# Antimony supply shortages persist after a 2,600% price spike; tungsten APT surged 557% as Almonty commissioned South Korea's Sangdong mine
> China's controls on antimony created ongoing shortages a year on; tungsten hit $450/MTU and the US banned Chinese tungsten from defence procurement from January 2027. Almonty's Sangdong Phase 1 in South Korea targets 40% of ex-China supply

**Meta:** type: story · date: 2026-06-23 · heads: التحوّل الصامت, ما لا يقولونه · 7 takes · 4 lenses · 3 regions

## Summary

China controls over 80% of global [Antimony](/ar/entity/antimony) production and approximately 80% of refined [Tungsten](/ar/entity/tungsten) output. Export controls on both metals, imposed progressively since 2023-2025, created persistent supply shortages and price spikes that no non-Chinese producer has yet bridged at scale. Antimony peaked at $59,750 per tonne in July 2025, up 2,600% from the $2,200/t range that prevailed before controls, and supply shortages continued through June 2026 despite a nominal US-China trade-truce suspension of the US-specific ban. Antimony is used in military munitions primers, tracer bullets, flame retardants, lead-acid battery plates, and antimony-trioxide fire retardants in semiconductor packaging. Tungsten ammonium paratungstate (APT) broke $450/MTU and powder reached approximately $55,000/tonne, up 557% since China added tungsten to its export control list in February 2025; simultaneous wartime depletion of stocks in Ukraine and Iran conflicts amplified the price effect. The US placed a January 1, 2027 deadline on excluding Chinese, Russian, Iranian, and North Korean tungsten from defence procurement. Almonty Industries completed Phase 1 commissioning of the Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea on March 17, 2026, the first Korean tungsten production in over 30 years, with Phase 2 targeting 40% of ex-China global supply by 2027.

## The split

US and European defence analysts frame the antimony-tungsten squeeze as the next stage of China's sequential critical-minerals leverage strategy, following the template proven with gallium and germanium: establish controls, let prices spike, then negotiate from a position of market power. Chinese government commentary presents both controls as normal export management practices consistent with WTO rules. Southeast Asian producers (Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar for antimony; South Korea for tungsten via Almonty Sangdong) are positioned as the medium-term alternative, but their timelines are 2027-2028. The OilPrice analysis notes antimony's ammunition-supply dimension: Western defence contractors cannot quickly substitute for antimony in munitions without reformulating chemical processes that have not changed in decades. For tungsten, the hardmetals and cutting-tool industry (drills, milling inserts, wire-draw dies) is a civilian demand far larger than defence, spreading exposure broadly across manufacturing.

## By the numbers

- $59,750/t, antimony peak price, July 2025 (up 2,600% from pre-controls).
- $450/MTU, tungsten APT price in 2026 (up 557% from 2024 lows).
- ~$55,000/t, tungsten powder price in 2026.
- 80%+, China's share of global refined antimony and refined tungsten production.
- 200+, types of military munitions using antimony as a component.
- 2,300 tpa, Almonty Sangdong Phase 1 concentrate output.
- 40%, Sangdong Phase 2 projected share of ex-China global tungsten demand.
- January 1, 2027, US defence procurement ban on Chinese/Russian/Iranian/North Korean tungsten.

## Why it matters

[Antimony](/ar/entity/antimony) and [tungsten](/ar/entity/tungsten) sit at the intersection of defence manufacturing and industrial production in ways that rare earths do not: their removal from supply chains requires not just substitution of materials but requalification of products (ammunition, cutting tools) across entire industrial bases. The 2,600% antimony price spike has already repriced lead-acid batteries and fire retardants globally; the 557% tungsten move has repriced every hardmetal tool sold to manufacturing industry. Unlike gallium or germanium, where military applications are concentrated in a few chip types, antimony and tungsten are embedded in mass-volume industrial processes that cannot be renegotiated in short timeframes. The [East-West price bifurcation](/ar/n/gallium-germanium-bifurcation-2026) playing out in gallium and germanium is now replicating across both metals.

## What to watch

- Almonty Sangdong Phase 2 (2027) commissioning: whether it delivers 4,600 tpa and how quickly offtake contracts reach defence buyers.
- US defence procurement ban (January 2027): how US hardmetal and munitions manufacturers source tungsten in the transition period.
- Antimony supply from Southeast Asia: whether Vietnam and Laos can expand antimony trioxide capacity to materially reduce ex-China price premiums.
- China's November 2026 decision on US-specific ban suspension: whether antimony reverts to outright US ban alongside the gallium-germanium review.

## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens)

### unlabelled
- **PR Newswire / Fastmarkets** (United States, en) — Primary supply-shortage report released June 23, 2026: ongoing antimony supply shortages persist despite the nominal US-China trade-truce suspension. Antimony peaked at $59,750/t in July 2025 (up 2,600% from pre-control levels of roughly $2,200/t in 2023); Southeast Asian capacity in Vietnam, Laos, and Myanmar is ramping antimony trioxide output but ex-China refining remains narrow.
  Source: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/chinas-export-controls-on-antimony-cause-supply-shortages-302807913.html
- **BusinessWire / Almonty Industries** (Canada, en) — Almonty Industries' Sangdong mine in Gangwon Province, South Korea, completed Phase 1 commissioning with a ceremony on March 17, 2026, the first South Korean tungsten production after 30+ years. Phase 1 produces approximately 2,300 tonnes of concentrate per year. Phase 2 (2027) doubles to 4,600 tpa. At full capacity, Sangdong is projected to supply approximately 40% of ex-China global tungsten demand.
  Source: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260316607350/en/Almonty-Completes-Phase-1-of-Sangdong-Tungsten-Mine-in-South-Korea
- **Mining.com** (Canada, en) — 
  Source: https://www.mining.com/sangdong-tungsten-mine-in-south-korea-returns-to-production-after-30-years/
- **CSIS** (United States, en) — 
  Source: https://www.csis.org/analysis/beyond-rare-earths-chinas-growing-threat-gallium-supply-chains

### national security / supply chain
- **CNBC** (United States, en) — CNBC investigation on tungsten's price surge: up 557% since China added tungsten products to its export control list in February 2025. China allows only 15 firms to export tungsten in 2026-2027. The US bans Chinese, Russian, Iranian, and North Korean tungsten from defence procurement effective January 1, 2027. APT (ammonium paratungstate) prices broke $450/MTU.
  > "Tungsten is up 557% since China's February 2025 controls and the US banned Chinese tungsten from defence procurement from January 2027."
  Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/03/china-metals-national-security-defense-weapons-supply-tungsten.html

### commodity markets
- **CNBC** (United States, en) — Feature placing tungsten alongside sulfur and helium as indicators of China's supply-chain leverage. APT prices breaking $450/MTU; tungsten powder near $55,000/tonne, up 500%+ from 2024 lows. Notes that simultaneous depletion of tungsten stocks through Ukraine and Iran conflicts has amplified the export-control price effect.
  > "Tungsten APT at $450/MTU and powder near $55,000/tonne, up over 500% from 2024 lows, as Chinese controls intersect with war-driven stock depletion."
  Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/31/commodities-price-of-tungsten-sulfur-and-helium.html

### geopolitical-commodities
- **OilPrice.com** (Global, en) — Analysis connecting China's antimony export-control playbook (ban, then price spike, then selective licensing) to the trajectory being run with rare earths. Notes antimony's role in over 200 types of military munitions (primers, tracer bullets, flame retardants in munitions casings), making it particularly sensitive for Western defence procurement. Southeast Asian producers are filling the gap slowly.
  > "China ran the antimony export-control playbook to completion, prices spiked 2,600%, and the same strategy is now being applied to rare earths."
  Source: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Chinas-Antimony-Ban-Sent-Prices-Up-2600-Rare-Earths-Are-Next.html

## Across the graph
- Related: [[china-rare-earth-controls]], [[gallium-germanium-bifurcation-2026]], [[us-minerals-price-floor-allies]]
- Entities: Antimony, Tungsten

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Canonical: https://rbtfl.xyz/ar/n/antimony-tungsten-controls-2026