# Counterspace arms race accelerates as China and Russia stay out of the ASAT moratorium
> 35+ states pledge no destructive ASAT tests; US fields satellite jammers; Russia's nuclear-ASAT concern persists

**Meta:** type: event · date: 2026-06-25 · heads: اللعبة الطويلة, كيف تنتهي الحروب فعلاً · 8 takes · 3 lenses · 3 regions

## Summary

The contest over [counterspace](/ar/entity/asat) weapons is sharpening. As of early 2026, 35+ states have
pledged to observe a moratorium on destructive [ASAT](/ar/entity/asat) testing, but [China](/ar/entity/china) and
[Russia](/ar/entity/russia) have not joined, Russia dismissing it as an attempt to constrain competitors,
China not formally responding. All four confirmed kinetic ASAT tests (US 1985, China 2007, India
2019, Russia 2021) created lasting debris. The [US Space Force](/ar/entity/space-force) is accelerating
counterspace deployment under the Trump policy, fielding three electronic satellite jammers to
match China and Russia. Concern persists over a possible Russian nuclear ASAT, which would
indiscriminately threaten LEO. The [New START expiry](/ar/n/new-start-expiry-aftermath) in 2026 and the
[Golden Dome](/ar/n/golden-dome-architecture-2026) space layer add urgency: orbit is becoming a
contested warfighting domain with norms failing to keep pace.

## By the numbers

- 35+, states pledging no destructive ASAT tests; China and Russia outside.
- 4, confirmed destructive kinetic ASAT tests (US, China, India, Russia).
- 3, electronic satellite jammers the US Space Force is fielding.
- 2026, New START expiry, removing the last big arms-control restraint.

## Why it matters

A single nuclear or large kinetic ASAT event could render a LEO shell unusable for years, hitting
[navigation](/ar/n/gps-jamming-aviation-2026), [missile
warning](/ar/n/space-force-missile-warning-budget-2026) and broadband at once. With the moratorium partial and [arms
control](/ar/n/new-start-expiry-aftermath) lapsing, deterrence is replacing restraint.

## What to watch

- Any new destructive ASAT test or on-orbit weapon demonstration.
- Movement (or not) on Russia's alleged nuclear-ASAT capability.
- Whether US offensive counterspace fielding triggers reciprocal moves.

## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens)

### unlabelled
- **Secure World Foundation** (United States, en) — Authoritative FAQ on Russia's alleged nuclear anti-satellite weapon, the open-source baseline on what is and isn't known, and why a nuclear ASAT would indiscriminately threaten the LEO satellite population.
  Source: https://www.swfound.org/publications-and-reports/faq-what-we-know-about-russias-alleged-nuclear-anti-satellite-weapon
- **Lieber Institute (West Point)** (United States, en) — 
  Source: https://lieber.westpoint.edu/russias-nuclear-anti-satellite-weapon-international-law/
- **ASPI (The Strategist)** (Australia, en) — 
  Source: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-ramifications-of-russias-reckless-anti-satellite-test/
- **CSIS (Averting Day Zero)** (United States, en) — 
  Source: https://nuclearnetwork.csis.org/averting-day-zero-preventing-a-space-arms-race/
- **Orbital Radar** (Global, en) — 
  Source: https://orbitalradar.com/anti-satellite-weapons
- **Wikipedia (Anti-satellite weapon)** (Global, en) — 
  Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-satellite_weapon

### US think-tank
- **CSIS** (United States, en) — Argues the space domain has entered an 'anti-satellite age' of proliferating counterspace capability, kinetic, electronic and cyber, and that norms are failing to keep pace, the establishment US framing of the threat.
  > "The world has moved from the space age into an anti-satellite age, with norms lagging proliferating counterspace weapons."
  Source: https://www.csis.org/analysis/space-age-anti-satellite-age

### US conservative
- **Washington Times** (United States, en) — Reports the US racing to field space weapons, including three electronic satellite jammers, to counter China and Russia's counterspace lead, the hawkish read pushing for offensive parity over arms control.
  > "The US is fielding satellite jammers and racing to build space weapons to match China and Russia's counterspace power."
  Source: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/feb/11/us-racing-build-space-weapons-counter-anti-satellite-power-china/

## Across the graph
- Related: [[space-force-missile-warning-budget-2026]], [[golden-dome-architecture-2026]], [[new-start-expiry-aftermath]], [[gps-jamming-aviation-2026]]
- Entities: Asat, Space Force, Russia, China, United States

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Canonical: https://rbtfl.xyz/ar/n/counterspace-asat-arms-race-2026