# Desert locust upsurge subsides after the 2019-2021 crisis but FAO warns of persistent risk in the Horn of Africa and Arabian Peninsula as breeding conditions remain favorable > The 2019-2021 desert locust crisis, the worst in 70 years, destroyed crops across East Africa, Yemen, and South Asia; by 2022 the upsurge was officially controlled, but FAO's Desert Locust Watch through 2024-2025 documented continued breeding in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Sudan, localised outbreaks in Eritrea and Djibouti, and a spring 2025 surge in southern Arabia that required emergency aerial spraying across Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Oman; the structural drivers of rapid population growth, La Nina rainfall patterns, and reduced surveillance capacity in conflict zones remain **Meta:** type: story · date: 2025-06-01 · heads: اللعبة الطويلة, ما الذي تعطّل · 7 takes · 5 lenses · 3 regions ## Summary The desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) crisis of 2019-2021 was the most severe in East Africa and the Arabian Peninsula in 70 years, destroying crops worth an estimated $8.5 billion across East Africa, Yemen, India, and Pakistan. By 2022, FAO declared the upsurge officially controlled following extensive aerial spraying campaigns. However, FAO's Desert Locust Watch documented continued low-level breeding activity in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Sudan through 2024-2025, with a spring 2025 breeding surge in the Arabian Peninsula requiring emergency aerial and ground spraying operations in Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Oman. Climate researchers have identified the 2019-2021 upsurge as partly driven by unusual cyclone activity in the Arabian Peninsula in 2018, creating breeding habitat in normally barren areas, and warned that climate change is increasing the frequency of the rainfall anomaly events that trigger locust population explosions. ## The split FAO and national plant protection organisations in affected countries framed the post-2021 locust situation as a success story in early warning and coordinated response, arguing that the EMPRES system and rapid aerial spraying prevented the 2024-2025 Arabian Peninsula surge from becoming a new upsurge comparable to 2019-2021. Agricultural and environmental researchers argued that the success was contingent on continued surveillance investment and that surveillance capacity in the conflict-affected areas of Yemen, Sudan, and parts of Somalia, which are often the initial breeding sites for the largest upsurges, remained dangerously degraded. Climate scientists warned that the 2019-2021 event was a preview of more frequent and severe locust crises as climate change increases extreme rainfall variability in the locust breeding belt. ## By the numbers - $8.5 billion: crop and pasture losses from the 2019-2021 East Africa/Yemen/South Asia desert locust crisis - 70 years: how long East Africa had not seen a locust crisis of comparable severity before 2019 - 2022: year FAO declared the 2019-2021 upsurge officially controlled - Spring 2025: new breeding surge in the Arabian Peninsula requiring emergency response - Affected 2019-2021: Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, Yemen, India, Pakistan - 2018 Cyclones Mekunu and Luban (Arabia): primary trigger for the 2019-2021 upsurge ## Why it matters The desert [Locusts](/ar/entity/locusts) threat is one of the world's most acute food security risks because desert locust swarms can travel up to 150 km per day and a single swarm of one square kilometre contains approximately 40 million locusts that consume as much food per day as 35,000 people. The locust belt, spanning from West Africa through East Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and South Asia to India and Pakistan, overlaps with some of the world's highest concentrations of food-insecure populations and some of the most conflict-affected countries, including Yemen, Sudan, Somalia, and Eritrea. Climate change-driven increases in the frequency of the triggering rainfall events represent a structural upward shift in the locust risk baseline that will require sustained investment in EMPRES early warning, surveillance, and rapid-response capacity to manage. ## What to watch - FAO Desert Locust Watch monthly situation reports for Horn of Africa and Arabian Peninsula through the 2026 spring breeding season - Whether the 2025 Arabian Peninsula surge generates any long-distance swarm movements toward East Africa or South Asia - How Sudan's civil war (ongoing since April 2023) is affecting ground surveillance capacity in Sudanese locust breeding zones - Whether donors sustain FAO EMPRES funding at the post-2019 enhanced levels or revert to pre-crisis underfunding ## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens) ### UN food agency; operates the global Desert Locust monitoring system, the definitive source for locust situation assessment and early warning - **FAO Desert Locust Watch** (International, en) — FAO's Desert Locust Watch documented a continued breeding presence in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Sudan through 2024-2025, following the official end of the 2019-2021 upsurge. The Watch flagged that spring 2025 rainfall in the Arabian Peninsula triggered a new locust breeding season in Yemen and Oman, requiring aerial and ground spraying operations coordinated by FAO EMPRES (Emergency Prevention System for Transboundary Animal and Plant Pests and Diseases). FAO noted that surveillance capacity in conflict-affected areas of Yemen, Sudan, and parts of Somalia remains severely degraded, creating blind spots in the early warning system. > "FAO Desert Locust Watch: spring 2025 Arabian Peninsula breeding surge required emergency aerial spraying; surveillance blind spots in conflict zones remain." Source: https://www.fao.org/locusts/en/ ### International scientific community on locust ecology; peer-reviewed data on population dynamics, breeding ecology, and climate-locust interactions - **ACRIDOLOGIE (locust research bulletin)** (International, en) — Research published in locust ecology literature documented that the 2019-2021 upsurge was triggered by a combination of unusual cyclone activity in the Arabian Peninsula (2018 Cyclones Mekunu and Luban), which created exceptionally wet conditions in Rub' al Khali and other normally barren areas, followed by abnormal rainfall across East Africa and South Asia. The research found that climate change was increasing the frequency of the cyclone and anomalous rainfall events that drive locust breeding habitat expansion, suggesting that upsurge frequency would increase. > "Research: 2019-2021 upsurge driven by unusual cyclones in Arabia plus East Africa rainfall anomalies; climate change increasing frequency of such triggering events." Source: https://www.locust-ecology.net/ ### East Africa regional climate centre with dedicated locust monitoring function; combines climate forecasts with locust habitat modelling - **IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC)** (Africa, en) — ICPAC's locust early warning products documented that the post-2021 locust situation in the Horn of Africa was characterised by recession-level populations with periodic breeding activity rather than upsurge-level risk. ICPAC flagged that the cumulative impact of several years of La Nina rainfall and the 2024 Indian Ocean Dipole created conditions in Somalia and Ethiopia that supported breeding through mid-2025, requiring monthly ground surveillance and aerial spraying operations by national plant protection organisations. > "ICPAC: post-2021 Horn of Africa locust situation shows recession-level populations with periodic breeding; La Nina and IOD created sustained habitat through mid-2025." Source: https://www.icpac.net/topics/locusts/ ### International development organisation with ground presence in locust-affected East Africa; food security and humanitarian impact assessment - **Oxfam (locust food security impact)** (International, en) — Oxfam's East Africa locust impact assessment documented that the 2019-2021 crisis had destroyed crops and pasture worth an estimated $8.5 billion across East Africa, Yemen, India, and Pakistan. Even after the upsurge was controlled, the continuing low-level locust presence in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Sudan created ongoing food insecurity risk for communities already coping with drought, conflict, and COVID-19 economic disruption. Oxfam called for sustained funding for FAO's EMPRES early warning and response system, which had been under-resourced in the years before the 2019 upsurge. > "Oxfam: 2019-2021 locust crisis caused $8.5B in crop and pasture losses across East Africa, Yemen, India, and Pakistan." Source: https://www.oxfam.org/en/what-we-do/emergencies/east-africa-locust-crisis ### unlabelled - **FAO EMPRES Desert Locust (global situation update)** (International, en) — Source: https://www.fao.org/ag/locusts/en/info/info/index.html - **Desert Locust Wikipedia** (International, en) — Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desert_locust - **CIRAD (French agricultural research) locust** (France, en) — Source: https://www.cirad.fr/en/our-research/themes/locusts ## Across the graph - Entities: Locusts --- Canonical: https://rbtfl.xyz/ar/n/desert-locust-east-africa-2024