# Kalshi doubles to $22bn in five months and targets $40bn as prediction markets hit mainstream
> The YC W19 company led by Tarek Mansour raised $1bn from Coatue, Sequoia and a16z; 90% of US prediction market volume flows through its exchange

**Meta:** type: event · date: 2026-03-19 · heads: أموال من, التحوّل الصامت · 5 takes · 3 lenses · 2 regions

## Summary

[Kalshi](/ar/entity/kalshi), a federally regulated prediction market exchange and Y Combinator W19 alumnus, raised $1bn in a Series F on or around 19 March 2026 at a $22bn valuation, led by Coatue and joined by [Sequoia](/ar/entity/sequoia), [A16z](/ar/entity/a16z) and Paradigm. The round doubled Kalshi's valuation from the $11bn it achieved in December 2025. Annualised revenue now exceeds $1.5bn; institutional trading volume grew 800% in the six months to closing. Kalshi holds over 90% of US prediction market activity. The company's CFTC-regulated exchange status underpins institutional demand: hedge funds, family offices and asset managers can use Kalshi inside a compliance framework that crypto-native rivals such as Polymarket cannot offer. By June 2026, Kalshi was reported to be in talks for a new round at a $40bn valuation, which would nearly double the March mark in under three months.

## The split

US fintech and crypto-oriented press both cover Kalshi positively but from different angles. Fintech outlets stress the regulatory moat; crypto outlets track Kalshi alongside Polymarket as rival bets on event-driven trading as a new asset class. No international voice offers a contrarian read; the main debate is regulatory, whether the CFTC will extend or restrict event-contract scope.

## By the numbers

- $1bn, Series F size.
- $22bn, post-money valuation (March 2026).
- $11bn, prior valuation (December 2025), implying a 2x in three months.
- $40bn, reported target valuation in talks as of June 2026.
- $1.5bn+, annualised revenue.
- 800%, growth in institutional trading volume over six months.
- 90%+, share of US prediction market activity.

## Why it matters

Kalshi is moving prediction markets from niche speculative vehicle to institutional derivatives product. If the $40bn round closes, the company will have quadrupled its valuation within six months, a compression that has few parallels in venture history and raises questions about how regulated event markets price systemic risk versus sentiment.

## What to watch

- Closing of the reported $40bn round and disclosed investors.
- CFTC rulemaking on the scope of federally regulated event contracts.
- Crypto-native rival Polymarket's next funding round and whether it seeks US regulation.
- Whether any major exchange or prime broker makes a strategic investment or acquisition offer.
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## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens)

### unlabelled
- **Kalshi (Series F announcement)** (United States, en) — Kalshi's own release on a $1bn Series F at a $22bn valuation. States annualised revenue exceeds $1.5bn, institutional trading volume has grown 800% over six months, and Kalshi holds over 90% of US prediction market activity and the majority of global volume.
  Source: https://news.kalshi.com/p/kalshi-raises-1-billion-22-billion-valuation-institutional-demand-surges
- **TechCrunch** (United States, en) — 
  Source: https://techcrunch.com/2026/05/07/kalshi-doubles-valuation-in-5-months-hitting-22-billion/
- **Cryptopolitan** (Global, en) — 
  Source: https://www.cryptopolitan.com/kalshi-targets-40-billion-valuation-in-new-funding-round/

### markets / fintech
- **Bloomberg** (United States, en) — First reported the $1bn raise and the $22bn valuation on March 19, noting the round doubles Kalshi's value from a December 2025 raise at $11bn. Lists Coatue as lead with Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz and Paradigm as co-investors.
  > "Kalshi raises $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation, doubling in value from December as institutional prediction market demand surges."
  Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-19/kalshi-gets-1-billion-in-new-funding-at-22-billion-valuation

### crypto / market structure
- **CoinDesk** (United States, en) — Frames the Kalshi raise in the context of the broader prediction market boom: crypto-native rivals like Polymarket and Manifold are growing fast globally, but Kalshi's CFTC-regulated status gives US institutional clients a compliance path that crypto-native exchanges cannot offer.
  > "Kalshi's CFTC regulation gives US institutions a compliant prediction market that crypto exchanges cannot match."
  Source: https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/03/20/kalshi-valuation-doubles-to-usd22-billion-in-latest-funding-round-bloomberg

## Across the graph
- Related: [[yc-s26-demo-day]]
- Entities: Kalshi, Crypto Web3, Fintech, Growth Stage

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Canonical: https://rbtfl.xyz/ar/n/kalshi-prediction-markets-2026