# Argentina's consumer confidence falls 4.8% in July as oil-driven market turmoil lifts country risk above 400 points > Argentina's University Torcuato Di Tella consumer confidence index fell 4.8% in July 2026, snapping three months of consecutive gains; future expectations dropped 7.2% against June; the Merval fell 1.78% on July 24 as Iran-war oil turbulence drove country risk above 400 points, the peso sliding to 1,489 per US dollar **Meta:** type: event · date: 2026-07-23 · heads: How Life Changes, The Quiet Shift · 5 takes · 3 lenses · 3 regions ## Summary [Argentina](/en/entity/country/argentina)'s University Torcuato Di Tella consumer confidence index fell 4.8% in July 2026, ending three consecutive months of gains, with Argentines citing a perceived drop in purchasing power as the main cause; future expectations fell 7.2% against June. The decline arrived alongside market turbulence driven by the Iran war: the Merval equity index fell 1.78% on July 24, dragged by a sell-off in Tesla's CEDEAR shares, and the Argentine peso slipped 0.43% to 1,489 per US dollar. Country risk rose above 400 basis points, pulling Argentine bonds lower. [Javier Milei](/en/entity/person/javier-milei)'s stabilization program had been producing consumer confidence gains through May, but the combination of a global oil shock and softer local demand signals has complicated the narrative heading into mid-2026. ## The split Infobae frames the story as an external shock: global oil prices and Middle East war, not domestic policy failure, driving the country risk move above 400 points. The Buenos Aires Herald leads with the survey numbers and their implications for future expectations, the indicator most relevant to investment decisions. Sin Embargo, writing from Mexico, contextualises the week as a combined political and economic setback for Milei, suggesting external observers see the two as linked. ## By the numbers - 4.8%, July fall in the Torcuato Di Tella consumer confidence index vs June - 7.2%, drop in future expectations vs June, the sharpest sub-component fall - 400+, basis points country risk rose to on July 23 - 1,489, pesos per US dollar on July 24, down 0.43% on the day - 1.78%, Merval fall on July 24 ## Why it matters Three consecutive months of consumer confidence gains were central to [Javier Milei](/en/entity/person/javier-milei)'s argument that his austerity program was producing visible results for ordinary Argentines. A reversal driven partly by external factors (oil, global risk-off) and partly by purchasing-power perceptions tests whether the recovery is durable or fragile in the face of a global commodity shock. Country risk above 400 basis points is tracked by debt markets as the level at which refinancing costs start to rise sharply, directly affecting [Argentina's ability to roll over its obligations](/en/n/argentina-debt-financing-jul2026). ## What to watch - Whether August's Di Tella index confirms a trend reversal or July is a one-month blip - Whether country risk stays above 400 basis points and affects Argentina's bond auctions - Whether the Milei government announces any consumer-side fiscal support in response to purchasing-power concerns - Whether the peso's managed slide accelerates if oil stays near US$100 ## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens) ### Argentina's largest digital news outlet; reports the Torcuato Di Tella index figures and the country risk rising above 400 points on the same day - **Infobae** (Argentina, es) — Infobae links the global oil spike to Argentina's markets in real time: the article reports that global market tensions and Brent's jump to US$100 pushed Argentina's country risk above 400 points and dragged bonds and equities lower, the direct transmission channel from the Iran war to Milei's recovery narrative. The 400-point level is tracked by Argentines as a signal of debt-service risk. > "La tensión en los mercados globales y el salto del petróleo hicieron subir al riesgo país, que se aleja de los 400 puntos. Bajan los bonos y las acciones." Source: https://www.infobae.com/economia/2026/07/23/la-tension-en-los-mercados-globales-y-el-salto-del-petroleo-hicieron-subir-al-riesgo-pais-que-se-aleja-de-los-400-puntos/ ### Argentina's English-language paper; reports the Torcuato Di Tella survey and highlights the 7.2% drop in future expectations - **Buenos Aires Herald** (Argentina, en) — The Buenos Aires Herald provides the English-language summary of the Di Tella index: a 4.8% fall in consumer confidence in July, breaking three months of gains, with Argentines citing a perceived decline in purchasing power as the driver and future expectations falling 7.2% against June. The English framing reaches international investors and bondholders who track the Herald as their Argentina signal. > "Argentines said their drop in trust responds mostly to macroeconomic conditions, and future expectations plummeted 7.2% compared to June." Source: https://buenosairesherald.com/economics/consumer-trust-falls-nearly-5-in-july-due-to-bleak-future-expectations ### unlabelled - **Infobae** (Argentina, es) — Source: https://www.infobae.com/economia/2026/07/23/la-confianza-del-consumidor-cayo-48-en-julio-como-se-evalua-la-situacion-personal/ - **Rio Times Online** (Brazil, en) — Source: https://www.riotimesonline.com/argentina-markets-merval-peso-friday-july-24-2026/ - **Sin Embargo** (Mexico, es) — Source: https://www.sinembargo.mx/4702723/la-argentina-de-milei-cierra-semana-con-debacle-politica-y-devaluacion-en-la-puerta/ ## Across the graph - Related: [[brent-crude-100-iran-0724]], [[milei-imf-second-review]], [[argentina-debt-financing-jul2026]] - Entities: Country:argentina, Person:javier Milei --- Canonical: https://rbtfl.xyz/en/n/argentina-consumer-confidence-jul2026