# Brazil's Copom set to cut Selic to 14.00% on August 5, fourth straight rate reduction > A Reuters poll of economists published August 3 shows consensus for a fourth consecutive 25bp cut by Brazil's central bank, which would bring the Selic benchmark rate to 14.00%; market analysts trimmed their 2026 year-end Selic forecast for the first time since March, reflecting persistent inflation risks that could slow the easing path after August **Meta:** type: event · date: 2026-08-03 · heads: Whose Money, The Quiet Shift · 5 takes · 4 lenses · 4 regions ## Summary [Brazil's Copom](/en/entity/banco-central-do-brasil) monetary policy committee is expected to cut the Selic benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 14.00% at its August 5 meeting, which would mark four consecutive reductions in the current easing cycle. A Reuters poll of economists published August 3 showed near-unanimous consensus for the cut. On the same day, analysts trimmed their 2026 year-end Selic forecast for the first time since March, reflecting concerns that persistent inflation risks, including commodity prices and fiscal spending ahead of [October's election](/en/n/brazil-2026-lula-bolsonaro-runoff), could constrain the pace of further easing. The August cut itself is not in question: every Brazilian and international outlet surveyed this cycle expects [Governor Galipolo](/en/entity/gabriel-galipolo) to deliver it. ## The split International wire coverage, led by Reuters, framed the decision as a clean consensus read. Brazilian domestic outlets gave more space to the forward-guidance nuance: that the year-end Selic forecast has started to creep upward, implying the easing cycle may end sooner or at a higher rate than markets anticipated in March. StoneX flagged the Copom decision as the principal FX driver for the Brazilian real against the US dollar for the week of August 3-9. ## By the numbers - 14.00%, expected Selic rate after August 5 decision (down from 14.25%) - 4, consecutive Selic cuts if August 5 decision is confirmed - First downward revision to 2026 year-end Selic forecasts since March 2026 - 25bp, expected size of the August cut ## Why it matters [Brazil's central bank](/en/entity/banco-central-do-brasil) is navigating election-year fiscal pressure, sticky services inflation and a global rate cycle that has turned more cautious. A fourth straight cut signals that [Galipolo](/en/entity/gabriel-galipolo) has maintained credibility while delivering easing, but the shift in year-end expectations shows markets are no longer certain how far the cycle runs. For [President Lula](/en/entity/person/lula), a slower easing path narrows the fiscal and monetary space available to support growth in the run-up to October. ## What to watch - Copom statement language on August 5, particularly any change to forward guidance on pace - Whether the revised year-end Selic forecast continues to drift higher in subsequent surveys - Brazilian real movement on and after the decision date - New fiscal data from the government that could alter the inflation outlook ## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens) ### Reuters poll of economists with Buenos Aires byline; the fullest account of the consensus and year-end Selic forecast revision - **Reuters (via 933 The Drive)** (Argentina / Global, en) — A Reuters poll of economists, bylined from Buenos Aires, found consensus that Brazil's Copom will cut the Selic rate for a fourth straight meeting on August 5, bringing it to 14.00%; analysts also trimmed their 2026 year-end Selic forecast for the first time since March, reflecting inflation risks that could compress the easing path beyond August. > "Brazil's central bank is set to cut interest rates for a fourth consecutive meeting on August 5, a Reuters poll showed, bringing the Selic to 14.00%." Source: https://www.933thedrive.com/2026/08/03/brazil-central-bank-to-cut-rates-for-fourth-straight-meeting-on-august-5-reuters-poll/ ### Belo Horizonte-based Brazilian daily; reported the first downward revision to 2026 year-end Selic expectations since March, framing it as a sign of caution on the eve of the decision - **O Tempo** (Brazil, pt) — O Tempo reported that markets trimmed their 2026 year-end Selic expectations on the eve of the Copom meeting, the first such revision since March; analysts cited persistent inflationary risks but did not question the August cut itself, which remained near-certain consensus. > "Market trims 2026 Selic expectations for the first time since March, ahead of Wednesday's Copom decision." Source: https://www.otempo.com.br/economia/2026/8/3/nas-vesperas-do-copom-mercado-reduz-expectativa-para-selic-em-2026-pela-1-vez-desde-marco ### Brazilian fintech outlet; focused on the August cut expectation to 14.00% and on the inflation risks that could constrain future easing rounds - **Remessa Online** (Brazil, pt) — Remessa Online reported that the August Copom meeting is expected to deliver a Selic cut to 14.00% despite elevated inflation risks remaining present; the piece addressed why the cut is broadly expected even as the longer easing cycle faces uncertainty. > "The August Copom meeting should cut Selic to 14.00%, even with inflationary risks still on the radar." Source: https://www.remessaonline.com.br/blog/reuniao-copom-agosto-2026/ ### unlabelled - **StoneX** (United States, en) — Source: https://www.stonex.com/en-us/insights/fx-weekly-overview-brazil-issue-2026-08-03/ - **Bloomberg** (Global, en) — Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-03/brazil-analysts-cut-2026-selic-forecast-on-eve-of-rate-decision ## Across the graph - Related: [[lula-copom-selic-cut-1425]], [[lula-candidacy-0802]], [[brazil-2026-lula-bolsonaro-runoff]] - Entities: Brazil, Banco Central Do Brasil, Gabriel Galipolo --- Canonical: https://rbtfl.xyz/en/n/brazil-copom-0805