# COMEX copper stocks hit a record as the Section 232 clock runs down
> US warehouses hoard 652,000 tonnes while LME stocks drain into a three-month low

**Meta:** type: story · date: 2026-06-26 · heads: Whose Money, The Quiet Shift · 5 takes · 4 lenses · 4 regions

## Summary
[Copper](/en/entity/commodity/copper) inventories in US COMEX-registered warehouses hit a record 652,200 tonnes as of last week, up from about 80,000 tonnes in early 2025, while [LME](/en/entity/commodity/copper) stocks drained to a three-month low near 352,100 tonnes. The split is one trade: traders are front-running a possible US tariff on refined copper, pulling metal across the Atlantic and Pacific into American sheds. The Commerce Department must deliver its Section 232 copper report by June 30, the trigger for a phased refined-copper duty proposed at 15% in 2027 rising to 30% in 2028. Ore, concentrate, cathode and scrap stay exempt. Goldman Sachs lifted its year-end LME forecast to $13,735 a tonne and sees a path above $14,000 if duties land.

## The split
US-facing desks frame the inventory pile as bullish positioning into the tariff. China's SunSirs reads it as a top: once the duty is fixed, the stockpiling demand inflating COMEX evaporates and exposes the drained LME, a bull-to-bear turn. ING stresses the policy detail US coverage skips, that feedstock is exempt, so the squeeze is narrowly about refined metal and the arbitrage it created, not the whole copper chain.

## By the numbers
- 652,200 tonnes, record COMEX copper stocks, from about 80,000 in February 2025
- 352,100 tonnes, LME stocks, a three-month low
- June 30, deadline for the Commerce Section 232 report
- 15% to 30%, proposed refined-copper duty, 2027 then 2028
- 140,000 tonnes, average monthly US refined-copper imports since January 2025, nearly double 2024
- $13,735, Goldman's raised year-end LME forecast, with upside above $14,000

## Why it matters
Whoever controls refined copper controls the energy transition and the grid. The tariff threat has already relocated a chunk of the world's visible copper into the US, tightening everyone else's market and handing leverage to producers like [Codelco](/en/entity/codelco), [Freeport](/en/entity/corporate/freeport) and [Glencore](/en/entity/corporate/glencore). The June 30 report decides whether the distortion entrenches or unwinds.

## What to watch
- The Commerce report on or before June 30, and whether refined copper is included
- Whether the COMEX-LME spread collapses once the decision is known
- Chinese smelter behaviour as exempt cathode and concentrate flows reprice
- LME stock levels, already at a three-month low, for signs of a physical squeeze

## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens)

### Asia markets desk
- **TradingKey** (Hong Kong, en) — Asia-based markets service laying out the physical dislocation: COMEX copper stocks at a record 652,200 tonnes versus an LME three-month low of 352,100, the spread driven by traders front-running a possible refined-copper tariff. Cites Goldman's raised year-end LME forecast.
  > "COMEX copper inventories have climbed from around 80,000 tonnes in February 2025 to 652,200 tonnes, hitting a record high."
  Source: https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/commodities/metal/261993589-copper-inp-comex-lme-tin-tradingkey

### Chinese commodity-price agency
- **SunSirs** (China, zh) — Chinese pricing house framing the surge past $13,000 as a possible bull-to-bear inflection, warning that once the US tariff is finalised the stockpiling demand that inflated COMEX could reverse and leave the LME exposed. A China-buyer-side read absent from US coverage.
  > "Copper surged past $13,000 to a record high as US tariff signals hint at a possible bull-to-bear turning point."
  Source: https://www.sunsirs.com/m-pt/page/commodity-news-detail/commodity-news-detail-29740.html

### bank commodities strategy
- **ING THINK** (Netherlands, en) — ING walks through the Section 232 mechanics: ore, concentrate, cathode and scrap are exempt, with a phased duty on refined copper proposed at 15% from 2027 rising to 30% in 2028, pending the Commerce report due June 30. Flags the distortion of pulling global metal into US sheds.
  > "The Commerce Department must update its Section 232 recommendations by June 30, following proposals for refined-copper tariffs of 15% in 2027 rising to 30% in 2028."
  Source: https://think.ing.com/articles/whats-next-for-us-copper-import-tariffs/

### unlabelled
- **Reuters / Yahoo Finance** (United States, en) — 
  Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/copper-surges-fresh-record-inventories-080809067.html
- **Goldman Sachs** (United States, en) — 
  Source: https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/copper-prices-forecast-to-decline-from-record-highs-in-2026

## Across the graph
- Related: [[bhp-copper-record-jansen-2026]], [[copper-tcrc-zero]], [[cobre-panama-restart-2026]], [[kamoa-kakula-copper-smelter-2026]]
- Entities: Commodity:copper, Corporate:freeport, Codelco, Corporate:glencore

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