# USDA June 2026 cotton outlook projects 5.5% global production decline and tightest world stocks since 2018/19 > World cotton output forecast at 116 million bales for 2026/27, down from 121.9 million, as Australia, US and India post losses that China, Brazil and Pakistan only partly offset; mill use at a six-year high **Meta:** type: event · date: 2026-06-11 · heads: Whose Money, The Long Game · 6 takes · 3 lenses · 1 regions ## Summary The USDA Economic Research Service Cotton and Wool Outlook for June 2026 forecasts global [Cotton](/en/entity/commodity/cotton) production at 116.0 million bales for the 2026/27 marketing year, a decline of approximately 5.5 percent from the 121.9 million bales produced in 2025/26, which had been the highest output since 2012/13. The decline is driven by projected shortfalls in Australia, the United States and India, only partly offset by increases in China, Brazil and Pakistan. World cotton ending stocks are projected at 71.1 million bales, down 7 percent from the prior year and the lowest level since 2018/19. Against this tighter supply, world cotton mill use is forecast to increase by nearly 1.5 percent to 121.7 to 121.8 million bales, the highest figure in six years, as demand from South and Southeast Asian textile manufacturing continues to grow. Brazil is projected to export a record 15.0 million bales in 2026/27, accounting for approximately 34.5 percent of global trade. The US season-average farm price is projected at 73 cents per pound for 2026/27, and global cotton prices are expected to rebound toward 90 cents per pound from an estimated 80 cents in 2025/26, though US futures had slipped to the mid-60s from an 87.77-cent May peak. ## The split US cotton sector media and Texas A&M's Cotton Marketing Planner focused on the planning dilemma for American growers, who faced high input costs and uncertain futures prices following the May spike and pullback. Brazilian agribusiness media covered the country's record export projection as evidence of Brazil's growing dominance in global raw cotton trade, ahead of the United States in volume for a second consecutive year. South Asian textile industry press in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan tracked mill-use forecasts closely, with Pakistani producers noting that the combination of rising domestic production and strong global demand offered improved margins. African cotton-producing country media in West Africa's UEMOA zone covered the production outlook in relation to income for smallholder farmers in Burkina Faso, Mali and Côte d'Ivoire, who depend on export cotton prices set by reference to the USDA benchmark. ## By the numbers - 116.0 million bales, 2026/27 world cotton production forecast (USDA June 2026) - 5.5%, approximate decline from 2025/26 (121.9 million bales) - 71.1 million bales, 2026/27 world ending stocks (lowest since 2018/19, down 7%) - 121.8 million bales, 2026/27 world mill use (highest in 6 years) - 13.3 million bales, US 2026/27 production (down 4%) - 15.0 million bales, Brazil 2026/27 export forecast (record; 34.5% of global trade) - 73 cents per pound, US 2026/27 season-average farm price forecast - ~90 cents per pound, projected global price rebound for 2026/27 - 87.77 cents, near-two-year US futures high reached May 11, 2026 ## Why it matters [[Cotton]] is grown by an estimated 100 million smallholder farming households worldwide, predominantly in South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia, and is a critical export earner for low-income countries in West Africa and Central Asia. The USDA June 2026 forecast is the first major comprehensive market signal for the 2026/27 crop cycle and anchors pricing and planting decisions globally. The combination of tighter-than-expected stocks and higher projected mill use creates a constructive price environment for producers who can manage input costs, but the gap between forecasted prices (90 cents) and current futures (mid-60s) reflects market uncertainty about demand recovery and macroeconomic conditions in textile-importing countries. ## What to watch - Whether US futures prices recover toward the USDA price forecast or fall further on demand concerns - The extent to which Brazilian export volumes crowd out US and Australian cotton in Asian markets - Whether tighter global stocks translate to higher farm-gate prices for West African smallholder producers - USDA August WASDE revisions as Northern Hemisphere crop conditions become clearer ## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens) ### unlabelled - **USDA ERS (Cotton and Wool Outlook, June 2026)** (United States, en) — USDA Economic Research Service Cotton and Wool Outlook, June 2026: 2026/27 world cotton production forecast 116.0 million bales, down 5.5% from 121.9 million in 2025/26. World ending stocks projected 71.1 million bales, down 7% and lowest since 2018/19. World mill use forecast 121.8 million bales, up nearly 1.5%, the highest in six years. Brazil forecast to export a record 15.0 million bales (34.5% of global trade). US season-average farm price forecast 73 cents per pound. Production declines in Australia, US and India partly offset by gains in China, Brazil and Pakistan. Source: https://www.ers.usda.gov/media/29226/cws-26f.pdf - **USDA ERS Cotton and Wool Outlook May 2026** (United States, en) — Source: https://www.ers.usda.gov/media/20877/cws-26e.pdf - **University of Georgia CAES Field Report** (United States, en) — Source: https://fieldreport.caes.uga.edu/publications/AP130-4-04/2026-cotton-outlook/ - **National Cotton Council** (United States, en) — Source: https://www.cotton.org/news/releases/2026/world-economic-outlook-26.cfm ### US cotton sector research - **Texas A&M Cotton Marketing Planner** (United States, en) — 2026/27 cotton fundamentals analysis from Texas A&M: declining global stocks and higher projected prices at 90 cents per pound expected to incentivize planting in the 2026/27 growing season, but realized output is contingent on weather. Notes that US cotton futures had fallen to mid-60s cents per pound from an 87.77-cent near-two-year high on May 11, creating planning uncertainty for US growers managing input costs at elevated fertilizer prices. > "2026/27 fundamentals, outlook, and caveats: declining stocks could support prices." Source: https://cottonmarketing.tamu.edu/newcrop-fundamentals-outlook-and-caveats/ ### US commodity outlook - **USDA WASDE (June 2026)** (United States, en) — June 2026 WASDE confirms cotton figures consistent with ERS Cotton and Wool Outlook: world production 116.0 million bales, ending stocks 71.1 million bales. US production projection 13.3 million bales for 2026/27, 4 percent below the 2025/26 crop. Global mill use increase driven primarily by South and Southeast Asian processing capacity. > "World cotton ending stocks projected at 71.1 million bales, lowest since 2018/19." Source: https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795937/wasde0626v2.pdf ## Across the graph - Entities: Commodity:cotton --- Canonical: https://rbtfl.xyz/en/n/cotton-outlook-2026