# India on track for record 24 million tonne rice export year after lifting 2023 bans
> After a 14-month ban on non-basmati white rice exports that rattled global food markets in 2023-24, India progressively lifted all major restrictions; FY2025-26 exports are now forecast at 24 million tonnes, a record, and global prices are down 35%

**Meta:** type: story · date: 2026-04-28 · heads: The Quiet Shift, Whose Money · 11 takes · 5 lenses · 3 regions

## Summary

After a 14-month ban on non-basmati white rice exports and a separate ban on broken rice, India progressively dismantled its [export restriction](/en/entity/export-bans) regime between September 2024 and March 2025. The non-basmati white rice ban (imposed July 2023) was replaced by a $490-per-tonne minimum export price in September 2024, then the MEP was eliminated in October 2024 and parboiled rice export duties were removed. The broken rice ban, in place since August 2022, was lifted on March 7, 2025, via DGFT Notification 61/2024-25. From May 1, 2025, the government reimposed a 20% export duty on parboiled and milled rice as a partial retightening. USDA forecasts India's total [Rice](/en/entity/commodity/rice) exports for FY2025-26 at 24 million tonnes, a record, driven by record production of 143 million tonnes, competitive prices, and deliberate government stock liquidation. Global rice export prices fell 35% from their 2023-24 peaks as Indian supply returned. Pakistan's rice exports fell 46% in Q1 FY2025-26, the most direct victim of India's competitive re-entry. The [2026 kharif monsoon deficit](/en/n/india-monsoon-2026-kharif) raises a supply-side risk to the FY2026-27 rice crop, but FCI's large buffer stocks provide a cushion for domestic prices.

## The split

India's own trade data (DGFT, APEDA, USDA New Delhi office) show a clean arc of liberalisation and now record exports. IFPRI and FAO focus on the global food security damage caused by the 2023 ban, particularly in West Africa and South Asia, framing India's export controls as a precedent-setting unilateral restriction that the WTO's disciplines failed to prevent. Vietnam and Thailand are watching India's dominance uneasily: India's 24-million-tonne forecast dwarfs Thailand's 7-8 million tonnes and Vietnam's 8-9 million tonnes combined. Indonesia's reduced spot imports, driven by its own stock-building program, reduce demand from a key buyer.

## By the numbers

- 24 million tonnes, USDA forecast for India's FY2025-26 rice exports (record).
- 143 million tonnes, India's FY2025-26 rice production forecast.
- 35%, fall in global rice export prices from 2023-24 peak levels after India's liberalisation.
- 46%, fall in Pakistan's rice export volume in Q1 FY2025-26 after India's competitive re-entry.
- $490 per tonne, original MEP for non-basmati white rice exports (September 2024), since eliminated.
- 20%, export duty reimposed on parboiled and milled rice from May 1, 2025.
- 12 million tonnes, approximate basmati rice production in India FY2025-26 at $5.8 billion in export value.

## Why it matters

India's rice export policy, when it moves, moves global food prices. The 2023 ban raised rice costs for 140 million people in rice-importing countries across Africa and Asia. The 2024-25 liberalisation reversed that, but the partial parboiled duty (20%) still suppresses India's competitiveness in an important product category, and the [weakest kharif in 146 years](/en/n/india-monsoon-2026-kharif) creates genuine upside risk to domestic prices in FY2026-27, potentially prompting the next policy tightening.

## What to watch

- Whether the 20% parboiled rice export duty is removed or raised as the 2026 kharif season unfolds.
- FY2025-26 final export volumes vs the 24 million tonne forecast (final data due September 2026).
- Global rice benchmark prices (Thai 5% broken rice) as a signal of whether Indian supply is sustaining the price suppression.
- FCI's domestic stock levels: if they fall below trigger levels on a weak kharif harvest, a new export restriction is likely.

## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens)

### unlabelled
- **DGFT / PIB (non-basmati ban lifted Sep 2024)** (India, en) — PIB primary source: Government removed the floor price on basmati rice exports and, in September-October 2024, lifted the ban on non-basmati white rice exports (replacing the ban with a $490/tonne Minimum Export Price, then eliminating the MEP in October). Parboiled rice export duties removed in October 2024.
  Source: https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2054831&reg=3&lang=2
- **DGFT Notification 61/2024-25 (broken rice ban lifted)** (India, en) — Primary government source. DGFT Notification 61/2024-25 (March 7, 2025) amended export policy of broken rice (HS 1006 40 00) from 'Prohibited' to 'Free' with immediate effect under the Foreign Trade (Development and Regulation) Act, 1992. This was the last remaining blanket ban on rice; after March 7, 2025, all categories of rice were exportable. A 20% export duty on parboiled and milled rice was later reimposed from May 1, 2025.
  Source: https://content.dgft.gov.in/Website/dgftprod/9fcbf4f3-cdbc-460b-a63d-2c10a01d50f1/Notification%2061%20dated%2007.03.2025%20-English.pdf
- **Business Standard (parboiled duty reimposed)** (India, en) — 
  Source: https://www.business-standard.com/india-news/india-imposes-20-percent-export-duty-on-parboiled-and-milled-rice-125050100368_1.html
- **IBEF** (India, en) — 
  Source: https://ibef.org/news/india-s-rice-exports-to-rise-over-10-in-fy26-on-robust-global-demand
- **Export Genius** (India, en) — 
  Source: https://www.exportgenius.in/blog/global-rice-export-data-top-exporting-countries-market-trends.php
- **Dollar Business (top exporters)** (India, en) — 
  Source: https://in.thedollarbusiness.com/blogs/top-rice-exporting-countries/354398651089
- **USDA FAS (original ban)** (United States, en) — 
  Source: https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/india-india-bans-export-non-basmati-white-rice

### Indian agriculture trade press
- **Agro Spectrum India** (India, en) — Reports India's FY2025-26 rice export volumes dipping modestly in some months amid geopolitical freight disruptions (Hormuz war-risk premiums), while overall FY25-26 is projected at roughly 24 million tonnes. Notes Thailand's price softening as India's competitive re-entry suppressed premiums, and Indonesia's large rice storage build-out reducing its spot-import demand.
  > "India's rice exports dip amid geopolitical freight strain; Thailand sees price softening as India re-enters the global market at competitive prices."
  Source: https://agrospectrumindia.com/2026/04/28/indias-rice-exports-dip-amid-geopolitical-strain-thailand-sees-price-softening-as-indonesia-bets-big-on-storage-infrastructure.html

### US government, trade economics
- **USDA FAS** (United States, en) — USDA analysis documenting how India's 2023 ban drove rice export prices to a decade high, and the subsequent liberalisation. USDA projects India's 2025-26 rice production at 143 million tonnes and exports at 24 million tonnes, a record, as the government liquidates excess stocks and prices remain competitive against Vietnam and Thailand.
  > "India's rice export prices hit decade highs when it restricted trade; USDA now forecasts a record 24 million tonne export year for 2025-26."
  Source: https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/rice-export-prices-highest-more-decade-india-restricts-trade

### Global commodity markets
- **S&P Global Commodity Insights (broken rice ban lifted)** (United States, en) — Confirms DGFT lifted the export ban on 100% broken white rice on March 7, 2025, via Notification 61/2024-25. Global beneficiaries include China, Indonesia, and African nations that use broken rice for animal feed and ethanol feedstock. The broken rice lifting completed India's full exit from the blanket-ban regime.
  > "India lifted the export ban on 100% broken white rice on March 7, 2025, completing its exit from the blanket-ban regime."
  Source: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/030725-india-lifts-ban-on-100-broken-white-rice-exports

### Global food policy research
- **IFPRI** (Global, en) — IFPRI analysis of India's progressive rice export liberalisation: documents the 2023 ban's global impact (rice export prices hit decade highs, food insecurity concerns in West Africa and South Asia), and the 2024-25 unwinding. Projects global rice prices down 35% from peak levels as Indian supply re-entered the market, with Pakistan's rice exports falling 46% in Q1 after losing competitive ground.
  > "IFPRI: global rice prices fell 35% from peak as India's export liberalisation restored supply, with Pakistan's exports falling 46% in Q1 2025-26."
  Source: https://www.ifpri.org/blog/india-lifts-export-restrictions-on-rice/

## Across the graph
- Related: [[india-monsoon-2026-kharif]], [[india-wheat-record-harvest-2026]], [[india-sugar-export-ban-2026]], [[fao-food-prices]]
- Entities: Commodity:rice, Export Bans

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