# Japan's Typhoon 13 Dolphin forms in central Pacific, may hit Japan as super typhoon around the Obon holiday > Japan's Meteorological Agency designated Tropical Storm Dolphin as Typhoon 13 at 15:00 JST July 27, at 13.3°N 176.9°E; forecasters expect it to reach violent super-typhoon intensity by August 1 and diverge on whether it will approach Japan's main islands during the Obon travel period in mid-August **Meta:** type: event · date: 2026-07-27 · heads: How Life Changes, The Long Game · 10 takes · 6 lenses · 3 regions ## Summary Japan's 2026 typhoon season produced its 13th storm on July 27 when the Japan Meteorological Agency upgraded a tropical depression to Typhoon Dolphin at 13.3°N, 176.9°E in the central Pacific. The JMA forecasts the storm will intensify rapidly, reaching violent strength by August 1 near Minami-Torishima (Marcus Island, Japan). As of July 28 it is in the Marshall Islands region, moving west-southwest at 25 km/h through sea-surface temperatures above 30°C that will sustain development. Hong Kong named the storm Dolphin after the Chinese white dolphin. Forecast models from the JMA, the US Joint Typhoon Warning Center, and Europe's ECMWF diverge sharply on whether Dolphin tracks into Japan's main islands; private forecasters are careful not to rule it out during the Obon holiday travel window in mid-August. ## The split Japanese public forecasters (NHK, WeatherNews, Tenki.jp) emphasise the risk to Obon travellers and the storm's rapid-intensification potential, urging early preparation. International models (JTWC, ECMWF) remain in dispute on the northward turn that would send Dolphin toward Japan; News on Japan notes that "forecasts remain sharply divided." Dim Sum Daily highlights Hong Kong's naming authority and the storm's category, consistent with the city's focus on Pacific maritime risk. ## By the numbers - 13, typhoon number in Japan's 2026 season - 75 m/s, maximum wind gusts forecast by the JMA at peak intensity - 25 km/h, current movement speed in the Marshall Islands region as of July 28 - August 1, forecast date for Dolphin reaching violent super-typhoon intensity - 30°C+, sea-surface temperatures along the projected track, supporting rapid development ## Why it matters If Dolphin tracks toward Japan's main islands, it would arrive during the Obon holiday period (mid-August), Japan's peak domestic travel season, potentially disrupting transport and causing evacuation orders for coastal and mountainous prefectures. Japan is already tracking [Typhoon Noul's](/en/n/typhoon-noul-landfall-0726) aftermath in China; a second major Pacific storm in the same week indicates a hyperactive late-July Pacific typhoon season. ## What to watch - Whether the JMA, JTWC and ECMWF models converge on a northward track toward Japan in the next 48-72 hours. - Speed of intensification through the Marshall Islands and near Minami-Torishima: a faster-than-forecast intensification raises the risk of a Category 5-equivalent landfall. - Japan government activation of early-warning guidance for Obon travel, which would signal official confidence in a Japan approach. ## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens) ### official JMA formation announcement - **Japan Meteorological Agency via TV-U Yamagata / Yahoo Japan** (Japan, ja) — JMA designated Tropical Storm Dolphin as Typhoon 13 at 15:00 JST July 27 at 13.3°N, 176.9°E in the central Pacific. The agency forecasts gusts of up to 75 m/s as the storm intensifies; residents are urged to monitor the typhoon's development and track. > "台風第13号（ドルフィン）が発生しました。台風は1時間におよ… [Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin) has formed]" Source: https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/a65c3eb2ad9b6dd93565436de0782bf9b518b146 ### private Japanese forecaster, track and intensity - **WeatherNews** (Japan, ja) — At 21:00 JST July 27 Typhoon Dolphin is moving west near Midway Islands. WeatherNews forecasts it reaches 'violent' (猛烈) intensity near Minami-Torishima (Marcus Island) by August 1, tracking through sea-surface temperatures above 30°C that will sustain rapid intensification. > "発達して8月1日には南鳥島近海で猛烈な勢力となる予想。[Forecast to reach violent intensity near Minami-Torishima by August 1]" Source: https://weathernews.jp/news/202607/270341/ ### Hong Kong regional perspective, HK named the storm - **Dim Sum Daily** (Hong Kong, en) — Hong Kong's observatory named Tropical Storm Dolphin after the Chinese white dolphin. Regional agencies forecast it will strengthen to super-typhoon intensity and approach Japan in early August, with the South China Morning Post noting uncertainty in model consensus on the track. > "Tropical Storm Dolphin, named by Hong Kong after the Chinese white dolphin, formed on 27th July in the central Pacific and is expected by regional agencies to strengthen to super-typhoon intensity." Source: https://www.dimsumdaily.hk/hk%E2%80%91named-tropical-storm-dolphin-forecast-to-intensify-into-a-super-typhoon-and-track-towards-japan-in-early-august/ ### compares JMA, US military (JTWC), European (ECMWF) forecast models - **Fukui Shimbun** (Japan, ja) — As of 09:00 JST July 28 Typhoon Dolphin is in the Marshall Islands region, moving west-southwest at 25 km/h. The Fukui Shimbun compares the JMA, US Joint Typhoon Warning Center and European ECMWF forecasts; the three models diverge significantly on the track north of 20°N, producing high uncertainty for Japan. > "台風13号（ドルフィン）は2026年7月28日午前9時現在、マーシャル諸島を1時間に25キロの速さで西南西に進んでいる。[Moving west-southwest through Marshall Islands at 25 km/h as of 09:00 July 28]" Source: https://www.fukuishimbun.co.jp/articles/-/2660468 ### consumer-facing Obon travel risk - **Tenki.jp (Anko Ito, forecaster)** (Japan, ja) — Tenki.jp forecaster Anko Ito notes the typhoon will develop a strong-wind radius by July 29, intensify to 'very strong' by July 31, and may approach Japan's main islands around the Obon holiday (mid-August). She urges those planning domestic travel to monitor the storm's trajectory closely. > "お盆休み直前の日本列島に接近の可能性も。帰省の際は台風の動向に注意を。[May approach Japan just before Obon holiday; monitor track when travelling]" Source: https://tenki.jp/forecaster/k_itoh/2026/07/27/39887.html ### unlabelled - **NHK** (Japan, ja) — Source: https://news.web.nhk/newsweb/na/na-k10015187271000 - **Tenki.jp (current position tracker)** (Japan, ja) — Source: https://tenki.jp/bousai/typhoon/2613/ - **News on Japan** (Japan, en) — Source: https://newsonjapan.com/article/150126.php - **Japan Weather Association** (Japan, en) — Source: https://weather-jwa.jp/en/news/articles/post13375 - **Zoom Earth** (Global, en) — Source: https://zoom.earth/storms/dolphin-2026/ ## Across the graph - Related: [[typhoon-noul-landfall-0726]], [[typhoon-noul-guangdong-0724]] - Entities: Japan, Pacific Typhoons --- Canonical: https://rbtfl.xyz/en/n/japan-typhoon-dolphin-0727