# 402 Patriots in 16 days: the Iran war drains US interceptor stocks
> Operation Epic Fury burned through PAC-3 missiles faster than two years of production can replace

**Meta:** type: event · date: 2026-03-06 · heads: What Broke, Whose Money · 7 takes · 3 lenses · 1 regions

## Summary

The 2026 [Iran war](/en/n/oil-price-iran-ceasefire) (Operation Epic Fury) exposed how thin the
US [interceptor magazine](/en/entity/interceptor-stocks) is. The Payne Institute estimates US forces
fired ~402 [Patriot](/en/entity/patriot) interceptors in the first 16 days — a draw that Army budget
documents imply would take more than two years to replace at current contract rates.
[Lockheed Martin](/en/entity/lockheed-martin) builds roughly 600 PAC-3 a year (each ~$3.9M) against
an estimated inventory near 1,000 PAC-3/MSE, and aims to reach 2,000/year only over seven
years. Analysts (CSIS, AEI) frame the [drawdown](/en/head/what-broke) as a strategic warning: a
single regional air war strained the stockpile that also underwrites deterrence against
[China](/en/entity/china-nuclear-buildup). Supply constraints include test capacity and Chinese-
controlled gallium and germanium.

## By the numbers

- ~402 — Patriots fired in Epic Fury's first 16 days (Payne Institute).
- ~600/yr — current Lockheed PAC-3 output; target 2,000/yr in seven years.
- ~$3.9M — unit cost of a PAC-3 interceptor.
- ~1,000 — estimated US PAC-3/MSE inventory.
- 2+ years — to replace what was fired at current contract rates.

## Why it matters

Interceptors are the binding constraint of modern air defence. A magazine drained by one
[expensive](/en/head/whose-money) campaign cannot be quickly refilled, and the degradation is
gradual — more leakers get through as stocks tighten. It strains US ability to defend
allies and itself simultaneously across two theatres.

## What to watch

- Whether surge contracts and second sources actually lift output.
- Allied requests competing with US rebuild ([Israel](/en/n/iron-dome-tamir-rebuild-2026),
  Taiwan, Ukraine).
- Chinese export controls on gallium/germanium feeding the bottleneck.

## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens)

### unlabelled
- **CSIS — "Last Rounds? Status of Key Munitions at the Iran War Ceasefire"** (United States, en) — CSIS munitions audit at the Iran ceasefire: tallies interceptor expenditure (Patriot, THAAD, SM-3) against production rates and inventory — the authoritative open-source accounting of what was fired and how long replacement takes.
  Source: https://www.csis.org/analysis/last-rounds-status-key-munitions-iran-war-ceasefire
- **CNN** (United States, en) — 
  Source: https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/04/politics/missiles-weapons-stockpile-iran-us-war
- **Small Wars Journal** (United States, en) — 
  Source: https://smallwarsjournal.com/2026/03/27/magazine-depth-iran-missiles-stockpile-readiness/
- **Cronkite News (Arizona PBS)** (United States, en) — 
  Source: https://cronkitenews.azpbs.org/2026/03/27/missile-stockpile-depleted-iran-war/
- **The National Interest** (United States, en) — 
  Source: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/why-cant-america-make-more-interceptor-missiles-hk-062126

### defence trade
- **Military Times** (United States, en) — Reports the Payne Institute estimate of 402 Patriots fired in Epic Fury's first 16 days and frames the war as a 'race of attrition' the US magazine cannot sustain. Stresses the failure mode is degraded coverage, not sudden collapse.
  > "U.S. forces fired an estimated 402 Patriots in the operation's first 16 days; under current contracts it would take more than two years to replace that many."
  Source: https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2026/03/06/race-of-attrition-us-militarys-finite-interceptor-stockpile-is-being-tested/

### US defence hawk
- **AEI — "Running on Empty"** (United States, en) — Treats the drawdown as a strategic red flag for a potential Indo-Pacific fight: if a regional air war empties US stocks this fast, deterrence against China rests on a magazine that cannot be refilled quickly. Pushes for surge funding and second sources.
  > "If one regional campaign drains America's interceptor magazine, the deterrent against a larger adversary is hollow."
  Source: https://www.aei.org/articles/running-on-empty-americas-depleted-weapons-stocks-in-the-iran-war-are-a-strategic-red-flag/

## Across the graph
- Related: [[thaad-stockpile-drawdown-israel]], [[sm3-interceptor-production-surge]], [[iron-dome-tamir-rebuild-2026]], [[oil-price-iran-ceasefire]]
- Entities: Patriot, Interceptor Stocks, United States, Lockheed Martin, Iran, Israel

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