# US winter wheat harvest forecast at 1.048 billion bushels, smallest since 1965, as Plains drought cuts hard red winter crop 36%
> USDA's June 2026 WASDE report projects 2026-27 US winter wheat production at 1.048 billion bushels, down 25% from a year ago and the lowest since 1965, with hard red winter wheat in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas hardest hit; USDA projects the farm-gate average at US$6.50 per bushel for the marketing year

**Meta:** type: event · date: 2026-06-11 · heads: Whose Money, The Long Game · 5 takes · 3 lenses · 2 regions

## Summary

The US Department of Agriculture's June 2026 WASDE report projects the 2026-27 winter wheat harvest at 1.048 billion bushels, the smallest since 1965 and 25% below the 2025 crop. Hard red winter wheat, the variety grown across Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas that underpins US bread flour and export supply, came in at 514.8 million bushels, down 36% year on year. The collapse follows two consecutive La Nina-driven dry winters across the Southern Plains and worsening depletion of the Ogallala Aquifer, which irrigates large stretches of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. USDA projects the farm-gate average price at US$6.50 per bushel for the full 2026-27 marketing year, with ending stocks falling to a 15-year low.

## The split

US wheat growers and Plains state agricultural groups are pressing Washington for emergency credit facilities and accelerated crop insurance payouts, pointing to acreage abandonment rates that rival the early 1970s drought years. USDA frames the harvest as a supply correction within normal market parameters, projecting that higher prices will restore planted acreage in the 2027 planting cycle. International food-security analysts at FAO and WFP read the US shortfall differently: combined with the Hormuz shipping squeeze affecting Black Sea wheat route alternatives, the reduction tightens the global bread-grain balance sheet. Egypt, Algeria and Morocco have secured forward contracts with France and Australia; lower-income Sub-Saharan importers without hard-currency reserves for forward markets face open spot-price exposure.

## By the numbers

- 1.048 billion bushels, projected 2026-27 US winter wheat production (lowest since 1965).
- 25%, year-on-year decline in total US winter wheat.
- 514.8 million bushels, hard red winter wheat forecast, down 36%.
- 63%, share of US winter wheat in drought-affected areas as of June 9, 2026.
- 3.9 million, fewer acres planted in Texas versus 2025.
- 1.35 million, fewer acres planted in Oklahoma versus 2025.
- US$6.50 per bushel, USDA projected farm-gate average for 2026-27.
- US$7.20 per bushel, peak Chicago Board of Trade soft red winter futures in late April 2026.
- 15-year low, projected 2026-27 US wheat ending stocks.

## Why it matters

The US is the world's fourth-largest wheat exporter and the primary supplier of hard red winter wheat to Middle Eastern and North African markets. A 36% decline in that specific class, simultaneous with shipping insurance surcharges on Hormuz-routed vessels, removes two buffers that import-dependent governments rely on to stabilise domestic bread prices. Hard red winter wheat has no fast substitute: it is the class specified in most Middle Eastern flour-milling contracts, and the 2027 Southern Plains crop will not be harvested until June 2027 at the earliest. The Ogallala depletion dynamic means this is structural, not a single bad year.

## What to watch

- Whether Kansas and Colorado, which grow the largest share of hard red winter, record better or worse-than-projected final yields as harvest moves north through July.
- USDA's July WASDE update, which will incorporate actual harvest data from Texas and Oklahoma.
- FAO global cereal market monitor for second-half 2026, expected late July, which will integrate the US shortfall with Australian and French crop forecasts.
- Whether Sub-Saharan governments request emergency grain procurement support from the World Food Programme ahead of the September lean season.
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## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens)

### unlabelled
- **USDA Economic Research Service (WASDE / Wheat Yearbook)** (United States, en) — USDA ERS June 2026 Wheat Yearbook projects 2026-27 US winter wheat production at 1.048 billion bushels, the smallest crop since 1965 and 25% below the prior year. Hard red winter wheat is forecast at 514.8 million bushels, down 36% year on year. As of the June 9 condition report, 63% of US winter wheat was rated in drought-affected areas. The farm-gate average price is projected at US$6.50 per bushel for the full marketing year.
  > "2026/27 winter wheat production projected at 1.048 billion bushels, lowest since 1965; hard red winter at 514.8 million bushels, down 36 percent."
  Source: https://ers.usda.gov/media/29224/whs-26f.pdf
- **Reuters** (Global, en) — 
  Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/agriculture/usda-cuts-us-2026-hard-red-winter-wheat-forecast-2026-06-11/
- **Successful Farming** (United States, en) — 
  Source: https://www.agriculture.com/crops/wheat/usda-2026-wheat-crop-production-forecast

### US agriculture trade press covering Great Plains growers
- **Farm Progress** (United States, en) — Farm Progress broke down the state-level impact: Texas planted 3.9 million fewer acres than in 2025 and Oklahoma 1.35 million fewer, driven by multi-year aquifer depletion under the Southern Plains and two consecutive years of La Nina-driven dry winters. Hard red winter wheat, which anchors US bread wheat exports, recorded the sharpest decline. The piece notes that Chicago Board of Trade soft red winter futures briefly hit US$7.20 per bushel in late April before settling back as the USDA report confirmed hard red winter, not soft, bore the brunt.
  > "Texas planted 3.9 million fewer acres than last year; Oklahoma 1.35 million fewer, as aquifer depletion and La Nina dry winters combined to crater Southern Plains output."
  Source: https://www.farmprogress.com/wheat/usda-cuts-us-2026-winter-wheat-production-forecast-25

### US general-interest magazine; food security and consumer price angle
- **Newsweek** (United States, en) — Newsweek contextualised the harvest in consumer terms: the US is the world's fourth-largest wheat exporter, and a 25% supply drop combined with ongoing Hormuz shipping disruptions pushes global bread-grain prices higher. Noted that Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, had already locked in alternative supply from France and Australia, but Sub-Saharan food-import-dependent nations face spot-market price exposure. The article cited USDA's projection that US wheat ending stocks will fall to a 15-year low.
  > "USDA projects US wheat ending stocks will reach a 15-year low; Egypt has diversified to French and Australian supply but Sub-Saharan importers face spot-market exposure."
  Source: https://www.newsweek.com/us-wheat-harvest-2026-smallest-1965-drought-2028766

## Across the graph
- Entities: United States, Commodity:wheat

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Canonical: https://rbtfl.xyz/en/n/us-wheat-plains-drought-2026