# Uzbekistan raises 2026 GDP growth forecast to 8.1% after economy expands 8.5% in H1; president sets 9-10% as target for living-standard improvements
> Uzbekistan's Ministry of Economy and Finance raised its 2026 full-year growth forecast from 6.6% to 8.1% on July 22, after the presidential press office reported 8.5% year-on-year GDP expansion in the first half of the year; President Shavkat Mirziyoyev told officials that growth must reach 9-10% annually to meaningfully improve living standards for the country's 40 million people

**Meta:** type: event · date: 2026-07-21 · heads: Whose Money, How Life Changes · 4 takes · 3 lenses · 3 regions

## Summary

[Uzbekistan](/en/entity/uzbekistan)'s economy expanded 8.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, according to the presidential press office. The Ministry of Economy and Finance raised its full-year 2026 growth forecast from 6.6% to 8.1%, with GDP projected to reach roughly US$180 billion, inflation at 6.5%, and government revenue and spending budgets increased by 14-12% respectively. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev told ministers and regional governors (hokims) on July 22 that growth must reach 9-10% per year to meaningfully improve living standards for the country's 40 million people, and urged officials to deliver tangible results rather than statistical reports.

## The split

Coverage comes primarily from Uzbek domestic press (Gazeta.uz) and the regional Times of Central Asia; international financial wire (Reuters via TradingView) covered the H1 GDP figure. There is no independent analyst assessment in the feed; the figures are all drawn from official Uzbek government sources. The president's statement that 8.5% growth is insufficient frames the upgrade as a floor, not a ceiling, which is an unusual political signal from a Central Asian government.

## By the numbers

- 8.5%, H1 2026 GDP growth year-on-year
- 8.1%, revised full-year 2026 forecast (up from 6.6%)
- US$180 billion, projected 2026 GDP
- 6.5%, projected 2026 inflation
- 14.3%, increase in consolidated budget revenue forecast
- 12.5%, increase in consolidated budget expenditure forecast
- 40 million, Uzbekistan's population
- 9-10%, the growth rate the president set as the target for "significant" living-standard improvement

## Why it matters

At 8.5%, [Uzbekistan](/en/entity/uzbekistan) is growing at a pace comparable to India and Vietnam, and faster than any other economy in the former Soviet Union. The government's own target of 9-10% signals ambition to sustain high-single-digit growth, unusual for a country of 40 million. Central Asia's growth trajectory matters for Chinese Belt and Road investments transiting the region, Russian economic influence, and the Eurasian Economic Union's internal dynamics.

## What to watch

- Whether the 8.1% full-year forecast is met or exceeded given Q1-H1 momentum
- Inflation trajectory: 6.5% projected against 8%+ growth will test the central bank's tools
- Foreign direct investment inflows, which have driven much of Uzbekistan's construction and services growth
- Whether Mirziyoyev's 9-10% target translates into any policy shift (credit expansion, privatisation, tariff changes)

## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens)

### Central Asia English-language regional press
- **Times of Central Asia** (Central Asia, en) — First verified English-language report on the revised forecast: Uzbekistan raised its 2026 growth projection from 6.6% to 8.1%, attributed to stronger-than-expected performance in 2025 and Q1 2026. Times of Central Asia provides regional context, reflecting the significance of Uzbekistan's growth trajectory for Central Asian economic integration and trade flows.
  > "Uzbekistan has raised its 2026 economic growth forecast from 6.6% to 8.1%, after stronger-than-expected performance last year and in the first quarter of 2026."
  Source: https://timesca.com/uzbekistan-raises-2026-growth-forecast-to-8-1/

### Uzbek English-language national press
- **Gazeta.uz** (Uzbekistan, en) — Gazeta.uz provides the Ministry of Economy and Finance's full figures: GDP forecast upgraded to 8.1%, GDP expected to reach roughly US$180 billion, inflation projected at 6.5%, and consolidated budget revenues and expenditure forecasts raised 14.3% and 12.5% respectively. Coverage from inside Uzbekistan gives the government's own framing of robust economic management.
  > "Uzbekistan's Ministry of Economy and Finance raised its 2026 economic growth forecast to 8.1% from 6.6%. GDP is expected to reach around $180 billion, inflation is projected at 6.5%."
  Source: https://www.gazeta.uz/en/2026/07/22/gdp-uzbekistan-2026/

### unlabelled
- **Gazeta.uz** (Uzbekistan, en) — 
  Source: https://www.gazeta.uz/en/2026/07/22/uzbekistan-gdp/
- **TradingView (Reuters wire)** (Global, en) — 
  Source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2026:newsml_L8N43N0TB:0-uzbekistan-s-gdp-grew-8-5-y-y-in-first-half-of-2026-presidential-press-office-says/

## Across the graph
- Entities: Uzbekistan

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Canonical: https://rbtfl.xyz/en/n/uzbekistan-gdp-growth-0722