# Petro's 'Total Peace' ends as 'Total War', armed groups stronger at his exit
> ELN talks frozen since the Catatumbo massacre; violence less deadly but more pervasive, monitors find, as the transition looms

**Meta:** type: story · date: 2026-06-15 · heads: Cómo terminan de verdad las guerras, Qué se rompió · 8 takes · 3 lenses · 4 regions

## Summary

[Gustavo Petro](/es/entity/gustavo-petro)'s flagship "Paz Total" has effectively collapsed. Talks with the [Eln](/es/entity/eln) froze
after the January 2025 Catatumbo offensive that killed more than 100 people and displaced some
55,000, and ELN commanders now describe the policy as "Total War." Conflict monitors find a
paradox: violence under Petro became less deadly but more pervasive, while armed groups expanded
territory and strength. Crisis Group argues the realistic remaining path runs through local
rather than national accords. The unresolved security crisis hands incoming
[Abelardo de la Espriella](/es/n/colombia-de-la-espriella) a hardened conflict and frames the August
transition.

## By the numbers

- 100+ — killed in the January 2025 Catatumbo offensive.
- ~55,000 — displaced by that offensive.
- 2022 — when Petro launched "Paz Total."

## Why it matters

The defining promise of Colombia's first leftist presidency — a negotiated end to all armed
conflict — closes with insurgents stronger and the ELN track dead. The failure shapes the
security inheritance of a right-wing successor and reopens the question of whether eradication
and military pressure return as the central strategy.

## What to watch

- Whether any ELN or dissident track revives before the handover.
- De la Espriella's stated security posture from 7 August.
- Territorial gains by armed groups and civilian displacement figures.

## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens)

### unlabelled
- **International Crisis Group** (Belgium, en) — Crisis Group assessment that Petro's national 'Paz Total' has fragmented, arguing the realistic path now runs through local rather than comprehensive agreements after the breakdown with the ELN.
  Source: https://www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/latin-america-caribbean/andes/colombia/colombia-total-peace-local-peace
- **Latin America Reports** (Colombia, en) — 
  Source: https://www.latinamericareports.com/colombias-petro-welcomes-peace-talks-with-eln-rebels/12629/
- **ACLED** (United States, en) — 
  Source: https://acleddata.com/report/civilians-colombia-face-less-deadly-more-pervasive-violence-during-petros-presidency
- **Harvard Law / Human Rights Program** (United States, en) — 
  Source: https://hrp.law.harvard.edu/catatumbo-caught-between-violence-and-the-call-for-peace/
- **Rio Times** (Brazil, en) — 
  Source: https://www.riotimesonline.com/colombia-peace-process-2026-guide/
- **Good Authority** (United States, en) — 
  Source: https://goodauthority.org/news/colombia-total-plan-for-peace-petro-eln-farc-violence/

### conflict-data monitor
- **ACLED** (United States, en) — Data-driven finding that violence under Petro became less lethal but more pervasive while armed groups expanded territory and strength — a paradox undercutting the policy's headline success claim.
  > "The Total Peace paradox: Petro's policy reduced violence even as armed groups grew stronger."
  Source: https://acleddata.com/report/total-peace-paradox-colombia-petros-policy-reduced-violence-armed-groups-grew-stronger

### English-language Colombian
- **The City Paper Bogotá** (Colombia, en) — Reports ELN commanders themselves recasting the policy as 'Total War' after the collapse of talks, conveying the insurgent reading that the ceasefire framework has effectively ended.
  > "ELN commanders claim Petro's 'Total Peace' is becoming 'Total War.'"
  Source: https://thecitypaperbogota.com/news/eln-commanders-claim-petros-total-peace-is-becoming-total-war/

## Across the graph
- Related: [[petro-us-decertification-fallout]], [[colombia-de-la-espriella]]
- Entities: Gustavo Petro, Colombia, Eln

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Canonical: https://rbtfl.xyz/es/n/colombia-total-peace-collapse-catatumbo