# AI's $800bn 'circular financing' loop draws bubble and debt warnings
> Nvidia invests in OpenAI; OpenAI commits to Oracle clouds; Oracle buys Nvidia chips, a self-referential money wheel as Oracle/Microsoft CDS spreads roughly double

**Meta:** type: story · date: 2025-11-23 · heads: L'argent de qui, Ce qu'ils ne disent pas · 9 takes · 4 lenses · 4 regions

## Summary

A self-referential financing loop sits under the AI [data-center](/fr/entity/data-centers) boom:
[Nvidia](/fr/entity/nvidia) invests in [Openai](/fr/entity/openai); [Openai](/fr/entity/openai) commits hundreds of billions to clouds like
[Oracle](/fr/entity/oracle); those providers buy [Nvidia](/fr/entity/nvidia) chips to deliver the capacity. 2026 analyses
tally more than $800bn of such arrangements. The strain points are concrete: [Oracle](/fr/entity/oracle)
carries a roughly 6x debt-to-equity ratio against its OpenAI commitments; [Openai](/fr/entity/openai) is
reported on track to lose ~$14bn in 2026; and five-year CDS spreads for [Oracle](/fr/entity/oracle) and
[Microsoft](/fr/entity/microsoft) have nearly doubled since September. Bears call it a leveraged
self-dealing bubble; defenders (e.g. Noah Smith) note circular deals are common in
capital-intensive booms, the question is whether AI demand validates the
[~$725bn capex](/fr/n/hyperscaler-capex-725bn-2026).

## By the numbers

- >$800bn, estimated value of AI circular-financing arrangements (2026 analyses).
- ~6x, Oracle's reported debt-to-equity ratio.
- ~$14bn, OpenAI's projected 2026 loss (near triple 2025).
- ~2x, rise in Oracle and Microsoft 5-year CDS spreads since September.

## Why it matters

If AI revenue lags the build, the same loop that funds it transmits losses across Nvidia,
the labs, the clouds and their lenders at once. Circular financing concentrates and
amplifies the downside, the structural reason a demand wobble could become a systemic one.

## What to watch

- Oracle and Microsoft CDS spreads and debt issuance.
- OpenAI revenue versus its multi-hundred-billion compute commitments.
- Any hyperscaler trimming capex or a vendor pulling an equity/warrant stake.

## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens)

### US markets/data journalism
- **Bloomberg** (United States, en) — Maps the web of AI circular deals, who pays whom among Microsoft, OpenAI, Nvidia and Oracle, and quantifies the interdependencies that magnify losses if AI demand disappoints.
  > "How Microsoft, OpenAI and Nvidia keep paying each other in a circular web of AI deals."
  Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-ai-circular-deals/

### public-interest/economy
- **NPR** (United States, en) — Argues bubble concerns are bigger than ever, centring the gap between OpenAI's revenue and its compute commitments, the demand-side risk under the whole buildout.
  > "Why concerns about an AI bubble are bigger than ever, revenue versus the data-center commitments."
  Source: https://www.npr.org/2025/11/23/nx-s1-5615410/ai-bubble-nvidia-openai-revenue-bust-data-centers

### economics commentary
- **Noahpinion (Noah Smith)** (United States, en) — A measured counter: circular deals are common in capital-intensive booms and not inherently fraudulent, but warns they skew incentives and amplify downside, the case against pure panic.
  > "Should we worry about AI's circular deals? Often normal, but they can skew incentives."
  Source: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/should-we-worry-about-ais-circular

### unlabelled
- **The Register** (United Kingdom, en) — 
  Source: https://www.theregister.com/2025/11/04/the_circular_economy_of_ai/
- **Calcalist (Ctech)** (Israel, en) — 
  Source: https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/z4lxiqbtw
- **Investing.com** (Global, en) — 
  Source: https://www.investing.com/analysis/2026-another-year-of-ai-bubble-not-bursting-200672634
- **Reuters** (Global, en) — 
  Source: https://www.reuters.com/technology/
- **Financial Times** (United Kingdom, en) — 
  Source: https://www.ft.com/artificial-intelligence
- **CNBC** (United States, en) — 
  Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/06/google-microsoft-meta-amazon-ai-cash.html

## Across the graph
- Related: [[hyperscaler-capex-725bn-2026]], [[nvidia-q1-fy27-record-data-center]], [[stargate-abilene-financing-2026]], [[nvidia-amd-openai-6gw-mi450]]
- Entities: Hyperscaler Capex, Nvidia, Openai, Oracle, Microsoft, Data Centers

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Canonical: https://rbtfl.xyz/fr/n/ai-circular-financing-debt-2026