# The largest oil supply disruption on record
> Brent peaked near $118 before a US-Iran framework began unwinding the premium

**Meta:** type: story · date: 2026-06-22 · heads: Ce qui a cassé, Comment les guerres finissent vraiment · 4 takes · 4 lenses · 4 regions

## Summary

After US-Israeli strikes on Iran beginning 28 February, Iran restricted nearly all
traffic through the [Strait of Hormuz](/fr/entity/strait-of-hormuz), stranding Gulf crude and LNG. Brent rose from
~$72 to above $118 by early March; producers shut in roughly 11 mb/d by May as storage
filled — the IEA's largest-ever recorded supply disruption. The [US and Iran sign 14-point memorandum to end the war](/fr/n/iran-us-ceasefire-mou)
of 18 June sent Brent back below $80, but Iran briefly re-closed the strait on 22 June
citing strikes in Lebanon. Full normalisation is months away, with 500-plus vessels
queued to exit the Gulf. Asia — China, India, Japan, South Korea — absorbed most
pre-conflict volumes and carries the sharpest exposure.

## Why it matters

Roughly 20% of seaborne oil and LNG transit Hormuz. The closure removed ~10 mb/d at
peak and reset global fuel and fertilizer prices, transmitting into freight
([Dual chokepoint closure drives container freight sharply higher](/fr/n/hormuz-cape-diversion-freight)) and central-bank policy ([ECB raises rates on the Iran-driven energy shock, first hike since 2023](/fr/n/ecb-rate-hike-energy-shock)).

## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens)

### institutional analysis
- **IEA** (France/OECD, en) — Characterises the episode as the largest supply disruption in the history of the oil market; tracks shut-ins rising as Gulf storage saturates.
  > "Production shut-ins averaged 11.3 million barrels per day in May."
  Source: https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-may-2026

### regional
- **Al Jazeera** (Qatar, en) — Reports Brent falling sharply in Asian trade after the framework, with prices only ~7% above pre-conflict levels.
  > "Oil prices dropped after the US and Iran signed an interim agreement."
  Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/6/18/oil-prices-fall-stocks-rally-as-us-iran-sign-framework-to-end-war

### development economics
- **World Bank Blogs** (US/global, en) — Frames the disruption around input-cost spillovers, warning nitrogen-fertilizer prices could roughly double and threaten staple-crop yields during spring planting.
  > "The restriction raised energy and agricultural input costs worldwide."
  Source: https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/strait-of-hormuz-disruption-sends-oil-prices-surging

### skeptical counterpoint
- **Brookings** (US, en) — Argues spare capacity, strategic reserves and demand destruction blunt the shock, and that worst-case price scenarios assume a prolonged closure that has not held.
  > "The worst, as far as supply disruptions go, may be behind us."
  Source: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-timing-of-the-impending-crude-crisis/

## Across the graph
- Related: [[iran-us-ceasefire-mou]], [[hormuz-cape-diversion-freight]], [[iran-oil-sanctions-relief]]
- Entities: Strait of Hormuz, Iran, Oil, OPEC

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Canonical: https://rbtfl.xyz/fr/n/hormuz-oil-supply-shock