# Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro by double digits as the fourth-term campaign hardens
> At 80, Lula runs for an unprecedented fourth term with the right's standard-bearer dogged by scandal and his father jailed

**Meta:** type: story · date: 2026-06-10 · heads: Qui décide, L'argent de qui · 8 takes · 3 lenses · 3 regions

## Summary

[Lula](/fr/entity/lula), 80, is running for an unprecedented fourth term, with the general election on 4 October
2026 and a runoff on 25 October. June polls from Quaest, MDA and Atlas put Lula at roughly 41–47%
in the first round against [Flavio Bolsonaro](/fr/entity/flavio-bolsonaro) at 28–34%, the gap widening on the
[Banco Master audio scandal](/fr/n/flavio-bolsonaro-vorcaro-audio-scandal) and the Bolsonaro family's
mounting legal exposure, including [Eduardo's
conviction](/fr/n/eduardo-bolsonaro-stf-coercion-conviction) and [Jair Bolsonaro](/fr/entity/jair-bolsonaro)'s imprisonment. Other candidates include Romeu Zema (NOVO) and
Ronaldo Caiado (PSD). Prediction markets implied a Lula edge. The campaign is hardening around
Bolsonaro-family scandal and Lula's incumbency record.

## By the numbers

- 80 — Lula's age, seeking a fourth term.
- 41–47% — Lula's first-round polling range (June).
- 28–34% — Flávio Bolsonaro's range.
- 4 Oct / 25 Oct 2026 — first round / runoff.

## Why it matters

Brazil is Latin America's largest economy and democracy; a Lula fourth term versus a Bolsonaro
restoration carries sharply different paths on trade, climate and the US relationship. With the
right's candidate dogged by scandal and his father jailed, the race tests whether the
Bolsonaro movement can field a viable standard-bearer.

## What to watch

- Whether the scandals keep widening Lula's lead or the right consolidates.
- Eligibility and legal developments around the Bolsonaro family.
- Economic indicators — inflation, the Selic path, jobs — into the vote.

## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens)

### unlabelled
- **AS/COA Poll Tracker** (United States, en) — Aggregated poll tracker for Brazil's 2026 race — the running record of first-round and runoff numbers showing Lula's lead over Flávio Bolsonaro and the minor candidates.
  Source: https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-brazils-2026-presidential-election
- **Bloomberg** (United States, en) — 
  Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-14/bolsonaro-ties-to-banco-master-ceo-rock-brazil-presidential-race
- **Opinion polling (Wikipedia)** (Global, en) — 
  Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Brazilian_presidential_election
- **2026 Brazilian general election (Wikipedia)** (Global, en) — 
  Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Brazilian_general_election
- **Polymarket** (Global, en) — 
  Source: https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election
- **Rio Times** (Brazil, en) — 
  Source: https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-election-poll-tracker-2026/

### left
- **Brasil de Fato** (Brazil, pt) — Foregrounds that Lula leads in every simulated matchup, framing the race as his to lose and emphasising the breadth of his advantage across opponents.
  > "Lula maintains a lead across all simulated scenarios for the 2026 presidential race, according to the poll."
  Source: https://www.brasildefato.com.br/2025/10/09/lula-maintains-lead-in-all-scenarios-for-brazils-2026-presidential-race-says-poll/

### English-language analysis
- **The Brazilian Report** (Brazil, en) — Provides an analytical breakdown of the polling, weighing the scandals dragging the right's candidate and the structural advantages and risks for an 80-year-old incumbent seeking a fourth term.
  > "What the polls say a year out from Brazil's 2026 election."
  Source: https://newsletters.brazilian.report/p/podcast-2026-election-year-away-polls-say

## Across the graph
- Related: [[flavio-bolsonaro-vorcaro-audio-scandal]], [[eduardo-bolsonaro-stf-coercion-conviction]]
- Entities: Lula, Brazil, Flavio Bolsonaro, Jair Bolsonaro

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Canonical: https://rbtfl.xyz/fr/n/lula-2026-reelection-poll-lead