# A Gen Z uprising and a mutinous army unit topple Rajoelina in Madagascar
> CAPSAT — the unit that made Rajoelina in 2009 — switches sides; Col. Randrianirina takes power, AU suspends the island, elections promised for 2027

**Meta:** type: event · date: 2025-10-12 · heads: Ce qui a cassé, Comment les guerres finissent vraiment · 9 takes · 3 lenses · 7 regions

## Summary

On 12 October 2025 the CAPSAT military unit deposed President [Andry Rajoelina](/fr/entity/andry-rajoelina) in [Madagascar](/fr/entity/madagascar) after weeks of Gen Z protests over water and power cuts. CAPSAT — the same unit that brought Rajoelina to power in 2009 — switched sides; Rajoelina fled and the High Constitutional Court declared the office vacant, transferring power to Col. Michael Randrianirina. The [African Union](/fr/entity/african-union) ruled it an unconstitutional change of government and suspended the island. A 24-month transition promises presidential elections in September 2027, but Randrianirina's early moves — an unpopular PM and the abrupt firing of his own cabinet — have raised doubts about his commitment to hand back power. The episode adds Madagascar to a belt of African military takeovers.

## By the numbers

- 12 Oct 2025 — CAPSAT mutiny that ousted Rajoelina.
- 2009 — when the same unit first installed Rajoelina, then 34.
- 24 — months in the planned transition timetable.
- Sept 2027 — scheduled presidential election.

## Why it matters

A youth uprising fused with an army mutiny to break Madagascar's political cycle — but handed power to an officer already showing autocratic reflexes. The transition's credibility tests whether a Gen Z revolt yields civilian rule or another entrenched junta in the Indian Ocean.

## What to watch

- Whether the 2027 election timetable holds or slips.
- Randrianirina's treatment of the protest movement that enabled him.
- AU/regional pressure and any path back from suspension.

## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens)

### unlabelled
- **UN News** (Global, en) — The UN's condemnation of the Madagascar military takeover and call for a return to constitutional order — the authoritative international record of how the change of government was characterised.
  Source: https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/10/1166123
- **Wikipedia (2025 Malagasy coup d'état)** (Global, en) — 
  Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Malagasy_coup_d'%C3%A9tat
- **ConstitutionNet** (Sweden, en) — 
  Source: https://constitutionnet.org/news/voices/rebuilding-and-constitutional-transition-madagascar
- **Critical Threats** (United States, en) — 
  Source: https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/what-the-madagascar-coup-means-for-africa-mining-and-competition-in-the-indian-ocean
- **BTI Blog** (Germany, en) — 
  Source: https://blog.bti-project.org/2025/12/19/madagascars-unfinished-revolution-can-a-youth-uprising-break-the-countrys-political-curse/
- **Jubilee for Justice** (Africa, en) — 
  Source: https://jfjustice.net/madagascar-coup-as-peril-providence-or-promise-to-new-transition/
- **Freedom House** (United States, en) — 
  Source: https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2026/growing-shadow-autocracy

### African security institute
- **ISS Africa** (South Africa, en) — Analyses whether the events were a coup, a revolution or a hybrid 'coupvolution,' stressing that a Gen Z protest wave over basic services preceded and enabled the CAPSAT mutiny that removed Rajoelina.
  > "Coup, revolution or 'coupvolution'? CAPSAT switched sides after weeks of Gen Z service-delivery protests."
  Source: https://issafrica.org/iss-today/the-madagascar-upheaval-coup-revolution-or-coupvolution

### geopolitical analysis
- **GIS Reports** (Liechtenstein, en) — Assesses the post-coup landscape, the 24-month transition to 2027 elections, and early warning signs — Randrianirina's unpopular PM pick and abrupt cabinet firings — that the new leader may not cede power on schedule.
  > "Unilateral actions question Randrianirina's commitment to the transition, including his abrupt firing of the new prime minister and entire cabinet."
  Source: https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/madagascar-coup/

## Across the graph
- Entities: Madagascar, Andry Rajoelina, Capsat, African Union

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Canonical: https://rbtfl.xyz/fr/n/madagascar-randrianirina-coup