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Three years on, Tinubu says reforms saved Nigeria; fuel is up 463%

Three years on, Tinubu says reforms saved Nigeria; fuel is up 463%

Markets and FAAC allocations have surged since the subsidy was cut and the naira floated, but petrol has risen more than fourfold and households are still squeezed

Leaders·Debt· active L'argent de qui·Comment la vie change ·6 takes ·mis à jour 24 juin 2026

Summary

Marking three years in office on 29 May 2026, President Bola Tinubu said removing the Fuel Subsidy and floating the Naira had saved Nigeria from "imminent bankruptcy". The reform dividend is real on paper: equity market capitalisation rose from ~N30tn in 2023 to ~N160tn, the All-Share Index from 53,000 to ~250,000, and monthly Faac allocations to states jumped to N2.036tn in March 2026 from N629bn in March 2023. But petrol has risen about 463% — to roughly N1,340/litre from N238 — driving transport and food inflation. Tinubu called the decision "difficult and painful" but necessary. Critics say improving macro numbers have not reached households, which remain squeezed.

The split

Government and broadcast outlets (Channels, State House) relay the bankruptcy-averted framing; Nairametrics quantifies the market and FAAC surge; Punch foregrounds the 463% fuel rise and cost-of-living pain; Premium Times probes whether macro gains reach ordinary Nigerians. The fault line: a fiscal-stabilisation success story versus a household-affordability crisis that the same reforms produced.

By the numbers

  • ~463% — rise in petrol price, to ~N1,340/litre from N238 over three years.
  • N30tn → ~N160tn — equity market capitalisation, 2023 to 2026.
  • 53,000 → ~250,000 — NGX All-Share Index over the period.
  • N629bn → N2.036tn — monthly FAAC allocation, March 2023 vs March 2026.
  • N250bn+ — interventions rolled out to cushion the subsidy removal.

Why it matters

Nigeria is the largest test case for orthodox subsidy-and-FX reform in Africa. Whether Bola Tinubu's macro stabilisation translates into lower household costs before the 2027 election cycle determines if painful reform is politically survivable — and shapes how peers across the continent weigh similar cuts.

What to watch

  • Whether food and transport inflation eases as the naira and fiscal position stabilise.
  • Local refining (Dangote) capacity and its effect on the pump price.
  • 2027 election positioning and any reversal pressure on subsidy or FX policy.