# Al-Shabaab claws back the Shabelle gains as AUSSOM hemorrhages support
> The group has reversed the 2022-23 government offensive across Middle and Lower Shabelle and Hiiraan, its reach extending toward Mogadishu; June airstrikes killed 28 militants but the strategic tide favours the insurgents

**Meta:** type: story · date: 2026-06-19 · heads: खामोश बदलाव, क्या टूटा · 9 takes · 3 lenses · 4 regions

## Summary

[Al Shabaab](/hi/entity/al-shabaab) has reversed the gains [Somalia](/hi/entity/somalia)'s government made in its 2022-23 offensive, retaking towns across Middle and Lower Shabelle and parts of Hiiraan, with its reach now extending toward [Mogadishu](/hi/entity/somalia). The al-Qaeda affiliate captured Moqokori (Hiraan) and contested Wargaadhi (Middle Shabelle) earlier in 2026. Mogadishu leans heavily on the [African Union mission](/hi/entity/aussom), which the CTC and Crisis Group say is under strength and losing donor support amid Somali political interference. US Africa Command continued strikes — one near Welmaro on 19 June — and Somali operations killed 28 militants in Hiran and Middle Shabelle in June, including commander Abdirahman Abdi Mudallib. But analysts warn the strategic calculus is shifting toward al-Shabaab seizing the capital.

## By the numbers

- 28 — al-Shabaab fighters killed in June 2026 Hiran/Middle Shabelle operations.
- 19 June 2026 — AFRICOM strike near Welmaro, ~103km north of Kismayo.
- 2022-23 — the government offensive al-Shabaab has now largely reversed.
- July 2025 — al-Shabaab takes Moqokori after a two-month campaign.
- AUSSOM — under-strength and hemorrhaging donor funding.

## Why it matters

A movement retaking territory it lost three years ago, with its reach lapping at the capital, signals the federal project's reliance on foreign troops and US airpower is failing to hold ground. An AUSSOM losing funding while Mogadishu feuds internally raises the prospect — flagged by the Africa Center — of Somalia drifting toward a jihadist state.

## What to watch

- AUSSOM's funding and troop strength as donors waver.
- Whether al-Shabaab can threaten Mogadishu's outskirts directly.
- US strike tempo under AFRICOM and any federal ground counteroffensive.
- Federal-state political fragmentation that the group exploits.

## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens)

### unlabelled
- **AFRICOM — strike press release** (United States, en) — US Africa Command's own statement on its strikes targeting al-Shabaab in coordination with the Somali federal government — the primary record of the US air campaign supporting Mogadishu.
  Source: https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36607/us-forces-conducts-strike-targeting-al-shabaab
- **Hiiraan Online** (Somalia, en) — 
  Source: https://www.hiiraan.com/security4/2026/Jun/205302/somalia_security_operations_kill_at_least_28_alshabaab_terrorists.aspx
- **Shabelle Media Network** (Somalia, en) — 
  Source: https://shabellemedia.com/al-shabaab-attack-on-somali-army-base-repelled-in-central-region/
- **Radio Dalsan** (Somalia, en) — 
  Source: https://radiodalsan.com/News/299236/somali-army-repels-al-shabaab-attack-in-wargaadhi-what-you-need-to-know
- **Africa Center for Strategic Studies** (United States, en) — 
  Source: https://africacenter.org/publication/asb45en-somalia-risk-jihadist-state/
- **CFR Global Conflict Tracker** (United States, en) — 
  Source: https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/al-shabab-somalia
- **EUAA — Somalia security situation** (European Union, en) — 
  Source: https://www.euaa.europa.eu/coi/somalia/2025/security-situation/12-armed-actors-and-relevant-developments/122-al-shabaab-control-areas-presence-and-influence

### Mogadishu losing the upper hand
- **International Crisis Group** (Belgium, en) — Documents al-Shabaab recapturing key towns while the federal government struggles to hold ground, tying the reversal to fragmented federal politics and an under-strength AUSSOM that Mogadishu's own interference has weakened.
  > "Al-Shabaab recaptures a key town while Mogadishu struggles to regain the upper hand."
  Source: https://www.crisisgroup.org/alr/africa/somalia/al-shabaab-recaptures-key-town-while-mogadishu-struggles-regain-upper-hand

### counterterrorism / AUSSOM future
- **CTC West Point** (United States, en) — Frames Somalia at a crossroads: resurgent insurgents, fragmented federal politics, and an AUSSOM mission hemorrhaging donor support while Mogadishu's political interference leaves it under strength — the structural case for why the offensive is succeeding.
  > "Resurgent insurgents, fragmented politics, and the uncertain future of AUSSOM leave Somalia at a crossroads."
  Source: https://ctc.westpoint.edu/somalia-at-a-crossroads-resurgent-insurgents-fragmented-politics-and-the-uncertain-future-of-aussom/

## Across the graph
- Entities: Somalia Al Shabaab, Somalia, Al Shabaab, Aussom, US Africa Command

---
Canonical: https://rbtfl.xyz/hi/n/somalia-al-shabaab-shabelle-offensive-2026