# IOM survey finds Western Balkans migration route remains active with 763 migrants interviewed across six countries in early 2026, with Afghanistan and Syria as the leading origin countries > IOM's March 2026 displacement tracking survey of 763 migrants at reception and transit points across Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro, and Bulgaria found that 68% aimed for Germany or other EU destinations, 42% cited protection needs rather than economic migration as the primary reason for departure, and average journey time from origin country to the Balkans exceeded 18 months; route activity persisted despite a 40%+ decline in Western Balkans irregular arrivals to the EU since the peak years of 2021-2022 **Meta:** type: story · date: 2026-03-15 · heads: 暮らしはどう変わるか, 長期戦 · 7 takes · 5 lenses · 3 regions ## Summary IOM's Displacement Tracking Matrix published a March 2026 survey of 763 migrants interviewed at reception and transit points across six Western Balkans countries: Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro, and Bulgaria. Afghans (34%) and Syrians (22%) were the leading origin nationalities, with smaller shares from Somalia, Pakistan, and Morocco. 68% named Germany, France, or another Northern European EU member state as their intended destination. 42% described protection-related drivers, including conflict, persecution, or targeted violence, as the primary reason for departure, compared to 58% citing primarily economic motives. The average journey time from origin country to the Balkans was 18.3 months, indicating extended periods of transit or stuck migration rather than rapid passage through the region. The survey was conducted against a backdrop of overall Western Balkans route arrivals to the EU that were more than 40% below peak 2021-2022 levels. ## The split EU institutions and Western Balkan governments argued that the combination of EU-funded border management improvements, bilateral readmission agreements, and stricter visa policies for origin transit countries had succeeded in reducing irregular arrivals on the route. Human rights organisations including UNHCR, ECRE, and the Border Violence Monitoring Network documented an alternative explanation: that much of the recorded decline in formal arrivals reflected an increase in informal pushbacks to Serbia, Bosnia, or North Macedonia from Croatia and Bulgaria, which are EU member states, rather than a genuine reduction in crossing attempts. The IOM survey's finding that 42% of those in the Balkans had protection-related rather than purely economic motivations complicated the political framing of the route as primarily economic migration amenable to deterrence. ## By the numbers - 763: migrants surveyed by IOM across 6 Western Balkans countries, March 2026 - 34%: Afghan nationals (leading origin nationality) - 22%: Syrian nationals (second origin nationality) - 68%: aiming for Germany, France, or other Northern European EU members - 42%: citing protection needs (conflict, persecution, targeted violence) as primary driver - 18.3 months: average journey time from origin country to the Balkans - 40%+: decline in Western Balkans route EU irregular arrivals vs 2021-2022 peak ## Why it matters The Western [Balkan Route](/ja/entity/place/balkan-route) connects the Middle East, Central Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa to the European Union's external border, and its persistence despite years of EU investment in deterrence reflects the absence of legal pathways for the predominant nationalities on the route: Afghans since the 2021 Taliban takeover and Syrians have minimal access to safe and legal migration channels to EU countries. The route's continued activity at reduced but non-zero levels also illustrates the limits of border management as a migration governance tool when the push factors at origin remain active. ## What to watch - Whether the EU's new Asylum and Migration Pact, implemented from June 2024, materially changes processing times or conditions at EU border crossing points from the Balkans - Whether Afghanistan's continued humanitarian crisis sustains Afghan migration flow at current levels through 2026 - Whether Serbia or Bosnia and Herzegovina receive EU accession-track commitments that alter the political calculus around hosting transit populations - Frontex Q2-Q3 2026 data on Western Balkans route detection numbers ## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens) ### UN migration agency's primary field survey for the Western Balkans route; based on structured interviews at reception and transit points in six countries - **IOM (International Organization for Migration) Displacement Tracking Matrix** (International, en) — IOM's Displacement Tracking Matrix survey of 763 migrants at reception and transit points across Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro, and Bulgaria found Afghanistan (34%) and Syria (22%) as the leading origin countries, with Somalia, Pakistan, and Morocco representing smaller shares. 68% of respondents cited Germany, France, or another Northern European EU member state as their intended destination. 42% described protection-related reasons (conflict, persecution, or targeted violence) rather than economic factors as the primary driver. Average journey time from origin country to the Balkans was 18.3 months, indicating that many were caught in extended transit rather than moving through quickly. > "IOM DTM survey, 763 migrants across 6 Balkan countries: Afghanistan 34%, Syria 22%; 42% protection-driven; average 18 months in transit." Source: https://dtm.iom.int/reports/western-balkans-flow-monitoring-survey-round-2026 ### UN Refugee Agency; country-level data on asylum applications, reception conditions, and protection gaps across the Balkans route - **UNHCR Western Balkans** (International, en) — UNHCR's Western Balkans monitoring documented the persistence of the route in 2025-2026 despite EU pressure on Western Balkan governments to tighten border management. The agency noted that pushbacks from Croatia, Bulgaria, and Serbia continued to be reported by migrants and NGOs, and that legal aid access for asylum seekers remained severely limited outside the main reception centres, particularly in Bosnia and Herzegovina's Una-Sana canton and in North Macedonia. > "UNHCR: pushbacks from Croatia, Bulgaria, and Serbia continue to be reported; legal aid for asylum seekers limited outside main reception centres." Source: https://www.unhcr.org/western-balkans ### Southeast Europe investigative journalism network; independent reporting on migration patterns, pushbacks, and the politics of the EU-Western Balkans migration relationship - **Balkan Insight** (Balkans, en) — Balkan Insight reported that the IOM survey confirmed the Western Balkans route's continued activity despite a significant reduction in arrivals recorded at EU external borders from this route. The article noted that the apparent decline in EU arrivals partly reflected increased pushbacks and informal returns rather than fewer people attempting to cross. Local NGOs in Bosnia documented ongoing overcrowding at informal migrant settlements near the Bosnian-Croatian border. > "Balkan Insight: Balkans route arrival decline at EU borders partly reflects increased pushbacks, not fewer crossings, NGOs document." Source: https://balkaninsight.com/2026/03/15/western-balkans-migration-route-still-active-iom-survey ### European refugee rights advocacy network; policy analysis of the legal and humanitarian situation for migrants on the Western Balkans route - **European Council on Refugees and Exiles (ECRE)** (Europe, en) — ECRE's policy brief on the 2026 IOM survey data argued that the persistence of the Balkans route reflected the continued absence of legal pathways for Afghans and Syrians to access EU protection, and that EU funding for border management in the Western Balkans without proportional funding for asylum processing capacity was creating a 'managed limbo' rather than durable solutions. > "ECRE: Balkans route persists because legal pathways for Afghans and Syrians to EU protection are absent; EU border funding without asylum capacity creates managed limbo." Source: https://ecre.org/western-balkans-route-2026-survey-conditions-and-pushbacks/ ### unlabelled - **Mixed Migration Centre (Balkans route profiling)** (International, en) — Source: https://mixedmigration.org/regions/europe/ - **Frontex (Western Balkans border data)** (Europe, en) — Source: https://www.frontex.europa.eu/what-we-do/monitoring-and-risk-analysis/migratory-map/ - **BVMN (Border Violence Monitoring Network)** (Europe, en) — Source: https://www.borderviolence.eu/ ## Across the graph - Entities: Place:balkan Route --- Canonical: https://rbtfl.xyz/ja/n/balkan-route-iom-2025