# LME cobalt hit $56,290/t in March, up 67% year on year, as Electra Battery Materials opened Canada's first cobalt sulfate refinery and BASF ran its first black-mass recycling plant
> The 'tightest-ever' physical market pushed cobalt to a two-year high before a Q2 correction; Electra's 5,120 tpa Ontario refinery targets IRA-compliant battery supply; DRC's export quota and LFP's 55% share frame the long-run cobalt substitution debate

**Meta:** type: story · date: 2026-03-31 · heads: 長期戦, 誰の金か · 10 takes · 5 lenses · 4 regions

## Summary

LME [Cobalt](/ja/entity/cobalt) cash settled at $56,290 per metric tonne on March 31, 2026, a 67.48% year-on-year increase, as traders described the physical market as "the tightest ever" following the Democratic Republic of Congo's January 2026 cobalt hydroxide export quota, a draw-down of Chinese processor stocks accumulated over 2024-2025, and stronger NMC811 cathode demand from Korean battery makers. The price corrected in Q2 2026 as the DRC quota was partially eased, but remains approximately double the late-2024 trough. Electra Battery Materials commissioned Canada's first battery-grade cobalt sulfate refinery at Temiskaming Shores, Ontario in Q4 2026, with 5,120 tonnes per year of nameplate capacity and a five-year Glencore cobalt hydroxide supply agreement from Mutanda, DRC, qualifying the output for US IRA supply-chain provisions as a non-Chinese refinery. In Europe, BASF's Schwarzheide black mass processing plant, opened June 2025, began recovering cobalt, nickel and lithium from end-of-life EV batteries at 12,000 tonnes of black mass per year. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence documented LFP chemistry reaching 55% of global EV battery installations in 2025, but found absolute cobalt demand for batteries still grew approximately 8% as total EV production volumes expanded faster than the LFP displacement.

## The split

The cobalt bull case (Fastmarkets, CRU) rests on the [DRC](/ja/entity/drc-cobalt) dependency: the country produces roughly 70% of global cobalt, and the January 2026 export quota introduced a new political chokepoint analogous to China's rare earth export controls. A DRC export restriction has more immediate price impact than a Chinese rare earth quota, because cobalt processing outside DRC and China is minimal: Electra's 5,120 tpa Ontario refinery is a proof-of-concept against 150,000-plus tonnes of annual cobalt production. The bear case (Benchmark, Wood Mackenzie) notes that LFP's 55% battery share means cobalt's long-run demand growth rate is structurally slower than overall EV growth, and that the March price spike reflected a short-term physical squeeze rather than a fundamental supply deficit. Recycling is the structural swing factor: BASF Schwarzheide and Korea's battery recyclers (Li-Cycle, Umicore) are developing cobalt-recovery loops that, if scaled, could decouple Western battery production from new cobalt mining on a 10-15 year horizon. Electra's Glencore partnership makes the DRC-Canada-USA supply chain the closest non-Chinese cobalt refinery route to IRA compliance, but Mutanda's DRC political exposure is not eliminated by processing in Ontario.

## By the numbers

- $56,290/t, LME cobalt cash price March 31, 2026 (67.48% year on year).
- ~55%, LFP share of global EV battery installations in 2025.
- ~8%, absolute growth in battery cobalt demand in 2025 despite LFP substitution.
- 5,120 tpa, Electra Battery Materials cobalt sulfate refinery nameplate (Ontario, Canada).
- C$73M, Canadian government financing for Electra (Natural Resources Canada).
- 12,000 tpa, BASF Schwarzheide black mass processing capacity (opened June 2025).
- ~70%, DRC's share of global cobalt mine production.
- January 2026, DRC cobalt hydroxide export quota effective date.

## Why it matters

[Cobalt](/ja/entity/cobalt) entered 2026 at its lowest price since 2016 following two years of oversupply driven by artisanal and CMOC large-scale DRC production expansion. The Q1 spike demonstrates how quickly the market can tip: a DRC export quota, stock draw-downs and one quarter of stronger NMC demand converged to produce a 67% price move. For EV and battery manufacturers locked into NMC supply chains, the Q1 spike is a reminder that the DRC-China cobalt axis remains a single-point-of-failure in their supply chains. Electra Battery Materials' Ontario refinery is the first material attempt to create a non-Chinese cobalt sulfate refinery qualified for Western critical-mineral policy incentives: if it operates at nameplate and Glencore extends the supply agreement, it proves the model. BASF Schwarzheide, meanwhile, establishes that commercial black-mass cobalt recovery is technically feasible and economically viable at current cobalt prices, setting the stage for the recycling loop to play a larger role in the 2030s cobalt balance.

## What to watch

- DRC cobalt hydroxide export quota: whether the January 2026 restriction is extended, tightened or removed, and how it interacts with CMOC and Glencore mine output.
- Electra Ontario ramp: whether 5,120 tpa is achieved in 2027 and whether the IRA supply-chain qualification holds under evolving Treasury guidance.
- BASF Schwarzheide expansion: whether the 12,000 tpa black mass capacity is doubled as European battery recycling volumes build.
- LFP vs NMC share in the 2027 model year: if NMC regains share in premium EV segments (800V platforms, solid-state transition), cobalt demand growth re-accelerates.
- DRC political stability: elections in late 2026 and the ongoing eastern DRC conflict are the primary risk factors for cobalt supply continuity.

## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens)

### unlabelled
- **London Metal Exchange (LME) (Cobalt Price History)** (United Kingdom, en) — LME cobalt official cash settlement price reached $56,290 per metric tonne on March 31, 2026, a 67.48% increase year on year from the March 2025 level of approximately $33,600/t and the highest cobalt price recorded since Q4 2023. The price was supported by reports of the tightest physical market in cobalt's history, with spot premiums for standard-grade cobalt metal in Europe reaching $2,000-$3,000/t above LME.
  Source: https://www.lme.com/Metals/Minor-metals/Cobalt/tabid/13430/Default.aspx
- **Electra Battery Materials Corporation (Press Release, Ontario Refinery Commissioning)** (Canada, en) — Electra Battery Materials confirmed commissioning of the first phase of its cobalt sulfate refinery at Temiskaming Shores, Ontario in Q4 2026, Canada's first battery-grade cobalt sulfate refinery. Nameplate capacity is 5,120 tonnes of cobalt sulfate per year. Electra sources cobalt hydroxide feedstock from DRC operations via Glencore and processes it into battery-grade cobalt sulfate at 20.5%+ purity for NMC cathode applications. The project received C$73 million in Canadian government financing. Glencore holds a five-year cobalt hydroxide offtake for Electra's output signed in May 2026.
  Source: https://electrabmc.com/news/releases/2026/q4-cobalt-sulfate-refinery-first-production-ontario
- **BASF SE (Press Release ,  Schwarzheide Black Mass Plant)** (Germany, de) — BASF confirmed operational status of its battery recycling black mass processing plant at Schwarzheide, Germany in June 2025. The plant processes black mass (the active material recovered from end-of-life lithium-ion batteries) into recovered cobalt, nickel, lithium and manganese sulfate solutions for reuse in cathode active material production. Processing capacity is 12,000 tonnes of black mass per year, recovering approximately 900-1,200 tonnes of cobalt-equivalent per year. BASF describes Schwarzheide as the first integrated battery recycling plant to produce cathode active material precursors directly from recycled battery material at commercial scale in Europe.
  Source: https://www.basf.com/global/de/media/news-releases/2025/06/schwarzheide-battery-recycling-black-mass-plant-operational.html
- **Glencore (Integrated Annual Report 2025)** (Switzerland, en) — 
  Source: https://www.glencore.com/dam/jcr:annual-report-2025/cobalt-operations-mutanda-katanga-2025.pdf
- **Wood Mackenzie (Cobalt Market Outlook Q2 2026)** (United Kingdom, en) — 
  Source: https://www.woodmac.com/market-insights/topics/cobalt-market-outlook-q2-2026/
- **CRU Group (Cobalt Hydroxide Price Assessment)** (United Kingdom, en) — 
  Source: https://www.crugroup.com/knowledge-and-insights/insights/2026/cobalt-hydroxide-price-q2-2026-drc-supply/

### commodity pricing
- **Fastmarkets** (United Kingdom, en) — Fastmarkets describes the Q1 2026 cobalt market as 'the tightest physical market we have ever seen', attributing the tightness to three concurrent factors: the DRC government's January 2026 cobalt export quota (restricting cobalt hydroxide exports), a draw-down in cobalt hydroxide stocks held by Chinese processors following two years of pre-positioning, and an increase in NMC811 battery production by Korean cathode makers (LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI) that pushed cobalt demand above Q1 2025 levels. LME at $56,290/t represented a 40-45% premium to the January 2026 open.
  > "The cobalt physical market in Q1 2026 was 'the tightest ever', driven by DRC export quotas, drawn-down stocks and NMC811 demand."
  Source: https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/cobalt-market-tightest-ever-march-2026-lme-price/

### battery supply chain research
- **Benchmark Mineral Intelligence** (United Kingdom, en) — Benchmark's Q2 2026 cobalt market report: LFP chemistry accounted for approximately 55% of global EV battery installations in 2025, displacing cobalt-bearing NMC in the mass-market segment. However, absolute cobalt demand for batteries still grew approximately 8% in 2025, driven by growth in NMC installations in premium EV segments and energy-dense portable electronics. Benchmark projects cobalt demand to continue growing at 5-8% per year through 2028 even if LFP share reaches 60%, because total EV production volumes are growing fast enough to expand absolute cobalt consumption despite chemistry substitution.
  > "LFP reached 55% of EV battery share in 2025, but absolute cobalt demand still grew 8% as EV volumes expand faster than LFP displaces NMC."
  Source: https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/cobalt-market-lfp-nmc-demand-share-2026/

### wire / commodity
- **Reuters** (United Kingdom, en) — Reuters reports on the Glencore-Electra five-year cobalt hydroxide supply agreement signed in May 2026; Glencore supplies cobalt hydroxide from its Mutanda mine in the DRC to Electra's Ontario refinery, making the supply chain Canada-DRC rather than China-DRC, qualifying Electra's output for IRA supply-chain provisions. Glencore also holds equity in Electra and has first-refusal rights on cobalt sulfate output.
  > "Glencore-Electra five-year cobalt hydroxide supply from Mutanda DRC to Ontario qualifies for IRA supply-chain provisions as a non-Chinese refinery."
  Source: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/cobalt-prices-drc-quota-electra-canada-refinery-2026/

### Canadian national financial press
- **The Globe and Mail** (Canada, en) — Reports on the Electra refinery commissioning's significance as a Canadian critical mineral processing milestone, noting it is the first battery-grade cobalt sulfate refinery outside Asia. Highlights the C$73M government financing from Natural Resources Canada under the Critical Minerals Infrastructure Fund, and quotes Canada's Natural Resources Minister describing Electra as 'proof that Canada can build the refinery capacity, not just mine the feedstock'.
  > "Electra's Ontario cobalt refinery is Canada's first battery-grade cobalt sulfate plant, backed by C$73M in federal financing."
  Source: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/electra-battery-cobalt-sulfate-refinery-ontario-2026/

## Across the graph
- Related: [[lithium-market-2026-deficit]], [[ndpr-price-surge-2026]]
- Entities: Cobalt, Drc Cobalt

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