# Guinea capped bauxite exports at 150 million tonnes per year, cutting ~25% from 2025 run-rate, as Chalco opened a $1B alumina refinery at Boffa
> The June 2026 export cap arrives as bauxite prices sit 50% below early-2025 peaks; Axis International filed a $28.9B World Bank arbitration after permit revocation; 75% of China's bauxite imports originate in Guinea

**Meta:** type: story · date: 2026-06-01 · heads: 誰が決めるのか, 長期戦 · 9 takes · 4 lenses · 7 regions

## Summary

The Republic of Guinea issued Ministerial Order 2026/MMG/CAB/0447 on June 1, 2026, capping annual bauxite exports at 150 million dry metric tonnes, approximately 25% below Guinea's 2025 export run-rate of around 200 million tonnes. The order cites resource conservation and price stabilisation: [Guinea's](/ja/entity/guinea-bauxite) bauxite export price had fallen roughly 50% from early-2025 peaks as the country's producers flooded the market. The cap is imposed across all concession holders, including CBG, SMB-Winning and Winning Consortium Simandou. The same week, Aluminium Corporation of China subsidiary Chalco opened a $1 billion alumina refinery at Boffa on June 13, 2026, with 1 million tonnes per year of alumina nameplate capacity; since the export restriction applies to bauxite ore and not alumina, Chalco's refinery is structurally exempt and its supply chain is insulated. Separately, British Virgin Islands-registered Axis International filed a $28.9 billion ICSID arbitration against Guinea in March 2026 following the revocation of its Boké region exploration permits. Guinea supplies 75.3% of China's bauxite imports, and a 25% volume reduction would remove the equivalent of 6-8 weeks of Chinese alumina refinery feedstock.

## The split

The Guinean government frames the export cap as a conservation and price-support measure: with bauxite prices 50% below early-2025 levels, the state was watching its primary mineral revenue base erode while producers raced each other to volume. Supporters of the cap in Guinea's civil society add that China's extraction of raw ore without in-country refining captured minimal domestic value, and that Chalco's Boffa refinery is the model the cap is designed to incentivise. Chinese industry observers and trade media (Alcircle) focus on the supply-chain disruption: 75% of Chinese bauxite imports from one politically volatile source creates a feedstock concentration risk now crystallising. Australian miners (Rio Tinto Weipa, South32 Worsley) see the cap as a medium-term demand pull for their product, but Australian bauxite quality and logistics do not substitute Guinean supply at 12-month notice. The Axis International $28.9B arbitration is the largest-known claim filed against Guinea; its merit turns on whether Doumbouya's permit revocations comply with the UK-Guinea BIT and ICSID rules, which Guinea has contested vigorously in prior arbitrations.

## By the numbers

- 150Mt, Guinea's new annual bauxite export ceiling (effective June 1, 2026).
- ~200Mt, Guinea's estimated 2025 annual bauxite exports.
- ~25%, implied reduction from the 2025 run-rate under the new cap.
- ~50%, decline in Guinean bauxite export prices from early-2025 peaks.
- 75.3%, Guinea's share of China's bauxite imports in 2025.
- $1B, Chalco's Boffa alumina refinery investment (opened June 13, 2026).
- 1 million tpa, Boffa refinery alumina nameplate (2 million tpa planned by 2028).
- $28.9B, Axis International's ICSID arbitration claim against Guinea (filed March 2026).

## Why it matters

[Guinea](/ja/entity/guinea-bauxite) holds the world's largest bauxite reserves. The June 2026 export cap is the most direct supply constraint the Doumbouya government has imposed on the bauxite sector, more structural than the EGA-GAC concession dispute resolved in May 2026. For China, which processes Guinea's ore into [aluminium](/ja/entity/aluminium) via its coastal and inland refinery network, a 25% volume cut is not immediately acute if strategic stockpiles hold, but it accelerates pressure to diversify feedstock sources and to invest in in-country refining, which Chalco has already done at Boffa. For Western aluminium producers (EGA, Rusal, Alcoa), the cap tightens global bauxite availability and puts upward pressure on CIF prices for non-Chinese buyers, who compete in a thinner ex-Guinea market. The Axis International arbitration, if it proceeds, will test whether Guinea's BIT obligations constrain the government's ability to revoke permits granted under prior administrations, a question that matters for every legacy mining concession in the country.

## What to watch

- How Guinea allocates the 150Mt cap across concession holders: whether pro-rata or discretionary allocation advantages Chinese-backed SMB-Winning over CBG and Western-held concessions.
- Bauxite spot price response to the cap: whether prices recover from the 50%-below-2025-peak level, which would validate the government's price-support rationale.
- Chalco Boffa Phase 2 expansion financing: whether the 2028 target for 2 million tpa alumina is achieved and whether other Chinese investors follow the refinery model to secure exemptions from the ore export cap.
- The Axis International ICSID case: Guinea's counter-memorial due in September 2026 will clarify the government's legal theory on permit revocations.
- Guinea's political calendar: the Doumbouya government has repeatedly promised a transition to civilian rule; if elections are held in 2026-2027, mining policy could shift.

## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens)

### unlabelled
- **Republic of Guinea Ministry of Mines and Geology (Arrêté 2026/MMG/CAB/0447)** (Guinea, fr) — Ministerial order 2026/MMG/CAB/0447 establishes an annual ceiling of 150 million dry metric tonnes on Guinea's total bauxite exports, effective June 1, 2026. The order states the cap is intended to conserve the national bauxite resource, ensure value-addition processing is developed in-country, and stabilise international bauxite prices, which fell approximately 50% from early-2025 peaks. Producers with existing concession agreements must file new export schedules with the Ministry of Mines within 60 days.
  Source: https://www.minesguinee.gov.gn/textes-officiels/arrete-2026-mmg-cab-0447-plafond-exportations-bauxite
- **Aluminium Corporation of China (Chalco) (Press Release ,  Boffa Refinery)** (China / Guinea, zh) — Chalco (Aluminium Corporation of China, a subsidiary of Chinalco) confirmed the formal opening of its Boffa alumina refinery in Guinea on June 13, 2026. The refinery represents a $1 billion investment, processes Guinean bauxite into alumina on-site and ships alumina to Chalco's Chinese smelters, reducing the volume of raw bauxite exported and increasing in-country value capture. Nameplate capacity is 1 million tonnes per year of alumina, with a 2028 expansion to 2 million tpa planned.
  Source: https://www.chinalco.com.cn/news/2026/06/boffa-alumina-refinery-opening-guinea.html
- **International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID)** (Global, en) — ICSID case ARB/26/14: Axis International Management (British Virgin Islands) vs Republic of Guinea. Claim amount $28.9 billion. Axis alleges unlawful revocation of bauxite exploration and exploitation permits in the Boké region, breach of the bilateral investment treaty between Guinea and the UK, and expropriation without compensation. Case registered March 20, 2026; Guinea has 90 days to file a counter-memorial.
  Source: https://icsid.worldbank.org/cases/case-database/case-detail?CaseNo=ARB-26-14
- **Alcircle** (India, en) — 
  Source: https://www.alcircle.com/news/guinea-bauxite-export-cap-150mt-china-alumina-impact-2026
- **Wood Mackenzie (Guinea Bauxite Supply Risk Report Q2 2026)** (United Kingdom, en) — 
  Source: https://www.woodmac.com/market-insights/topics/guinea-bauxite-supply-risk-2026/
- **Platts / S&P Global (Bauxite pricing tracker)** (United States, en) — 
  Source: https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/062326-guinea-bauxite-price-export-cap-june-2026

### wire / commodity
- **Reuters** (United Kingdom, en) — Reuters reports on the Guinea bauxite export cap announcement, noting that Guinea exported approximately 200 million tonnes of bauxite in 2025, making the 150Mt cap a reduction of roughly 25%; quotes an industry official saying the cap will be pro-rated across existing concession holders; notes that major producers including CBG (Compagnie des Bauxites de Guinée), Winning Consortium Simandou and SMB-Winning will all be affected. China received 75.3% of its bauxite imports from Guinea in 2025.
  > "Guinea's 150Mt bauxite export cap cuts approximately 25% from the 2025 run-rate and affects all concession holders including CBG and SMB-Winning."
  Source: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/guinea-bauxite-export-cap-150mt-june-2026/

### international financial press
- **Financial Times** (United Kingdom, en) — FT analysis focuses on the China-Guinea dependency: with 75% of Chinese bauxite imports sourced from Guinea, a 25% cut in Guinean export volumes, if enforced, would remove approximately 50 million tonnes from the China supply, equivalent to 6-8 weeks of China's alumina refinery feedstock consumption. Notes that Australian bauxite (Rio Tinto Weipa, South32) and Malaysian laterite cannot substitute at scale on a 12-month horizon; Chinese strategic bauxite stockpiles are estimated at 30-45 days. Interviews Chalco officials who describe the Boffa refinery as 'insulating' Chalco from the export cap since alumina is not covered by the ore-export restriction.
  > "Guinea's bauxite cap threatens to remove 50 million tonnes from China's alumina supply, equivalent to 6-8 weeks of refinery feedstock; Chalco's Boffa alumina refinery is exempt as a processed product."
  Source: https://www.ft.com/content/guinea-bauxite-cap-china-aluminium-supply-chain-2026

### African business and policy
- **African Business (IC Publications)** (United Kingdom / Africa, en) — African Business contextualises the export cap within Guinea's broader resource-nationalism trajectory under the Mamadi Doumbouya transitional government: the cap follows the revocation of Axis International permits, the EGA-GAC settlement, and the Simandou iron-ore renegotiation, establishing a pattern of asserting state control over mineral rents from concessions signed under prior administrations. Notes that Guinea has received commitments from Chinese investors for three additional in-country alumina refineries but none has broken ground.
  > "Guinea's bauxite export cap is the latest in a pattern of resource-nationalism moves under the Doumbouya government, following the Axis permit revocation and EGA-GAC settlement."
  Source: https://african.business/2026/06/mining/guinea-bauxite-cap-resource-nationalism-china-aluminium/

## Across the graph
- Related: [[guinea-ega-bauxite-settlement]]
- Entities: Guinea Bauxite, Aluminium

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