# The largest oil supply disruption on record
> Brent peaked near $118 in March; post-ceasefire normalisation has it at $75.57 by June 24, but a 500-vessel queue and the Qatar LNG explosion keep markets unsettled

**Meta:** type: story · date: 2026-06-22 · heads: What Broke, How Wars Actually End · 6 takes · 5 lenses · 6 regions

## Summary

After US-Israeli strikes on [Iran](/ja/entity/iran) beginning 28 February, Iran restricted nearly all
traffic through the [Strait of Hormuz](/ja/entity/strait-of-hormuz), stranding Gulf crude and LNG. Brent rose from
~$72 to above $118 by early March; producers shut in roughly 11 mb/d by May as storage
filled, the IEA's largest-ever recorded supply disruption. The [US and Iran sign 14-point memorandum to end the war](/ja/n/iran-us-ceasefire-mou)
of 17 June sent Brent below $80; a brief Hormuz re-closure on June 20 (Iran citing
Lebanon strikes) spiked it back before the strait re-opened within hours. By June 24,
Brent traded at $75.57, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a Q4 floor around $80 as tanker
queues clear. More than 20 tankers crossed post-ceasefire; 500-plus vessels remain
queued. The concurrent [Explosion at Qatar's Barzan gas facility kills 13, slashes LNG exports](/ja/n/qatar-lng-ras-laffan-explosion) is suppressing LNG
normalisation independent of the Hormuz situation.

## The split

The IEA and energy traders read the disruption as effectively over, normalisation is
underway. Brookings argues strategic reserves, demand destruction and OPEC spare
capacity blunted the shock throughout, and that the $118 peak was partly speculative.
[Tehran](/ja/entity/iran) frames re-opening Hormuz as a sovereign concession, not a defeat, and
retains the re-closure threat as primary leverage over the Lebanon clause. Gulf producers
, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, suffered their own shut-ins as vessels backed up; they
have a structural interest in rapid normalisation that aligns with, but does not depend
on, the ceasefire's durability.

## By the numbers

- $118, Brent peak (early March 2026).
- $79.25, Brent June 22, 2026 (first post-ceasefire read).
- $75.57, Brent June 24, 2026.
- ~$80, Goldman Sachs Q4 2026 floor forecast.
- 11.3 mb/d, peak supply disruption (May; IEA).
- 500+, tankers queued at Hormuz post-ceasefire.
- 20+, tankers transiting Hormuz June 22-24.

## Why it matters

Roughly 20% of seaborne oil and LNG transit the [Strait of Hormuz](/ja/entity/strait-of-hormuz). The closure
removed ~10 mb/d at peak and reset global fuel and fertilizer prices, transmitting into
freight and central-bank policy. De-escalation is real but fragile: the
[Explosion at Qatar's Barzan gas facility kills 13, slashes LNG exports](/ja/n/qatar-lng-ras-laffan-explosion) has separately cut global LNG spot supply ~20%; the
Lebanon clause gives Iran leverage to re-close; and 500 tankers queued simultaneously
cannot exit without weeks of managed transit, capping the pace of price recovery.

## What to watch

- Whether the tanker queue clears without incident over the next four to six weeks.
- Whether Lebanon triggers a further Hormuz interruption.
- Whether the Qatar LNG explosion recovery shortfall lifts Asian LNG spot prices through Q3.
- [OPEC+ July output decision](/ja/n/opec-plus-july-output) and its interaction with post-disruption market rebalancing.

## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens)

### institutional analysis
- **IEA** (France/OECD, en) — Characterises the episode as the largest supply disruption in the history of the oil market; tracks shut-ins rising as Gulf storage saturated; peak disruption 11.3 mb/d in May.
  > "Production shut-ins averaged 11.3 million barrels per day in May, the IEA's largest-ever recorded supply disruption."
  Source: https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-may-2026

### regional
- **Al Jazeera** (Qatar, en) — Reports Brent falling sharply after the ceasefire framework; prices only ~7% above pre-conflict levels by June 22; a brief second Hormuz closure June 20 cited Lebanon strikes.
  > "Oil prices dropped after the US and Iran signed an interim agreement, but a brief second closure spooked markets."
  Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/6/18/oil-prices-fall-stocks-rally-as-us-iran-sign-framework-to-end-war

### development economics
- **World Bank Blogs** (US/global, en) — Frames the disruption around input-cost spillovers, warning nitrogen-fertilizer prices could roughly double and threatening staple-crop yields during spring planting.
  > "The restriction raised energy and agricultural input costs worldwide."
  Source: https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/strait-of-hormuz-disruption-sends-oil-prices-surging

### skeptical counterpoint
- **Brookings** (US, en) — Argues spare capacity, strategic reserves and demand destruction blunted the shock; the $118 peak was short-lived; Goldman Sachs Q4 floor forecast at $80.
  > "The worst, as far as supply disruptions go, may be behind us."
  Source: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-timing-of-the-impending-crude-crisis/

### unlabelled
- **Reuters** (Global, en) — 
  Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/
- **Bloomberg Energy** (United States, en) — 
  Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/energy

## Across the graph
- Related: [[iran-us-ceasefire-mou]], [[hormuz-cape-diversion-freight]], [[iran-oil-sanctions-relief]], [[qatar-lng-ras-laffan-explosion]], [[opec-plus-july-output]]
- Entities: Strait of Hormuz, Iran, Oil, OPEC

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Canonical: https://rbtfl.xyz/ja/n/hormuz-oil-supply-shock