# Brazil's 2026/27 coffee harvest forecast hits 71.9 million bags, a potential record, but prices have fallen 28-46% from 2025 peaks > USDA and CONAB projections show a 14% production jump in Brazil's biennial high-cycle year, creating a global arabica surplus of up to 9.5 million bags; growers are holding back beans hoping for price recovery **Meta:** type: story · date: 2026-06-04 · heads: 누구의 돈인가, 조용한 변화 · 8 takes · 4 lenses · 5 regions ## Summary Brazil's 2026/27 coffee harvest is forecast to reach 71.9 million 60-kilogram bags, a 14.1% increase on the prior year and potentially the highest ever recorded by CONAB, the Brazilian agricultural supply company. The jump reflects the biennial high-cycle year for arabica trees and favourable growing conditions. Despite the production record, arabica farmgate prices in Brazil have fallen sharply: the April 2026 average of BRL 1,811.87 per 60-kg bag was 28% below April 2025, and robusta fell 46% year-on-year. Rabobank has raised its estimate of the global arabica surplus to 9.5 million bags for 2026/27. Brazilian growers are withholding beans from the physical market hoping for price recovery, creating short-term tightness in cash markets even as futures point to eventual oversupply. A separate pressure comes from the Strait of Hormuz closure, which has raised freight and insurance costs on all commodity trade routes, compressing grower margins further. ## The split Brazilian agricultural media and farmer organisations focused on the farmgate price collapse as the story, framing the record harvest as a "value trap" in which growers produce more but earn less. International commodity and trade press, based mostly in the United States, Netherlands and Australia, led with the surplus signal and its likely impact on global retail coffee prices through 2027. Vietnamese and Indonesian coffee media, covering two of the other major producers, noted that their own robusta output would compound the Brazilian arabica surplus rather than offset it. Consumer-country media in Europe and Japan gave the supply-side story limited coverage. ## By the numbers - 71.9 million bags, Brazil's 2026/27 coffee production forecast (60-kg bags) - 14.1%, year-on-year increase in Brazilian output - BRL 1,811.87, average arabica farmgate price per bag in April 2026 - -28%, arabica price change versus April 2025 - -46%, robusta price change versus April 2025 in Brazil - 9.5 million bags, Rabobank's 2026/27 global arabica surplus estimate - 278.40 USD/lb, ICE arabica futures price on July 1, 2026 ## Why it matters Coffee is a US$460 billion annual consumer market and a primary income source for roughly 125 million smallholder farmers across Latin America, Africa and Southeast Asia. A 28-46% farmgate price decline on top of rising input and freight costs threatens household incomes at the farm level even when port-level export volumes and consumer retail prices do not immediately reflect the shift. The withholding strategy by larger Brazilian producers buys time but cannot absorb a 9.5-million-bag structural surplus indefinitely. ## What to watch - Whether Rabobank's surplus estimate is revised higher or lower as the Brazil harvest progresses through Q3 2026. - USDA's monthly WASDE coffee update, which incorporates harvest quality as well as quantity. - Whether grower withholding in Brazil causes a physical-market squeeze in futures delivery months. - The impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure on maritime freight rates for coffee exports from Brazil and Vietnam. ## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens) ### unlabelled - **USDA Foreign Agricultural Service** (United States, en) — USDA FAS Coffee Annual for Brazil: production forecast at 71.9 million 60-kilogram bags for market year 2026/27, a 14.1% increase on 2025/26 and the high side of the biennial production cycle. Arabica output dominates, with robusta growing as a share. Exports are also expected to set records. Source: https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Coffee+Annual_Brasilia_Brazil_BR2026-0025.pdf - **Barchart** (United States, en) — Source: https://www.barchart.com/story/news/2384733/brazil-harvest-pressures-weigh-on-coffee-prices - **Fresh Cup Magazine** (United States, en) — Source: https://freshcup.com/record-breaking-harvest-in-brazil-could-influence-global-coffee-prices/ - **Trading Economics** (Global, en) — Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coffee - **Rio Times Online** (Brazil, en) — Source: https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-coffee-2026-value-trap-record-harvest-explainer/ ### specialty coffee trade press - **Daily Coffee News** (United States, en) — Daily Coffee News covered the USDA Brazil report on June 4, noting the interplay between record production and depressed farmgate prices: arabica averaged BRL 1,811.87 per 60-kg bag in April 2026, down 28% from April 2025 (which itself was a boom year), while robusta fell 46% year-on-year. Brazilian growers are withholding supply from the market in expectation of price recovery, creating physical tightness even as futures predict surplus. > "Brazil coffee report: record crop and exports expected for 2026/27 as farmgate prices fall sharply from 2025 peak levels." Source: https://dailycoffeenews.com/2026/06/04/brazil-coffee-report-record-crop-and-exports-expected-for-2026-27/ ### international coffee industry trade press - **Global Coffee Report** (Australia, en) — The Global Coffee Report, published in Australia and covering the global supply chain, noted that Brazil is on track for a record harvest based on flowering surveys and tree-health indicators, and contextualised the 14% rise as typical of the biennial on-year following a lighter 2025/26 crop. The piece stressed that multiple origin risks remain, including the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure on freight and insurance costs. > "Brazil on track for record coffee harvest in 2026, potentially above previous production records." Source: https://www.gcrmag.com/brazil-on-track-for-record-coffee-harvest-in-2026/ ### commodity banking, supply-demand balance - **Rabobank** (Netherlands, en) — Rabobank raised its 2026/27 global arabica coffee surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags from an earlier 7.0 million bag estimate, reflecting the scale of the Brazil crop and the likelihood that other origins (Vietnam, Colombia, Honduras) will also perform well. The bank cautioned that producer withholding is masking the surplus signal in the physical market. > "Rabobank raises 2026/27 global arabica surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags as Brazil record harvest approaches market." Source: https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-coffee-2026-value-trap-record-harvest-explainer/ ## Across the graph - Entities: Commodity:coffee --- Canonical: https://rbtfl.xyz/ko/n/brazil-coffee-record-harvest-2026