# Cobalt
> The transition metal underpinning lithium-ion batteries, with the Democratic Republic of Congo supplying roughly 76% of world mine output and wielding OPEC-style export quotas since late 2025.

**Meta:** type: reference · date: 2026-07-03 · heads:  · 4 takes · 2 lenses · 2 regions

## What it is

Cobalt is a hard, silver-gray transition metal (atomic number 27) mined almost entirely as a byproduct of copper and nickel ore. Rechargeable batteries account for roughly 75% of global demand, with the remainder split between aerospace superalloys, hard metals, and industrial catalysts. It is designated a critical mineral by the United States, the European Union, Japan, and most OECD economies because of its extreme geographic concentration and its irreplaceable role in NMC and NCA lithium-ion cathode chemistries. The key actors are the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) as the dominant miner, China as the dominant refiner, and a handful of mining majors, including Glencore and CMOC (China Molybdenum Co.), as industrial producers.

## History

Commercial cobalt extraction in the DRC dates to Belgian colonial-era Katanga Province mining. Production collapsed during the wars of 1994-2003 and recovered through artisanal and then industrial expansion. The first battery supercycle drove prices to roughly US$95,000 per tonne in March 2018, which prompted battery chemists to reduce cobalt intensity through NMC 811 and iron-phosphate (LFP) cathode formulations. Prices crashed below US$25,000 per tonne by 2022 as Glencore restarted the Mutanda mine (2022) and CMOC expanded Tenke Fungurume (TFM), flooding an already oversupplied market. By late 2024, spot prices had fallen below US$23,000 per tonne, the lowest in real terms since 2016, triggering state intervention from Kinshasa.

## Current state

In February 2025 the DRC government imposed a cobalt export ban, initially four months, later extended to roughly eight months. The ban was lifted in October 2025 and replaced by an OPEC-style quota system administered by ARECOMS, the DRC state cobalt authority. The [2026 quotas](/ko/n/drc-cobalt-quota-2026) cap hydroxide exports at approximately 87,000-96,000 tonnes, with 9,600 tonnes held in strategic reserve. CMOC's TFM produced 117,549 tonnes of cobalt in 2025 but received a 2026 export quota of only 31,200 tonnes. Glencore's KCC and Mutanda banked their entire fourth-quarter 2025 quota, exporting nothing in that period; Glencore's total 2025 cobalt output was 36,100 tonnes, down 5% from 38,200 tonnes in 2024, as the company prioritised copper. The [price recovery](/ko/n/cobalt-price-recovery-2026) pushed cobalt from roughly US$21,000 per tonne in early 2025 to above US$56,000 per tonne by mid-2026. The DRC accounted for an estimated 76% of world mine production in 2024, with Indonesia second at about 10%, per USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026. World mine output in 2025 totalled approximately 310,000 metric tonnes.

## Relationships

The cobalt supply chain runs from mine to hydroxide to cathode precursor to cell. In the DRC, Glencore's KCC and Mutanda and the [CMOC TFM complex](/ko/n/cmoc-tfm-strike-quota-2026) are the two largest industrial nodes. Chinese refiners, led by Huayou Cobalt, process the majority of DRC hydroxide; Huayou's [Indonesia EV chain expansion](/ko/n/huayou-indonesia-ev-chain-2026) is diversifying its raw-material base. Western policy is pushing back: the EU's [Critical Raw Materials Act](/ko/n/eu-crma-strategic-projects) lists cobalt as a strategic material, and the US IRA manufacturing credit caught in the [One Big Beautiful Bill, 2027년까지 IRA 풍력 세액공제 단계적 폐지하고 FEOC 공급자의 45X 광물 공제 제한, 야금용 석탄 공제 신설](/ko/n/ira-45x-one-big-beautiful-bill) dispute was designed to reward domestic processing. [Commercial-scale battery recycling](/ko/n/battery-recycling-commercial-scale-2026) is beginning to return cobalt to the supply chain, and recycled scrap supplied roughly 25% of US cobalt consumption in 2025. LFP chemistries, which use no cobalt, captured about 40% of new EV battery deployments in 2024. Artisanal and small-scale mining in the DRC's southern Copperbelt remains a persistent human-rights flashpoint, with child-labour concerns in informal hand-dug pits that feed into formal hydroxide supply chains.

## What to watch

Whether the DRC's quota architecture holds as industrial producers lobby for higher ceilings. The trajectory of LFP adoption, which structurally suppresses cobalt demand even as EV volumes grow. US strategic reserves: a Pentagon solicitation to procure 7,480 tonnes for the National Defense Stockpile was cancelled in 2025, leaving the US with minimal government holdings. The [US-backed Orion CMC deal](/ko/n/glencore-drc-orion-2026) to acquire 40% of Glencore's DRC assets, if completed, would give Washington indirect leverage over two of the DRC's largest mines. The IEA projects cobalt demand to grow 50-60% by 2040 under stated-policy scenarios, meaning today's oversupply could invert as battery gigafactories scale.

## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens)

### official record
- **U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (Cobalt)** (North America, en) — Annual USGS data sheet covering 2024-2025 cobalt mine and refinery production, end-use breakdown, DRC share (~76%), Indonesia share (~10%), and world total of ~310,000 tonnes.
  Source: https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-cobalt.pdf
- **IEA, Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025** (Global, en) — IEA projects cobalt demand to grow 50-60% by 2040; flags DRC export ban (Feb 2025) and China refining dominance; top-three producers held 86% market share in 2024.
  Source: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2025
- **USGS National Minerals Information Center, Cobalt Statistics and Information** (North America, en) — Landing page for historical US and world cobalt data series, production, consumption, trade, and price statistics maintained by the USGS.
  Source: https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/cobalt-statistics-and-information

### company IR
- **Glencore, Full Year 2025 Production Report** (Global, en) — Glencore reported 36,100 tonnes cobalt in 2025 (down 5% on 2024); KCC and Mutanda banked Q4 2025 export quota after DRC ban; no 2026 guidance issued.
  Source: https://www.glencore.com/media-and-insights/news/full-year-2025-production-report

## Across the graph
- Related: [[drc-cobalt-quota-2026]], [[cobalt-price-recovery-2026]], [[cmoc-tfm-strike-quota-2026]], [[glencore-drc-orion-2026]], [[huayou-indonesia-ev-chain-2026]], [[battery-recycling-commercial-scale-2026]], [[eu-crma-strategic-projects]], [[ira-45x-one-big-beautiful-bill]]
- Entities: Commodity:cobalt, Drc, Corporate:glencore, Corporate:cmoc, Huayou

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