# Gold closes Q2 2026 down 14%, its steepest quarterly fall on record, at $3,986
> Spot gold ended the June 30 Asian session near $3,942, a year-to-date low, and will close Q2 roughly 14% lower, erasing its entire 2026 gain, as Fed rate-hike expectations and a cooling Iran ceasefire reversed the safe-haven bid that pushed gold to $5,598 in January.

**Meta:** type: event · date: 2026-06-30 · heads: 누구의 돈인가, 조용한 변화 · 4 takes · 3 lenses · 3 regions

## Summary

Gold ended the June 30 Asian session near $3,942, a year-to-date low, and is set to close Q2 2026 down roughly 14%, the steepest quarterly percentage decline on record. The metal last traded above $4,000 on June 24 and is down about 29% from its January 2026 all-time high of $5,597.91, erasing the entire 2026 gain. The sell-off began on June 5, when a stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls print sent gold down 3.3% in a single session, ending the rate-cut narrative and triggering outflows from gold ETFs. The subsequent [미국과 이란, 14개 항목 양해각서 서명으로 전쟁 종결](/ko/n/iran-us-ceasefire-mou) further eroded safe-haven demand: the war-risk premium that had driven gold to its January peak unwound as Hormuz reopened and shipping resumed. Markets are now pricing at least two [US Federal Reserve](/ko/entity/us-federal-reserve) rate hikes by year-end, raising the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Q2 2026 goes in the record books as the worst quarter for gold since benchmark records began.

## Why it matters

The January 2026 gold peak was partly financed by [누구의 돈인가](/ko/head/whose-money) flows from central banks and retail investors in Asia and the Gulf seeking dollar alternatives, driven by sanction fears and the Iran war premium. A 29% reversal questions that thesis and may reduce central bank accumulation rates in H2 2026, particularly if [US Federal Reserve](/ko/entity/us-federal-reserve) follows through with hikes. For producers, margins are compressing: all-in sustaining costs for major miners cluster around $1,200-$1,500 per ounce, so $3,986 still implies fat margins, but the direction matters for expansion capex decisions.

## What to watch

- The June 30 Q2 close price, which cements the record quarterly decline figure.
- July US CPI and non-farm payrolls as the next key drivers.
- Whether the PCE data released this week pushes gold toward the $3,900 level analysts have cited.
- Central bank purchasing data for Q2 2026, expected from IMF in late July.

## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens)

### US financial media; gold and silver market analysis framing the drop through the lens of Fed rate expectations and Middle East risk premium
- **CNBC** (United States, en) — Reported gold's first sustained move below $4,000 since November 2025 on June 25, trading at $3,972 per ounce at 9:05 a.m. ET. Framed it as the Federal Reserve's rate-hike pivot unwinding the gold trade, with analysts noting the Iran ceasefire removed the war-risk premium that had powered the January record. Noted silver also fell below $60 for the first time in months.
  > "Gold hovers around $4,000, silver holds below $60. Has the shimmer worn off the precious metal rally?"
  Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/25/gold-silver-price-rally-invest-interest-rates.html

### personal finance readership; explained the decline in terms of consumer impact on jewellery and savings products
- **Yahoo Finance** (United States, en) — Reported the threshold breach with same-day price data, noting this was the first time gold had traded below $4,000 since November 2025. Cited analysts saying the June 5 non-farm payrolls print, which wiped 3.3% off gold in a single session, as the moment the rate-cut narrative definitively ended.
  > "Prices fall below $4,000 for the first time since Nov. '25."
  Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/investing/article/gold-prices-today-thursday-june-25-2026-prices-fall-below-4000-for-the-first-time-since-nov-25-115127713.html

### unlabelled
- **Trading Economics** (Global, en) — 
  Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold
- **Bigul (market analysis)** (India, en) — 
  Source: https://bigul.co/blog/market-update/gold-prices-under-pressure-whats-driving-the-decline-in-june-2026

## Across the graph
- Related: [[iran-us-ceasefire-mou]], [[brent-crude-post-ceasefire-floor-2026]], [[brent-crude-iran-recovery]]
- Entities: US Federal Reserve, Iran, Place:strait of Hormuz

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