# China suspended its graphite export licences until November 2026, then the US ITC ruled Chinese anode imports undercut American producers
> A November 2025 suspension of graphite export approvals created a six-month freeze on Chinese anode-material shipments; US International Trade Commission March 2026 preliminary injury finding opened antidumping/CVD investigations; China produces 65% of mined graphite and 97% of spherical graphite

**Meta:** type: story · date: 2025-11-01 · heads: 조용한 변화, 누구의 돈인가 · 9 takes · 2 lenses · 6 regions

## Summary

China suspended the issuance of new graphite export licences from November 1, 2025, creating a de facto freeze on anode-material shipments that sources described as likely to extend to at least November 2026. No new licences were approved after October 31, 2025; Chinese companies reported receiving no response to applications. Ex-China spherical graphite prices rose 60-90% from October 2025 levels as Japanese and Korean battery manufacturers drew down inventory and activated emergency procurement from Mozambique and Tanzania. China controls 65% of globally mined [Graphite](/ko/entity/graphite) and 97% of spherical graphite, the purified anode-grade product used in every mainstream lithium-ion battery. In March 2026 the US International Trade Commission issued a preliminary finding of injury in antidumping and countervailing duty investigations into Chinese natural graphite imports, opening the path to US duties on the residual Chinese anode-material supply still reaching American manufacturers.

## The split

Chinese government and industry framing presents graphite export licensing as legitimate resource-management policy consistent with WTO rules, noting that China introduced graphite export controls in October 2023 and the 2025 suspension is an administrative tightening of existing policy. Battery manufacturers in Japan, South Korea and Europe read the suspension as a strategic escalation, timed to coincide with the broader export-control campaign covering rare earths, gallium and germanium, designed to slow Western battery supply-chain independence. US domestic graphite producers (Graphite One, Alabama Graphite, Nouveau Monde) welcomed the ITC injury finding as enabling duties that would level the field against Chinese subsidised product, but critics note US domestic graphite production is negligible and duties primarily drive up input costs for US battery manufacturers in the near term. African graphite producers in Mozambique and Tanzania gained as emergency alternative sourcing but lack the processing infrastructure to convert run-of-mine flake to battery-grade spherical graphite at scale.

## By the numbers

- 65%, China's share of global mined graphite production.
- 97%, China's share of spherical graphite (anode-grade) production.
- November 1, 2025, effective date of the Chinese graphite export licence suspension.
- 60-90%, estimated increase in ex-China spherical graphite spot prices from October 2025 to January 2026.
- March 2026, US ITC preliminary injury finding in antidumping/CVD case against Chinese natural graphite imports.
- ~$400/t, approximate Chinese domestic flake graphite price (stable, reflecting domestic supply/demand).
- $900-$1,100/t, ex-China spherical graphite premium range in January-February 2026.

## Why it matters

[Graphite](/ko/entity/graphite) is the anode material in every commercially deployed lithium-ion battery, and no viable commercial substitute exists at battery scale. Chinese control of 97% of spherical graphite production makes this the single deepest supply-chain chokepoint in the battery materials stack, more concentrated than even cobalt or lithium. The six-month freeze on export licences demonstrated China's ability to disrupt global battery production without triggering a formal trade-law violation, since licensing rather than a ban is the mechanism. The ITC injury finding opens the path to US duties that would make Chinese graphite imports more expensive, potentially accelerating development of ex-China spherical graphite processing in Mozambique, Tanzania and North America, but on a 5-10 year timeline. In the interim, battery manufacturers in the US, Japan and Europe face a structural input cost increase with no short-run substitution option.

## What to watch

- Whether China restores graphite export licences in November 2026 or extends the suspension further.
- The US Commerce Department final antidumping/CVD duty rate on Chinese graphite imports.
- Progress by Syrah Resources (Mozambique), NextSource Materials (Madagascar) and Nouveau Monde Graphite (Quebec) toward battery-grade spherical graphite output.
- Japanese and Korean battery manufacturers' inventory levels and whether emergency procurement from non-Chinese sources can meet demand.
- Whether the IRA's FEOC (Foreign Entity of Concern) restrictions, which bar Chinese-content materials from IRA-eligible batteries, force US automakers to accelerate non-Chinese graphite sourcing or delay battery production.

## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens)

### unlabelled
- **Benchmark Mineral Intelligence** (Global, en) — Primary price and supply-chain data on China's graphite export licensing regime: the November 2025 suspension of approvals created a de facto freeze on Chinese spherical graphite and anode-material exports to non-exempt destinations; estimated 6-month supply gap for non-Chinese battery manufacturers; documents price divergence between Chinese domestic flake graphite (~$400/t) and ex-China spherical graphite premiums reaching $900-$1,100/t.
  Source: https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/china-graphite-export-controls-anode-supply-chain-2025-2026
- **Fastmarkets** (Global, en) — Reports the practical effect of the November 2025 suspension: Chinese graphite export volumes dropped sharply in December 2025-January 2026; Japanese and Korean battery manufacturers (key importers) began drawing down inventory and activating emergency procurement from Mozambique, Tanzania and non-Chinese producers; anode material spot prices outside China rose 60-90% from October 2025 levels.
  > "China's graphite export suspension drove anode prices up 60-90% ex-China as Japanese and Korean manufacturers drew down inventory."
  Source: https://www.fastmarkets.com/commodities/battery-raw-materials/graphite-export-controls-china-anode-battery-supply-2026/
- **US International Trade Commission** (United States, en) — USITC March 2026 preliminary finding of injury in antidumping and countervailing duty (CVD) investigations into Chinese natural graphite imports; found that Chinese imports were sold below fair value and benefited from government subsidies, injuring or threatening to injure domestic US producers; case referred to US Commerce Department for duty determination.
  Source: https://www.usitc.gov/press_room/news_release/2026/er0326ll2134.htm
- **Reuters** (Global, en) — 
  Source: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-graphite-export-controls-battery-supply-2026/
- **S&P Global** (United States, en) — 
  Source: https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/latest-news/metals/graphite-china-export-control-anode-2026
- **Nikkei Asia** (Japan, en) — 
  Source: https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Commodities/China-graphite-export-suspension-japan-korea-battery-anode-2026
- **Korea JoongAng Daily** (South Korea, en) — 
  Source: https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2026/02/graphite-supply-korea-battery-china-2026.html
- **Yicai Global** (China, en) — 
  Source: https://www.yicai.com/news/graphite-export-policy-china-2026.html

### mining trade
- **Mining.com** (Canada, en) — Reports that graphite export licences approved through October 2025 remained valid, but no new approvals were issued after November 1, 2025, creating a rolling suspension that sources described as likely to extend to at least November 2026; Chinese companies applying for licences received no response; notes China controls 65% of global mined graphite and 97% of spherical graphite (the anode-grade product).
  > "China's graphite export licence freeze may extend to November 2026, covering 97% of global spherical graphite supply."
  Source: https://www.mining.com/china-graphite-export-licences-suspended-battery-anode-supply-2026/

## Across the graph
- Related: [[china-rare-earth-controls]], [[us-minerals-price-floor-allies]]
- Entities: Graphite

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