# Kashmir's war shifts south: militants quit the Valley and dig into Jammu's Pir Panjal forests
> A year after Operation Sindoor the ceasefire holds technically, but the active front has moved, militants now favour Rajouri, Poonch and the Chenab valley, where forest terrain blunts India's surveillance advantage

**Meta:** type: story · date: 2026-05-07 · heads: 전쟁은 실제로 어떻게 끝나는가, 그들이 말하지 않는 것 · 11 takes · 6 lenses · 4 regions

## Summary

A year after Operation Sindoor (May 7, 2025) forced a ceasefire, [India](/ko/entity/india) and [Pakistan](/ko/entity/country/pakistan) have not normalised a single bilateral channel: no flights, no trade, no diplomatic restoration. The violence has not stopped, it has relocated. The Kashmir Valley's high-surveillance environment, AI cameras, drone coverage, army checkpoints, has pushed infiltrators south into the Pir Panjal mountains and Chenab valley of the Jammu division, where steep forested terrain blunts India's technological edge. India launched Operation Sheruwali in Rajouri's Manjakote sector on May 23, 2026, the longest running counter-terrorism operation in the Jammu region in recent years. Security forces foiled five cross-LoC infiltration attempts January-May 2026 across Machil, Uri, Krishna Ghati, Nowshera and Rajouri. The Pahalgam attack's perpetrators from The Resistance Front (TRF, an LeT proxy) were killed in July 2025, and an LeT senior commander, Sheikh Yusuf Afridi, was targeted in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on April 28, one of 30-plus militant figures killed under ambiguous circumstances in Pakistan in early 2026. Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, whose National Conference won elections in September 2024, is demanding statehood restoration at Parliament's monsoon session. Indian intelligence reports a new ISI tactic: infiltrating civil society and political organisations rather than sending armed fighters.

## The split

The Indian security establishment and publications like [[ORF]] frame the Jammu shift as a managed containment: the Valley is largely pacified and the army is suppressing the remaining threat. ACLED's independent conflict data and [[The Diplomat]] read it as threat persistence in a different geography. Pakistan's Dawn and security analysts argue the targeted killings of Pakistani militant figures represent Indian extra-territorial operations that escalate the conflict under the ceasefire's cover. The UK House of Commons briefing provides the neutral baseline: technically intact truce, zero normalisation.

## By the numbers

- May 7, 2025, Operation Sindoor; May 10, 2025, ceasefire announced.
- 5, foiled cross-LoC infiltration attempts in J&K (January-May 2026).
- May 23, 2026, Operation Sheruwali launched in Rajouri's Manjakote sector, Pir Panjal.
- April 28, 2026, LeT commander Sheikh Yusuf Afridi killed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa; 30+ militant figure killings in Pakistan in early 2026.
- 6,000 km, planned Smart Border coverage along Pakistan and Bangladesh frontiers (Amit Shah, May 22).
- September 2024, first J&K assembly election since Article 370 abrogation; Omar Abdullah's NC government sworn in October 16, 2024.

## Why it matters

[India Pakistan](/ko/entity/india-pakistan) relations are at their lowest since the 1971 war: no civilian flights, no trade, Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance (see [인도, 인더스강 협약 중단 선언. 파키스탄 '물 전쟁' 경고](/ko/n/india-pakistan-indus-treaty-water-war)), no back-channel. The Jammu theater introduces a new risk calculus because forest-based militancy is harder to detect before it kills, and because JeM's re-emergence and ISI's political-infiltration strategy suggest [Pakistan](/ko/entity/country/pakistan)'s security services did not internalise the Sindoor deterrence signal. The 30-plus targeted killings inside Pakistan have no official acknowledgement from New Delhi, but they have re-introduced a pattern not seen since the Balakot era.

## What to watch

- Whether Operation Sheruwali results in militant kills or a prolonged stalemate that raises pressure on the CM to demand political solutions.
- Omar Abdullah's statehood demand: Delhi granting full statehood would be the biggest political concession since Article 370's restoration was demanded.
- Any return to the Valley by major militant organisations if the Jammu pressure succeeds.
- Whether the Smart Border project's AI-surveillance layer closes the Jammu loophole or merely pushes infiltrators to Bangladesh routes.

## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens)

### unlabelled
- **ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and Event Data)** (Global, en) — ACLED's 2026 J&K security report: documents the geographic shift in militant activity from Kashmir Valley to Jammu's Pir Panjal mountains and Chenab river valley belt; steep terrain favors militants and leaves security forces more vulnerable; elevated risk to Hindu, non-Kashmiri civilian groups from mass-fatality tactics; quantifies the insurgency's changed shape rather than its claimed end.
  Source: https://acleddata.com/report/jammu-and-kashmir-new-risks-security-forces-and-civilians-threaten-regional-peace
- **South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP)** (India, en) — Running 2026 J&K incident database: five foiled infiltration attempts across Machil, Krishna Ghati, Uri, Nowshera and Rajouri sectors (January-May 2026); Operation Sheruwali launched May 23 in Manjakote sector, Rajouri, the longest running counter-terrorism operation in the Jammu region in recent years.
  Source: https://www.satp.org/terrorist-activity/india-jammukashmir
- **Jaish-e-Mohammed re-emergence, ORF** (India, en) — 
  Source: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/jaish-e-mohammed-re-emerges-in-pakistan
- **Insights on India (Operation Sheruwali)** (India, en) — 
  Source: https://www.insightsonindia.com/2026/06/01/operation-sheruwali/
- **Carnegie Endowment (Operation Sindoor)** (United States, en) — 
  Source: https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2025/05/indian-airstrikes-in-pakistan-may-7-2025?lang=en
- **Open The Magazine (one year after)** (India, en) — 
  Source: https://openthemagazine.com/india/one-year-after-operation-sindoor-the-strike-that-changed-india-pakistan-dynamics

### security analysis / post-Sindoor review
- **The Diplomat** (United States, en) — One-year review: the ceasefire stopped the airstrikes but not the war in the forests of Pir Panjal; militant focus has relocated south as Pakistan's ISI adapts, exploring porous international borders and riverine routes in the Jammu sector; the 'normalcy' narrative in Srinagar does not map onto the active Rajouri-Poonch belt.
  > "The ceasefire stopped the airstrikes. It did not stop the war in the forests of Pir Panjal."
  Source: https://thediplomat.com/2026/05/a-year-after-operation-sindoor-rising-risks-and-deepening-instability/

### Indian strategic community
- **ORF (Observer Research Foundation)** (India, en) — Maps the shift in India's J&K doctrine post-Sindoor: treating cross-border terrorism as an act of war is now institutionalized; the Jammu theater tests that doctrine against terrain where drones and cameras are less decisive; JeM re-emergence documented alongside 30-plus targeted killings of Pakistan-based commanders in early 2026.
  > "Operation Sindoor established a new deterrence ceiling. Whether that ceiling holds will be tested in the Pir Panjal, not in Srinagar."
  Source: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/india-s-counterterrorism-doctrine-in-jammu-and-kashmir-post-operation-sindoor

### Indian mainstream / security
- **The Statesman** (India, en) — Reports the killing of Sheikh Yusuf Afridi, a senior LeT regional commander and close aide to Hafiz Saeed, by unidentified gunmen in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on April 28; part of a pattern of 30-plus targeted killings of Pakistani militant figures in early 2026 that Pakistan attributes to Indian intelligence.
  > "Sheikh Yusuf Afridi, a senior LeT commander and recruitment coordinator, was shot dead in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa; at least 30 militant figures have died in similar circumstances in 2026."
  Source: https://www.thestatesman.com/world/sheikh-yusuf-afridi-lashkar-e-taiba-commander-killed-pakistan-khyper-pakhtunkhwa-targeted-assassination-unidentified-gunmen-hafiz-saeed-leader-1503586647.html

### Western parliamentary research
- **House of Commons Library** (United Kingdom, en) — UK parliamentary briefing on India-Pakistan tensions: balanced, independent assessment confirming the May 2025 ceasefire holds but no normalisation, trade, flights or diplomatic restoration has followed; notes both capitals accused each other of violations within 24 hours of the truce; covers ISI's new political-infiltration strategy as a distinct threat vector.
  > "Despite the May 2025 ceasefire holding broadly, neither India nor Pakistan has taken steps to restore trade, flights or high-level diplomatic contact."
  Source: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10264/

### Indian mainstream / home ministry
- **India TV News** (India, en) — Amit Shah's May 22 announcement of the Smart Border project: AI-enabled cameras, radars, drones and sensors along 6,000 km of Pakistan and Bangladesh frontiers; aimed at closing the Jammu region's permeable border that traditional surveillance has not adequately covered.
  > "Smart Border will use AI-enabled cameras, real-time monitoring and drone detection along 6,000 km of Pakistan and Bangladesh borders, Shah announced."
  Source: https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/india-to-launch-smart-border-project-along-pakistan-bangladesh-frontiers-to-curb-infiltration-says-amit-shah-2026-05-22-1042065

## Across the graph
- Related: [[india-pakistan-indus-treaty-water-war]], [[siachen-saltoro-highest-battlefield]], [[india-pakistan-isolation-backfire]], [[india-china-border-thaw-shaksgam]]
- Entities: India Pakistan, India, Country:pakistan, Person:narendra Modi

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