# EU banned Murmansk port transactions but Russian nickel still reaches Western markets; Nornickel's Q1 output fell sharply and it accelerated China copper JV talks
> The EU's 20th sanctions package closed one export channel but Global Witness found gaps; Q1 2026 palladium output fell 10-11%; Nornickel is negotiating a 2Mt/year copper concentrate JV with Xiamen C&D

**Meta:** type: story · date: 2026-04-28 · heads: 그들이 말하지 않는 것, 누구의 돈인가 · 7 takes · 5 lenses · 5 regions

## Summary

The EU's 20th sanctions package, adopted in 2026, banned transactions involving Murmansk port, one of Nornickel's primary export terminals for refined nickel, [Palladium](/ko/entity/palladium), and [Platinum](/ko/entity/platinum). However, a May 2026 Global Witness investigation documented that Russian-mined [Nickel](/ko/entity/nickel) continues to reach Western markets through third-country intermediaries and through Nornickel's Harjavalta refinery in Finland, a structure that predates the Ukraine war and has not been directly sanctioned. Nornickel's Q1 2026 production report, released April 28, showed sharp declines across all metals. Full-year palladium guidance was revised down 10-11% versus 2025, attributed to ore grade deterioration at the Oktyabrskoye and Taimyrsky mines combined with the forced replacement of Western mining equipment with Chinese and Russian alternatives after suppliers withdrew under earlier sanctions. To compensate for Western market access constraints, Nornickel accelerated negotiations with Xiamen C&D on a joint venture to process approximately 2 million tonnes per year of copper concentrate from the Zapolyarny division in China, targeted for mid-2027 commissioning, synchronised with phasing out Nornickel's existing Russian copper smelter. In parallel, Nornickel identified fibreglass production in China as a potential new palladium demand source following 300-day industrial trials.

## The split

Western government sanctions analysts frame the Murmansk ban as a necessary channel closure even if imperfect; Global Witness and the investigative accountability community argue the gaps are structural and the Harjavalta refinery issue requires either secondary sanctions on Finnish imports or a direct ban on refined Russian nickel. Nornickel's Russian management framing, visible through TASS, emphasises the China pivot as a deliberate commercial realignment rather than a sanctions response: the Xiamen C&D JV is presented as value-optimisation. Independent Russian reporting (Moscow Times, Meduza) notes the equipment replacement programme is degrading operational performance and that the 10-11% palladium decline signals long-term output risk that cannot be reversed without Western technology now denied by sanctions. For the palladium market, Nornickel's structural output decline compounds the secular demand loss from EV penetration: falling supply and falling demand are coinciding, but with different vectors, making price forecasting unusually uncertain.

## By the numbers

- 10-11%, Nornickel's 2026 palladium output decline versus 2025.
- 193,000-203,000 tonnes, full-year 2026 nickel guidance (flat year-on-year).
- 2 million tonnes/year, copper concentrate capacity targeted for the Xiamen C&D JV.
- Mid-2027, targeted commissioning date for the China copper JV.
- 0.8 million oz, potential additional palladium demand from Chinese fibreglass sector.
- 2 million oz, estimated total global glass-sector palladium demand if fully adopted.
- ~30%, South Africa's share of global palladium production (only significant ex-Russian source).

## Why it matters

[Nornickel](/ko/entity/nornickel) produces approximately 40% of global [Palladium](/ko/entity/palladium) and 10-15% of global [Platinum](/ko/entity/platinum), making its output trajectory directly significant for [PGM markets](/ko/n/pgm-platinum-surge-2026) already stressed by South African power disruptions. A 10-11% palladium decline compounds the secular demand loss from EV adoption but also tightens near-term supply for catalytic converter manufacturers still dependent on gasoline autocatalysts. The Harjavalta refinery sanctions gap illustrates a broader structural problem: sanctioning Russian metals production without also sanctioning downstream processing in EU member states creates persistent arbitrage routes that undermine the intended supply-chain security. The China copper JV signals that Russia's major non-ferrous producers are systematically repositioning processing capacity in China, deepening Sino-Russian industrial integration that will outlast the current geopolitical moment.

## What to watch

- Harjavalta refinery: whether the EU closes the Finnish-processing sanctions gap in a subsequent package.
- Nornickel palladium output: whether equipment replacement successfully stabilises throughput or decline continues beyond 10-11%.
- Xiamen C&D JV: whether definitive agreement, permitting, and construction proceed to mid-2027 commissioning.
- Fibreglass palladium demand: whether Chinese industrial trials convert to contracted offtake at scale, providing a partial offset to autocatalyst demand erosion.

## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens)

### unlabelled
- **Nornickel Q1 2026 production report** (Russia, en) — Primary Q1 2026 production data: sharp drops across nickel, palladium, and platinum, attributed to ore reserve depletion and the replacement of Western mining equipment with non-Western alternatives following sanctions. Full-year nickel guidance: 193,000-203,000 tonnes (broadly flat year-on-year). Palladium down 10-11% for the full year.
  Source: https://www.nornickel.com/investors/production-results/2026/q1-2026/
- **TASS** (Russia, ru) — 
  Source: https://tass.ru/ekonomika/nornickel-2026-q1-2026
- **Meduza** (Latvia / Russia, ru) — 
  Source: https://meduza.io/news/nornickel-sanctions-2026

### independent Russian reporting (Netherlands-based)
- **The Moscow Times** (Russia / Netherlands, en) — Reports Nornickel's Q1 2026 sharp drop in metal output; attributes nickel and PGM declines to a combination of Oktyabrskoye and Taimyrsky ore grade deterioration and the transition to Chinese and domestic mining equipment after Western suppliers withdrew. Notes management guidance that full-year palladium is expected down 10-11% versus 2025.
  > "Nornickel's Q1 output dropped sharply across all metals; the company attributes the decline to ore depletion and forced equipment replacement after Western suppliers withdrew."
  Source: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/04/28/russias-nornickel-reports-sharp-first-quarter-drop-in-metal-output-a92628

### investigative accountability
- **Global Witness** (United Kingdom, en) — Investigative report documenting that despite the EU's 20th sanctions package banning transactions involving Murmansk port, Russian-mined nickel continues to reach Western markets through third-country intermediaries, processing in Finland (Norilsk Nickel subsidiary Harjavalta), and jurisdictional gaps in the sanctions architecture. US palladium substitution efforts have not identified commercially viable alternatives at scale.
  > "Despite the EU's Murmansk port ban, Russian nickel still flows to Western markets through third-country intermediaries; the sanctions gap is structural, not an enforcement failure."
  Source: https://globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/transition-minerals/sanctions-gap-lets-russian-mined-nickel-flow-to-western-markets/

### mining trade
- **Mining.com** (Canada, en) — Reports that Nornickel is in active talks to form a joint venture with Xiamen C&D to process approximately 2 million tonnes per year of copper concentrate from Nornickel's Zapolyarny division at a facility in China, targeted for mid-2027 commissioning. The JV is synchronized with phasing out Nornickel's existing copper smelter in Russia, a significant capacity restructuring.
  > "Nornickel is negotiating a China JV with Xiamen C&D to process 2 million tonnes per year of copper concentrate, accelerating its pivot to Asian markets as Western access contracts."
  Source: https://www.mining.com/web/nornickel-says-it-is-in-active-talks-on-china-jv/

### precious metals markets
- **Kitco** (Canada, en) — Nornickel identified fibreglass production as a new palladium demand source following 300-day industrial trials with Chinese partners. Medium-term fibreglass sector palladium demand could reach 0.8 million oz; total glass sector globally 2 million oz. The discovery is significant because palladium faces secular demand decline from EV penetration reducing gasoline catalytic-converter use.
  > "Nornickel identified fibreglass manufacturing as a new palladium demand source in China, potentially adding 0.8 million oz to a market losing autocatalyst volumes to EVs."
  Source: https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2026-03-23/nornickel-sees-new-palladium-demand-chinas-fibreglass-sector/

## Across the graph
- Related: [[pgm-platinum-surge-2026]], [[aluminium-china-cap-rusal-2026]], [[rusal-aughinish-eu-2026]]
- Entities: Nornickel, Nickel, Palladium, Platinum

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Canonical: https://rbtfl.xyz/ko/n/nornickel-murmansk-china-2026