# Warsh at ECB Forum Sintra: Fed will end forward guidance, inflation still too high > US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said at the ECB's annual Sintra forum that the Fed intends to abandon traditional forward guidance and that inflation remains too high; he declined to signal the July rate decision **Meta:** type: event · date: 2026-07-01 · heads: 누구의 돈인가, 그들이 말하지 않는 것 · 11 takes · 3 lenses · 9 regions ## Summary US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh participated in the ECB Forum on Central Banking panel in Sintra, Portugal on July 1, alongside ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem. Warsh said the Fed would move away from traditional forward guidance, meaning the bank will explain its decision-making framework rather than pre-committing to future rate moves. He described inflation as "too high" and declined to indicate whether the July 23 FOMC meeting would result in a rate hold or a hike. The Fed has held the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% for four consecutive meetings since the June 17 session that first showed the dot-plot tilt toward a hike. The Sintra panel was Warsh's first major international central banking appearance since taking the chair. ## The split US financial media read Warsh's Sintra remarks as the first concrete public signal that the communications task force announced at his June meeting would produce a formal abandonment of forward guidance, placing the Fed in alignment with the [ECB's own pivot](/ko/n/sintra-lagarde-framework-jun29) away from rate-path commitments announced by Lagarde three days earlier. European central banking observers noted the rare public alignment of the Fed, ECB, Bank of England and Bank of Canada on the forward-guidance question at the same forum, which analysts described as a coordinated institutional retreat from a mode that damaged credibility during post-pandemic inflation. Markets interpreted Warsh's refusal to signal July as maintaining a hike option; short-dated Treasury yields rose modestly on the session. ## By the numbers - 3.50-3.75%, current Fed funds target rate (unchanged since June 17) - 4, consecutive meetings at which the Fed has held rates - July 23, date of next FOMC meeting where a hike remains possible - 3, task forces Warsh announced at his June meeting: communications, operations, balance-sheet review - 3.25%, ECB deposit facility rate after the June 11 hike (25 basis points above the prior level) ## Why it matters Warsh's Sintra remarks signal that the Fed's next major institutional reform, the shift away from forward guidance, will precede the task-force formal recommendations. That matters for global bond markets because forward guidance has been the mechanism by which the Fed has managed market expectations since the 2008 crisis; removing it without a clear replacement framework increases near-term volatility in rate bets. The alignment with the ECB's simultaneous "framework guidance" pivot suggests a coordinated G4 central-bank retreat from pre-commitment, which will increase rate-path uncertainty for emerging-market borrowers and dollar-denominated sovereign debt. The July decision is now genuinely open. ## What to watch - July 23 FOMC meeting: hold or hike, and the statement language on forward guidance. - Warsh's first personal dot-plot submission at the September meeting. - The communications task-force report and the formal framework that replaces forward guidance. - Whether Bailey and Macklem move in parallel at their own July rate decisions. ## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens) ### US financial television - **CNBC** (United States, en) — CNBC reporter Sara Eisen moderated the panel featuring Warsh, Lagarde, Andrew Bailey (Bank of England) and Tiff Macklem (Bank of Canada); reported Warsh's clearest public signal yet that the Fed under his leadership would move away from providing explicit forward guidance on the rate path, saying markets should expect the bank to explain its reaction function rather than its intentions; Warsh confirmed inflation remained 'too high' and declined to indicate whether the July 23 FOMC meeting would result in a hold or a hike. > "Warsh at Sintra: 'We're going to tell you how we think, not what we're going to do', signalling the end of the Fed's forward-guidance era." Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/01/warsh-sintra-fed-forward-guidance-inflation.html ### unlabelled - **ECB Forum on Central Banking (official programme)** (European Union, en) — Official ECB Forum programme confirms the July 1 policy panel 'Monetary Policy in a Changing World' with Kevin Warsh, Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey and Tiff Macklem, moderated by CNBC's Sara Eisen. Source: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/conferences/html/20260629_ecbforum.en.html - **Financial Times** (United Kingdom, en) — Source: https://www.ft.com/content/warsh-sintra-jul1-2026 - **Reuters** (Global, en) — Source: https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/warsh-sintra-forward-guidance-2026-07-01/ - **Wall Street Journal** (United States, en) — Source: https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/warsh-sintra-2026 - **Bloomberg** (Global, en) — Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-01/warsh-sintra-panel - **Handelsblatt** (Germany, de) — Source: https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/warsh-sintra-2026/ - **Les Echos** (France, fr) — Source: https://www.lesechos.fr/economie-france/banque-assurance/warsh-sintra-2026.html - **Nikkei Asia** (Japan, en) — Source: https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Central-Banks/warsh-sintra-2026 - **Caixin Global** (China, en) — Source: https://www.caixinglobal.com/2026-07-01/warsh-sintra-fed ### international financial wire - **Eastern Herald** (International, en) — Quoted Warsh's remarks on the Fed's institutional review processes announced at his first June meeting: the task forces on communications, operations, and balance-sheet management are expected to report recommendations by Q4 2026, and the Sintra remarks on forward guidance indicated a directional shift that would precede those formal recommendations. > "Warsh confirmed the Fed's communications review task force is working toward a formal framework shift away from forward guidance." Source: https://www.easternherald.com/2026/07/01/warsh-sintra-fed-guidance/ ## Across the graph - Related: [[warsh-fed-june2026]], [[sintra-lagarde-framework-jun29]], [[ecb-rate-hike-jun11]] - Entities: Org:federal Reserve, Org:ecb, Kevin Warsh, Christine Lagarde --- Canonical: https://rbtfl.xyz/ko/n/warsh-sintra-jul1