# ECB raises rates on the Iran-driven energy shock, first hike since 2023
> The deposit rate goes to 2.25% as war-driven oil prices push 2026 inflation projections to 3.0% amid stalling growth

**Meta:** type: story · date: 2026-06-11 · heads: O que quebrou, Quem decide · 4 takes · 4 lenses · 4 regions

## Summary

On 11 June 2026 the [Ecb](/pt/entity/ecb) raised its three key rates by 25 basis points — deposit
facility to 2.25%, main refinancing to 2.40%, marginal lending to 2.65% — its first
increase since 2023. The move responded to the [largest oil supply disruption on record](/pt/n/hormuz-oil-supply-shock)'s effect on
oil prices, which lifted the 2026 headline-inflation baseline to 3.0%. Eurosystem staff
cut 2026-27 growth forecasts, citing the war's effect on commodities, real incomes and
confidence. President Lagarde stressed the hike was a response to the energy shock, not a
committed path, and defended price stability despite weak growth. European equities fell
modestly.

## Why it matters

Raising rates into a stagnating economy signals "higher for longer" and confronts the
eurozone with 1970s-style stagflation risk — the clearest sign the Gulf war has reached
ordinary [Eurozone](/pt/entity/eurozone) borrowing costs.

## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens)

### official / primary
- **European Central Bank** (Eurozone, en) — Official decision raising the three key rates by 25bp and revising up the inflation baseline on a higher energy-price path.
  > "The Governing Council decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points."
  Source: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260611~4d41bd5e83.en.html

### national central bank
- **Banco de España** (Spain, en) — Spanish central-bank confirmation of the hike, situating it in a bloc where Spain is the strongest-growing major economy.
  > "ECB raises rates by 25 basis points in June."
  Source: https://www.bde.es/wbe/en/noticias-eventos/actualidad-bce/decisiones-politica-monetaria/bce-tipos-junio26.html

### Arabic regional
- **El-Balad** (Egypt, ar) — Arabic-language coverage of the hike viewed from a MENA readership exposed to the same energy shock.
  > "ECB raises rates 25 basis points to 2.25%, 2.40% and 2.65%."
  Source: https://www.el-balad.com/17018926

### pan-European / skeptical
- **Euronews** (Europe, en) — Pre-decision analysis flagging stubborn inflation in the largest economies and questioning hiking into weak growth.
  > "ECB rate hike in focus as the eurozone's 'Big Four' report stubbornly high inflation."
  Source: https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/05/29/ecb-rate-hike-in-focus-as-eurozones-big-four-report-stubbornly-high-inflation

## Across the graph
- Related: [[hormuz-oil-supply-shock]]
- Entities: Ecb, Eurozone, Oil, United States

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Canonical: https://rbtfl.xyz/pt/n/ecb-rate-hike-energy-shock