# NOAA declares El Niño; cocoa and tropical crops price in a possible 'super' event
> An official June advisory, with a 63% chance of a very strong event, pushes traders to front-run dry-season risk in West Africa and Southeast Asia

**Meta:** type: story · date: 2026-06-11 · heads: A mudança silenciosa, Dinheiro de quem · 4 takes · 4 lenses · 3 regions

## Summary

On 11 June 2026 NOAA issued an El Niño Advisory, putting odds of conditions at ~82% for
May-July and a 63% chance of a very strong event during November-January, which would rank
among the largest since 1950. Markets reacted first in cocoa: New York futures touched a
3.5-month high near $4,709/tonne in May. El Niño typically warms and dries [West Africa](/pt/entity/west-africa)
(cocoa) and Southeast Asia (robusta coffee, palm), while threatening maize in southern
Africa. Analysts caution that effects depend on intensity, and that ample prior-season
stocks and Brazil's record coffee crop could blunt some impacts.

## Why it matters

A strong El Niño would cut maize, cocoa, robusta-coffee and sugar output across the
tropics, lifting global [Food Prices](/pt/entity/food-prices) for billions through 2027 — months before any
crop actually fails.

## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens)

### agronomic / markets
- **Wikifarmer** (Global, en) — Reports NOAA's 11 June advisory and the 63% odds of a very strong event, linking it to early cocoa-price moves; West African dryness is the key supply risk.
  > "NOAA declared an El Niño Advisory and put the odds of a very strong event at 63%."
  Source: https://wikifarmer.com/library/en/article/el-nino-advisory-june-2026-cocoa-commodities

### commodity trading
- **Barchart** (United States, en) — Documents cocoa futures rallying on El Niño risk to Ivory Coast and Ghana, emphasising speculative positioning ahead of confirmed damage.
  > "West Africa tends to dry and warm during El Niño — the risk cocoa traders watch."
  Source: https://www.barchart.com/story/news/2497979/cocoa-prices-soar-on-el-nino-weather-risks

### skeptical / agri-economist
- **Wandile Sihlobo** (South Africa, en) — Argues the impact lands mainly on the 2026-27 summer crop, not immediately, and notes ample maize stocks and good soil moisture; counters alarmist framing.
  > "Ample maize supplies and slightly better soil moisture after two good seasons."
  Source: https://wandile.substack.com/p/a-possible-el-nino-in-the-2026-27

### regional weather
- **Daily Maverick** (South Africa, en) — Tracks the developing El Niño and forecasts of a dry winter for southwestern South Africa, framing it as a regional agricultural threat still firming up.
  > "El Niño may emerge soon, with a dry winter seen for southwest South Africa."
  Source: https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2026-05-04-weather-watch-el-nino-may-emerge-soon-with-dry-winter-seen-for-southwest-sa/

## Across the graph
- Related: [[fao-food-prices]]
- Entities: El Nino, West Africa, Cocoa, Food Prices

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Canonical: https://rbtfl.xyz/pt/n/el-nino-2026-advisory