# US gas stays cheap as Permian supply outruns record LNG pull
> EIA nudges its 2026 Henry Hub forecast up to $3.60 even as associated-gas growth keeps prices flat against all-time LNG feedgas demand

**Meta:** type: story · date: 2026-06-24 · heads: A mudança silenciosa, Dinheiro de quem · 11 takes · 1 lenses · 2 regions

## Summary

[US](/pt/entity/united-states) gas stayed structurally cheap through June 2026 even as [LNG](/pt/entity/us-lng) feedgas
demand ran near record highs, the EIA raised its 2026 [Henry Hub](/pt/entity/henry-hub) forecast to
$3.60/MMBtu (from $3.50) yet trimmed 2027 to $3.46, because higher crude prices are pulling out
ever more associated gas in the Permian. Marketed production is set to grow 3.3% (~3.9 Bcf/d) in
2026. LNG feedgas hit an all-time 19.7 Bcf/d in March, eased on maintenance, then recovered to
18.8 Bcf/d in mid-June as [Golden Pass](/pt/n/golden-pass-first-cargo-2026), Freeport and Corpus Christi
ramped. Storage built +73 Bcf to 2.759 Tcf for the week ended 12 June, ~5.8% above the five-year
average. The result: the US exports record volumes into a tight world while paying a fraction of
[TTF](/pt/n/ttf-summer-storage-shortfall) or [JKM](/pt/n/jkm-asia-lng-summer-2026).

## By the numbers

- $3.60/MMBtu, EIA's 2026 Henry Hub forecast (up $0.10 from May); $3.46 for 2027.
- +3.3% / ~3.9 Bcf/d, projected 2026 US marketed-production growth.
- 19.7 Bcf/d, record LNG feedgas (March 2026); 18.8 Bcf/d in mid-June.
- +73 Bcf, storage build, week ended 12 June; stocks 2.759 Tcf.
- ~5.8%, how far stocks sit above the five-year average.

## Why it matters

The widest US-to-world gas-price gap on record is the engine of the LNG export build-out: cheap
Henry Hub feedstock plus expensive TTF/JKM is the arbitrage funding Golden Pass and the next wave.
As long as Permian associated gas keeps growing, US prices stay capped even with record exports.

## What to watch

- Whether Q4 power and LNG demand lifts Henry Hub toward the EIA's $3.47 winter call.
- Permian associated-gas growth, the cap on prices and the floor under exports.
- Feedgas recovery to fresh records as new trains commission.

## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens)

### unlabelled
- **US Energy Information Administration (June STEO)** (United States, en) — The EIA's June Short-Term Energy Outlook, the primary forecast raising the 2026 Henry Hub average to $3.60/MMBtu while projecting marketed production up 3.3% (~3.9 Bcf/d), driven by Permian associated gas as crude prices rose.
  Source: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/natgas.php
- **US EIA, Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report** (United States, en) — The official weekly storage series, the +73 Bcf build for the week ended 12 June lifting stocks to 2.759 Tcf, ~1% under last year but ~5.8% above the five-year average.
  Source: https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/storage/
- **Rigzone** (United States, en) — Trade outlet detailing the EIA's upward 2026 revision and its logic: higher crude pulls out more associated gas, which the agency expects to cap 2027 prices, the supply-glut lens that explains why record LNG exports have not lifted US prices.
  > "EIA sees Henry Hub averaging $3.60/MMBtu in 2026 and $3.46 in 2027 as Permian associated gas grows."
  Source: https://www.rigzone.com/news/usa_eia_raises_2026_2027_henry_hub_price_forecasts-16-jun-2026-183897-article/
- **Natural Gas Intelligence** (United States, en) — NGI reads the same STEO as bullish into winter, stressing the back-half price rise toward $3.47 in Q4, the demand-pull counter to the glut framing, with LNG feedgas the swing variable.
  > "EIA sees Henry Hub strengthening substantially into winter as power and LNG demand build."
  Source: https://naturalgasintel.com/news/eia-sees-henry-hub-natural-gas-prices-strengthening-substantially-amid-winters-bullish-grip/
- **American Gas Association** (United States, en) — 
  Source: https://www.aga.org/research-policy/resource-library/natural-gas-market-indicators-june-11-2026/
- **S&P Global** (Global, en) — 
  Source: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/electric-power/040726-us-eia-trims-2026-us-spot-gas-price-forecasts-on-near-average-storage-expectation
- **EIA Today in Energy** (United States, en) — 
  Source: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66384
- **FRED (St. Louis Fed)** (United States, en) — 
  Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DHHNGSP
- **Energy Edge Consulting** (United States, en) — 
  Source: https://energyedge.com/natural-gas-weekly-storage-report-6-11-2026/
- **Trading Economics** (Global, en) — 
  Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
- **MacroMicro** (Global, en) — 
  Source: https://en.macromicro.me/collections/4854/mm-natural-gas/123944/nymex-henry-hub-natural-gas-price-eia-forecast

## Across the graph
- Related: [[golden-pass-first-cargo-2026]], [[ttf-summer-storage-shortfall]], [[jkm-asia-lng-summer-2026]]
- Entities: Henry Hub, US Lng, United States

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Canonical: https://rbtfl.xyz/pt/n/henry-hub-2026-supply-glut