Sheinbaum's security cabinet reports homicides down 46% — as disappearances climb
Daily killings at a 12-year low under Harfuch's strategy, but the rising missing-persons count undercuts the headline
Summary
Claudia Sheinbaum's security cabinet, led by Secretary Omar Garcia Harfuch, reported on 16 June 2026 that intentional homicides have fallen 46% since September 2024 — a daily average down from 86.9 to 47.3, the lowest in twelve years. The strategy logged 56,000+ high-impact arrests, about 420 tons of drugs and 2,407 clandestine labs dismantled since October 2024, with eight states accounting for 54% of killings. Critics, led by Animal Político, counter that disappearances keep rising — roughly 11,000 a year against a registry near 133,000 — arguing the homicide metric masks violence rather than ending it. The data underpins Mexico's rebuttal to US claims the cartels run the country.
By the numbers
- 46% — drop in intentional homicides since September 2024.
- 86.9 → 47.3 — daily homicide average (12-year low).
- 56,000+ — high-impact arrests since October 2024.
- ~133,000 — registered missing persons (still rising).
Why it matters
Security is Sheinbaum's most-watched domestic metric and her shield against US pressure. A genuine homicide decline strengthens her hand at home and abroad; the climbing disappearance count is the counter-evidence that lets critics argue the violence has shifted form, not subsided.
What to watch
- Whether the homicide trend holds and disappearances stabilise.
- Independent verification against INEGI and civil-society registries.
- How the figures feature in US-Mexico security disputes.