# Gallium hit $2,269/kg and germanium $6,150/kg in the West as China's export controls created a permanent East-West price split
> China's domestic gallium price is $246/kg; the Western spot price is nine times higher. Germanium's equivalent gap is 130%. A US-China trade truce suspended the US-specific ban until November 2026 but left the licensing regime intact

**Meta:** type: story · date: 2026-06-01 · heads: 悄然的转变, 谁的钱 · 7 takes · 4 lenses · 4 regions

## Summary

China controls 98% of primary [Gallium](/zh/entity/gallium) production and approximately 60% of primary [Germanium](/zh/entity/germanium) output. After imposing export licensing controls on both metals in August 2023, China progressively tightened the regime: a November 2025 US-China trade truce suspended the US-specific outright export ban until November 27, 2026, but left the global licensing system intact. The practical result, documented by CSIS analysis in June 2026, is that meaningful Chinese gallium shipments to the US have not resumed. Western spot gallium reached $1,850/kg in April 2026 and approximately $2,269/kg by June, against a Chinese domestic price of $246/kg, a nine-fold spread. For germanium, Western in-warehouse spot reached $6,150/kg versus China's domestic $2,674/kg, a 130% premium. Australia committed $200 million to Alcoa's Wagerup gallium recovery unit in Western Australia in 2025; MTM Critical Metals is targeting a Texas facility for 2026. Neither project reaches commercial scale before mid-2027. Gallium is used in gallium arsenide radar systems, gallium nitride power electronics, and 5G RF components; germanium is essential for optical fibres, infrared optics, and solar cells.

## The split

Western defence and semiconductor analysis frames the price split as a national security problem: the US has no primary gallium production and no strategic reserve, making every high-power radar and advanced semiconductor dependent on Chinese supply. China presents its licensing regime as legitimate export management under WTO-compatible measures, not weaponisation. Japanese buyers, who source gallium for compound semiconductor manufacturing, have built 6-9 months of strategic inventory but describe sustained Western production as the only real solution. Australian and American projects (Alcoa Wagerup, MTM Texas) are on track for 2027 but will supply a small fraction of Western demand at full capacity. The November 2026 deadline for China's trade-truce suspension resets the control architecture either to the US-specific ban or to an extended truce, depending on bilateral negotiations.

## By the numbers

- $2,269/kg, approximate Western gallium spot price, June 2026 (pre-controls: ~$220/kg).
- $246/kg, China domestic gallium price, June 2026 (9x gap vs. Western price).
- $6,150/kg, Western in-warehouse germanium spot, June 2026.
- $2,674/kg, China domestic germanium price, June 2026 (130% premium gap).
- 98%, China's share of global primary gallium production.
- ~60%, China's share of primary germanium production (Yunnan, Inner Mongolia).
- $200 million, Australian government commitment to Alcoa's Wagerup gallium recovery unit.
- November 27, 2026, expiry of China's trade-truce suspension of the US-specific export ban.

## Why it matters

[Gallium](/zh/entity/gallium) and [germanium](/zh/entity/germanium) are not traded on futures exchanges and have no significant strategic stockpiles outside China. The permanent East-West price bifurcation, now three-plus years in the making, is restructuring supply chains for compound semiconductors, infrared optics, and fibre-optic components in ways that are largely invisible to broader commodity markets. Defence buyers, who use gallium nitride in AESA radar and electronic warfare systems, are most exposed: they cannot substitute, scale domestic production quickly, or absorb a nine-fold cost increase. The November 2026 truce expiry is a hard decision point: if China reinstates the US-specific ban, Western defence electronics face an acute shortage; if the truce extends, it does so from a position of demonstrated Chinese leverage rather than genuine market normalisation.

## What to watch

- November 27, 2026, whether China reinstates or extends the trade-truce suspension of the US-specific gallium-germanium ban.
- Alcoa Wagerup and MTM Texas: commissioning milestones and actual recovery volumes versus nameplate.
- US DoD and DoE response: whether a gallium strategic reserve or production subsidy is authorised in the defence authorisation process.
- Western in-warehouse spot price trajectory: whether the gallium-germanium premium stabilises, widens further, or compresses on new supply entry.

## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens)

### unlabelled
- **USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026** (United States, en) — USGS 2026 primary data: China produces 98% of global gallium; global production approximately 550 tonnes/year; US has no primary production. Gallium is essential for gallium arsenide and gallium nitride semiconductors used in radar, satellite communications, power electronics, and 5G. No strategic reserve exists.
  Source: https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-gallium.pdf
- **Skillings.net** (Global, en) — 
  Source: https://skillings.net/gallium-germanium-12-months-after-export-controls-where-is-the-supply/
- **Oregon Group** (Canada, en) — 
  Source: https://theoregongroup.com/commodities/gallium-germanium/china-lifts-export-ban-gallium-germanium-antimony/
- **Clark Hill** (United States, en) — 
  Source: https://www.clarkhill.com/news-events/news/china-hits-pause-on-rare-earth-export-controls-and-what-it-means-for-supply-chains/

### US strategic policy
- **CSIS** (United States, en) — CSIS analysis documenting that despite the November 2025 US-China trade truce nominally suspending the US-specific gallium export ban until November 27, 2026, meaningful Chinese gallium exports to the US have not resumed due to the global licensing regime. Western spot prices reached $1,850/kg in April 2026 before climbing further; the China-West price spread is effectively permanent under the current control architecture.
  > "Despite the US-China trade truce, gallium exports from China have not resumed at meaningful volumes; the Western price gap is effectively permanent while controls remain."
  Source: https://www.csis.org/analysis/us-china-trade-truce-has-not-solved-gallium-problem

### commodity pricing
- **Fastmarkets** (Global, en) — Reports the November 2025 MOFCOM suspension of the US-specific export ban on gallium, germanium, and antimony until November 27, 2026, as part of US-China trade talks. Notes the global licensing regime remains unchanged, creating long lead times and unpredictable spot availability; Western buyers describe the truce as operationally meaningless for procurement planning.
  > "China's trade-truce suspension of the US gallium ban is operationally meaningless: global licensing delays mean reliable Western supply has not returned."
  Source: https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/china-suspends-export-prohibition-on-superhard-materials-us/

### Asian commodity markets
- **Harian Basis** (Indonesia, en) — Tracks gallium prices reaching approximately $2,269/kg in June 2026, up from pre-control levels of approximately $220-260/kg in mid-2023; notes China's domestic price of approximately $246/kg, a nine-to-one bifurcation. Germanium Western spot reached $6,150/kg versus China's domestic $2,674/kg, a 130% premium.
  > "Gallium at $2,269/kg in the West versus $246/kg inside China, a nine-fold gap that has widened since November 2025."
  Source: https://www.harianbasis.co/en/gallium-prices-surge-china-export-controls

## Across the graph
- Related: [[china-rare-earth-controls]], [[us-minerals-price-floor-allies]], [[carney-g7-critical-minerals]]
- Entities: Gallium, Germanium

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Canonical: https://rbtfl.xyz/zh/n/gallium-germanium-bifurcation-2026