# NOAA forecasts below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season as developing El Niño suppresses storm formation > The May 21 outlook gives a 55% chance of a below-normal season with 8-14 named storms and 3-6 hurricanes; Tropical Storm Arthur, the first named system, made landfall near Galveston in June with US$100m in damages **Meta:** type: story · date: 2026-05-21 · heads: 悄然的转变 · 10 takes · 4 lenses · 2 regions ## Summary NOAA announced on May 21, 2026 that the Atlantic hurricane season was forecast to be below normal, giving a 55% probability of fewer storms than average, 35% near-normal, and 10% above-normal. The outlook projects 8-14 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, and 1-3 major hurricanes. The primary driver is a developing El Niño event expected to strengthen through summer and autumn, which raises vertical wind shear over the Atlantic and disrupts the organised convection that allows tropical cyclones to form and intensify. The season opened with Tropical Storm Arthur, the first named system, which formed in the Gulf of Mexico on June 17, made landfall near Galveston, Texas as a minimal storm with 40-knot winds, and then produced extreme rainfall across Louisiana, setting a preliminary state record of 29.06 inches in under 12 hours near Cottonport. Aon estimated damages above US$100 million and at least four people were killed. ## The split US meteorological media treated the NOAA forecast as a clear El Niño signal and stressed the below-normal implication for Gulf of Mexico and East Coast states. University-based seasonal forecasters, particularly Colorado State University, were cautiously aligned with NOAA. The University of Arizona's outlier forecast of 20 named storms attracted attention precisely because it diverged so sharply. Caribbean and Central American media gave the forecast lighter treatment, noting that their exposure depends not on seasonal totals but on track geography, an El Niño season can still send one major hurricane directly at Belize or Haiti. ## By the numbers - 55%, NOAA probability of a below-normal 2026 season - 8-14, named storms forecast by NOAA - 3-6, hurricanes in NOAA's 2026 range - 1-3, major (Category 3+) hurricanes forecast - 40 knots, Tropical Storm Arthur's peak intensity at Galveston landfall - 29.06 inches, preliminary Louisiana state rainfall record (24h) set by Arthur's remnants near Cottonport - US$100m+, estimated damage from Tropical Storm Arthur (Aon) - 4, confirmed deaths from Tropical Storm Arthur ## Why it matters El Niño's suppressive effect on Atlantic hurricane activity is one of the more robust seasonal forecast relationships in tropical meteorology, but it operates probabilistically, not deterministically. Below-normal seasons have still produced catastrophic storms (Hurricane Andrew in 1992, for example, occurred in a below-normal year). The United States Gulf Coast and Caribbean island economies remain structurally exposed regardless of seasonal totals, and US$100 million in damage from the season's first minimal storm illustrates how the interaction between storm intensity and vulnerable coastal infrastructure matters more than the named-storm count. ## What to watch - Whether El Niño strengthens as forecast through the peak August-October season window. - Any system that organises in the Main Development Region between West Africa and the Caribbean, which is the origin area for the most intense Atlantic hurricanes. - Whether the below-normal total is revised by NOAA at its August mid-season update. - Louisiana and Texas recovery from Arthur's flooding as the season continues. ## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens) ### unlabelled - **NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)** (United States, en) — NOAA's May 21, 2026 outlook gives a 55% probability of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season and 35% chance of near-normal, with 8-14 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, and 1-3 major hurricanes forecast. NOAA's principal physical driver cited is the development of El Niño conditions through the summer and autumn, which increases vertical wind shear over the Atlantic and inhibits storm intensification. Source: https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-below-normal-2026-atlantic-hurricane-season - **CSU Tropical Weather (Colorado State University)** (United States, en) — Source: https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html - **Climate Prediction Center (NOAA)** (United States, en) — Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane2026/May/hurricane.shtml - **Climate Central** (United States, en) — Source: https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/hurricane-season - **EarthSky** (United States, en) — Source: https://earthsky.org/earth/atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast-for-2026/ - **Team Rubicon** (United States, en) — Source: https://teamrubiconusa.org/news-and-stories/2026-hurricane-season-forecast/ - **Wikipedia** (Global, en) — Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Atlantic_hurricane_season ### US weather broadcast - **Fox Weather** (United States, en) — Fox Weather reported the NOAA announcement from the Aircraft Operations Center in Lakeland, Florida, explaining the El Niño mechanism in accessible terms: increased wind shear at altitude disrupts the rotating structures that allow tropical systems to organise. The piece noted that 'below normal' does not mean 'no risk' and that a single major hurricane making landfall constitutes a disaster regardless of seasonal totals. > "NOAA reveals 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast as Super El Niño looms, predicting below-average season with 8-14 named storms." Source: https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/noaa-2026-hurricane-season-forecast-may ### US commercial weather service - **AccuWeather** (United States, en) — AccuWeather's season preview contrasted NOAA's forecast with its own and Colorado State University's projections, noting that the University of Arizona issued a notably higher estimate of 20 named storms. AccuWeather also covered the June 17 formation of Tropical Storm Arthur, which became the first named system and made landfall near Galveston, Texas as a minimal tropical storm before causing flooding across Louisiana. > "2026 Atlantic hurricane season is here; Tropical Storm Arthur forms June 17 as forecasters diverge on seasonal totals." Source: https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/2026-atlantic-hurricane-season-is-here-but-when-will-the-first-storm-form/1896722 ### US academic meteorology - **ESSIC (University of Maryland Earth System Science)** (United States, en) — ESSIC's scientific analysis of Tropical Storm Arthur noted that the system combined a tropical wave with remnants of eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Cristina before organising off Texas. Arthur made landfall near Galveston as a minimal storm but produced catastrophic rainfall: its remnants set a preliminary Louisiana state record of 29.06 inches of rain in under 12 hours near Cottonport. Aon estimated damages above US$100 million; at least four deaths were confirmed. > "Tropical Storm Arthur kicks off 2026 Atlantic hurricane season with flooding rains across southern US; remnants set preliminary Louisiana 24-hour rainfall record." Source: https://essic.umd.edu/tropical-storm-arthur-kicks-off-2026-atlantic-hurricane-season-delivers-flooding-rains/ ## Across the graph - Entities: Atlantic Hurricanes --- Canonical: https://rbtfl.xyz/zh/n/noaa-hurricane-season-forecast-2026