# Oil falls ~20% off its wartime peak as Hormuz reopens > The US-Iran MoU sends Brent toward $77 and Aramco cuts its July price to Asia — even as the war banked Riyadh a routing windfall through the East-West pipeline **Meta:** type: event · date: 2026-06-24 · heads: 谁的钱, 战争究竟如何收场 · 9 takes · 1 lenses · 4 regions ## Summary Oil fell roughly 20% from its 2026 wartime peak as the [US-Iran MoU](/zh/n/iran-us-ceasefire-mou) reopened the [Strait of Hormuz](/zh/n/hormuz-oil-supply-shock); after the 17 June signing Brent dropped to about $77 a barrel, a three-month low, with sharp swings around postponed talks and renewed-strike threats. Saudi Aramco followed by cutting its July Arab Light price to Asia by $6 to +$9.50 over Oman/Dubai — a larger-than-expected second straight monthly cut. Yet the war was not a clean loss for [Saudi Arabia](/zh/entity/saudi-arabia): Riyadh rerouted around 4 mb/d via the East-West (Petroline) pipeline to Yanbu, selling into the spike, and one estimate put weekly oil revenue about 10% above pre-war levels at the peak. With Hormuz reopening and [OPEC+ unwinding cuts](/zh/n/opec-plus-july-output), the price slide now squeezes the breakeven the kingdom needs after a [record deficit](/zh/n/saudi-q1-record-deficit). ## By the numbers - ~20% — fall in oil from its 2026 wartime peak. - ~$77 — Brent after the 17 June MoU, a three-month low. - $6 — Aramco's July Arab Light cut to Asia, to +$9.50 over Oman/Dubai. - ~4 mb/d — crude Riyadh rerouted via Petroline to Yanbu during the closure. ## Why it matters The same chokepoint that crushed Saudi export volume in Q1 handed it a pipeline-routing windfall on price; reopening reverses both — volumes return but prices fall. For [Mohammed Bin Salman](/zh/entity/mohammed-bin-salman), the ceasefire is a mixed settlement: barrels flow again, but the revenue per barrel that financed Vision 2030 erodes. ## What to watch - Where Brent settles as Hormuz traffic and OPEC+ supply normalise. - Aramco's August OSP as a read on Saudi market strategy. - The oil-price breakeven against the kingdom's widened deficit. ## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens) ### unlabelled - **Argaam** (Saudi Arabia, en) — Reports Saudi Aramco's official July OSP — Arab Light to Asia cut by $6 to +$9.50 over Oman/Dubai, a larger-than-expected second straight monthly cut — the company's own pricing signal as the ceasefire reopens flows. Source: https://www.argaam.com/en/article/articledetail/id/1910967 - **Asharq Al-Awsat** (Saudi Arabia, ar) — Saudi-owned read frames the slide as orderly normalisation — smoother crude flows through Hormuz easing prices — rather than a Saudi loss, keeping the focus on market stabilisation. > "Oil extends its slide on expectations of smoother crude flows through Hormuz." Source: https://english.aawsat.com/business/5288016-oil-extends-slide-more-1-expectations-smoother-crude-flows-hormuz - **Bloomberg** (United States, en) — Argues the war enriched Riyadh: by rerouting ~4 mb/d via the East-West (Petroline) pipeline to Yanbu and selling into a price spike, Saudi banked a windfall even as the strait shut — a counter to the pure-loss narrative. > "Saudi Arabia is set for an oil windfall after Hormuz boosts prices, rerouting crude via Yanbu." Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-01/saudi-arabia-set-for-oil-windfall-after-hormuz-boosts-prices - **Al Jazeera** (Qatar, en) — Markets-and-relief framing: oil down and equities up as the US-Iran framework is signed, foregrounding the global benefit of de-escalation over any producer's revenue position. > "Oil prices fall and stocks rally as the US and Iran sign a framework to end the war." Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/6/18/oil-prices-fall-stocks-rally-as-us-iran-sign-framework-to-end-war - **CNBC** (United States, en) — Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/22/oil-prices-wti-brent-crude-trump-iran-threat-strait-hormuz-closure.html - **gCaptain** (United States, en) — Source: https://gcaptain.com/saudi-arabia-set-for-oil-windfall-after-hormuz-boosts-prices/ - **OilPrice** (United States, en) — Source: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Arabia-Cuts-June-Oil-Prices-by-Less-Than-Expected-as-Hormuz-Risks-Persist.html - **Business Recorder** (Pakistan, en) — Source: https://www.brecorder.com/news/40419803/saudi-arabia-cuts-arab-light-june-osp-for-asia - **Al Jazeera (Hormuz slide)** (Qatar, en) — Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/6/17/oil-prices-continue-slide-amid-hopes-for-peace-opening-of-strait-of-hormuz ## Across the graph - Related: [[opec-plus-july-output]], [[hormuz-oil-supply-shock]], [[iran-us-ceasefire-mou]], [[saudi-q1-record-deficit]] - Entities: Mohammed Bin Salman, Saudi Arabia --- Canonical: https://rbtfl.xyz/zh/n/oil-price-iran-ceasefire