# The Overseas Base Race
> The intensifying competition among the United States, China, Russia, France, and India for military access rights and logistics infrastructure abroad, reshaping deterrence across every contested theatre.

**Meta:** type: reference · date: 2026-07-03 · heads:  · 4 takes · 4 lenses · 2 regions

## What it is

The Overseas Base Race is the competition among great powers to establish, expand, or deny military access rights, forward logistics infrastructure, and basing agreements abroad. A base can be a permanent garrison such as the US installations in Japan and Germany, a bilateral access arrangement granting rotational use of an ally's port, or a logistics agreement covering fuel, maintenance, and docking rights. What matters strategically is reach: who can place forces where, how fast, under what legal terms, and who can deny that to a rival.

The primary competitors are the United States, with 128 overseas bases across 51 countries; China, building its first overseas network from a standing start; France, anchored by overseas territories and Indian Ocean outposts; Russia, operating from Syria and Belarus while losing West African footholds; and India, pressing logistics pacts with 13-plus partners. The US-China axis sets the pace.

## History

The modern US overseas network crystallised in World War II and solidified during the Cold War. At its Cold War peak the United States operated from 134 bases in 18 countries, concentrated in West Germany, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines. The Soviet Union ran a parallel network through Warsaw Pact states and African and Asian clients. After the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991 the US network contracted before re-expanding after the September 2001 attacks, adding facilities across Qatar, Kyrgyzstan, Djibouti, and Eastern Europe.

China maintained no overseas facilities for decades, holding to a home-territory doctrine and formally opposing what it labelled "hegemonism." That ended in 2017 when Beijing opened a "logistics support base" at Djibouti, 10 km from the US Camp Lemonnier. Cambodia's Ream Naval Base became China's second facility, confirmed operational by mid-2025, extending PLA Navy reach toward the Strait of Malacca.

## Current state

As of mid-2026, the United States maintains approximately 128 overseas bases in 51 countries, with 67,200 troops permanently assigned in Europe and 113 military sites in Japan. The 2021 US Global Posture Review directed the Indo-Pacific as the priority theatre, ordering enhanced infrastructure in Guam and Australia, new rotational aircraft deployments, and expansion of nine Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement sites in the Philippines, four of which were added in 2023. Construction timelines through 2026-27 determine when that posture becomes operationally usable. The [West Philippine Sea surge of June 2026](/zh/n/philippines-wps-surge-jun29) accelerated works at three northern EDCA sites.

China is pursuing what US officials designate "Project 141": at least five overseas bases and ten logistics support sites by 2030, with roughly 18 candidate countries under watch. The [Australia-Vanuatu Nakamal Agreement of June 2026](/zh/n/australia-vanuatu-nakamal-jun29), which paid Vanuatu AU$500 million over a decade in exchange for barring any foreign military infrastructure from its territory, is the clearest recent blocking move in this race. Beijing's response was measured but pointed, per [中国指责澳大利亚'玩弄地缘政治'，回应纳卡马尔协议排除外国军事基地条款](/zh/n/china-vanuatu-australia-reaction-jun30). The AUKUS submarine-basing plan at HMAS Stirling in Western Australia, confirmed at the Singapore ministerial in [May 2026](/zh/n/albanese-aukus-singapore-virginia-subs), is the long-arc counter-move for the Indian Ocean southern approach.

In Europe, the US downgraded Army Europe from a four-star to a three-star command in June 2026, per [the Donahue removal](/zh/n/donahue-us-army-europe-hegseth-jun25), raising allied concerns about US commitment ahead of the NATO Ankara summit.

## Relationships

The Overseas Base Race is the macro frame for several sub-beats: Indian Ocean Bases (Djibouti, Ream, Hambantota in Sri Lanka, Diego Garcia in the British Indian Ocean Territory, and India's Andaman and Nicobar Islands command); Island-Chain Bases (the first and second island chains framing PLA coastal defence planning, with 12 new US EDCA sites in the Philippines and Australia since 2011); Arctic Militarisation (Norway, Finland, and Sweden's NATO integration alongside Russia's reinvestment at Novaya Zemlya); and Forward Posture, covering the legal mechanics of Status of Forces Agreements and rotation schedules.

## What to watch

- Whether China confirms a third overseas facility before 2030, with East Africa and the Atlantic coast as the most-cited candidate regions.
- The nine Philippine EDCA sites: delivery timelines and Chinese counter-pressure on the West Philippine Sea.
- US pressure on Denmark for expanded rights at Greenland's Pituffik Space Base, with Danish sovereignty resistance firm as of mid-2026.
- NATO eastern-flank force posture commitments at the Ankara summit on 7-8 July 2026.

## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens)

### official record
- **US Department of Defense: DoD Concludes 2021 Global Posture Review** (United States, en) — November 2021 Pentagon announcement of the Biden administration Global Posture Review, directing enhanced infrastructure in Guam and Australia, new rotational fighter and bomber deployments, and Indo-Pacific military construction as the primary theatre priority.
  Source: https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2855801/dod-concludes-2021-global-posture-review/

### US legislative analysis
- **Congressional Research Service: U.S. Overseas Basing: Background and Issues for Congress (R48123)** (United States, en) — July 2024 CRS report identifying 128 US overseas bases across 51 countries, categorising 68 as persistent and 60 as rotational-access sites, tracing strategic rationale, and documenting the US shift from large permanent installations toward partner-operated rotational facilities.
  Source: https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/R48123.html

### US foreign policy research
- **Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: Great Power Competition and Overseas Bases** (International, en) — August 2024 edited volume mapping US, Chinese, and Russian overseas base competition across the Indo-Pacific, Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, Indian Ocean, Middle East, and Arctic, with case-study analysis for each theatre and varied motivations per power.
  Source: https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/08/great-power-competition-and-overseas-bases-chinese-russian-and-american-force-posture-in-the-twenty-first-century?lang=en

### US strategic studies
- **CSIS: China's Military in 10 Charts** (United States, en) — CSIS chartbook tracking PLA capabilities including the shift toward a blue-water navy, official Chinese defence budget of nearly $247 billion in 2025, and the assessment that China's ability to project power beyond the first island chain remains modest but growing.
  Source: https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-military-10-charts

## Across the graph
- Related: [[australia-vanuatu-nakamal-jun29]], [[china-vanuatu-australia-reaction-jun30]], [[albanese-aukus-singapore-virginia-subs]], [[donahue-us-army-europe-hegseth-jun25]], [[philippines-wps-surge-jun29]], [[venezuela-southcom-airfield-jun29]]
- Entities: Overseas Base Race, Island Chain Bases, Indian Ocean Bases, Forward Posture, Basing Rights

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