# South Korea records 254,500 births in 2025, a 15-year high, but total fertility rate remains world's lowest at 0.80 > Statistics Korea's February 2026 provisional data show a second consecutive annual rise in births and a TFR recovery from 0.75 to 0.80, driven by an increase in marriages, while natural population decline continues for a 75th straight month **Meta:** type: event · date: 2026-02-25 · heads: 长远之局, 生活如何改变 · 5 takes · 3 lenses · 4 regions ## Summary South Korea's Ministry of Data and Statistics released provisional birth and death data on February 25, 2026 showing 254,500 births in 2025, up 6.8 percent from 2024 and the highest figure since 2010. The total fertility rate (TFR) rose to 0.80 from 0.75 in 2024, recovering to the 0.8 level for the first time since 2021 and marking a second consecutive year of improvement after South Korea had recorded the world's lowest TFR for several years running. The increase was attributed mainly to a multi-year rise in marriage registrations, which typically precedes a rise in births by one to two years. Despite the improvement, natural [South Korea Demography](/zh/entity/country/south-korea-demography) population decline continued for the 75th straight month, with deaths continuing to exceed births. In January 2026, the monthly TFR reached 0.99, the closest the figure has been to 1.0 since the early pandemic period, though analysts noted the monthly figure is seasonally volatile. Statistics Korea projects the South Korean population, currently at 51.7 million, will fall to 36.2 million by 2072. ## The split South Korean government and ruling-party media framed the two consecutive years of birth increase as evidence that the administration's pronatalist spending was beginning to have an effect. Opposition media questioned whether the rise was structural or a temporary marriage cohort effect and noted that South Korea has spent an estimated 280 trillion won on fertility policies since 2006 with little sustained impact on the TFR. International demographic research communities cautioned against reading a single two-year uptick as a reversal, citing that the TFR at 0.80 remains far below the replacement rate of 2.1. Nikkei Asia and East Asian economics press focused on the marriage-rate driver, noting that similar short-lived recoveries in Japan in the 1980s and 1990s did not become durable trends. North Korean state media has occasionally cited South Korea's birth crisis as evidence of capitalist social failure, though demographic data from North Korea is unavailable for comparison. ## By the numbers - 254,500, births in South Korea in 2025 (provisional; highest since 2010) - 0.80, total fertility rate for 2025 (up from 0.75 in 2024) - 6.8%, year-on-year increase in births in 2025 - 0.99, monthly TFR in January 2026 (approaching 1.0) - 11.7%, year-on-year increase in births in January 2026 - 75, consecutive months of natural population decline as of early 2026 - 51.7 million, current South Korean population - 36.2 million, Statistics Korea projection for 2072 (30% decline) - ~280 trillion won, cumulative pronatalist spending by South Korea since 2006 ## Why it matters South Korea is the most extreme current example of demographic contraction among middle- and high-income countries, and its experience informs policy and research across East Asia, where Japan, China and Taiwan face related although less acute trends. The two-year uptick in births creates a natural experiment: if the trend continues and strengthens, it may provide evidence that specific policy combinations (flexible work, childcare subsidies, housing support) can bend the curve; if it stalls, it will reinforce the academic consensus that structural economic factors in high-cost urban societies suppress fertility below levels that any plausible policy mix can reverse. The implications for pension systems, defence recruitment, healthcare demand and long-run GDP growth make [South Korea Demography](/zh/entity/country/south-korea-demography) one of the most closely watched demographic stories in the world. ## What to watch - Full-year 2026 birth data and whether the monthly 2026 figures sustain above 2025 levels - Marriage rate data as a leading indicator for births in 2027-28 - Whether South Korea's housing affordability interventions make measurable progress - Japanese and Chinese government reactions and whether the Korean uptick influences their own pronatalist programmes ## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens) ### unlabelled - **Statistics Korea / Ministry of Data and Statistics** (South Korea, en) — Statistics Korea provisional data released February 25, 2026: total births in South Korea reached 254,500 in 2025, up 16,100 (6.8%) from 2024. The figure was the highest since 2010 and the rate of growth the largest since 2007. Total fertility rate (TFR) for 2025 was 0.80, up from 0.75 in 2024, recovering to the 0.8 range for the first time since 2021. The rise was the second consecutive annual increase. Natural population decline continued for the 75th straight month. Source: https://www.korea.net/NewsFocus/Society/view?articleId=288047 - **CNN** (International, en) — Source: https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/06/asia/south-korea-population-fertility-rate-intl-hnk-dst - **Works in Progress** (United Kingdom, en) — Source: https://worksinprogress.co/issue/two-is-already-too-many/ ### East Asian business press - **Nikkei Asia** (Japan, en) — Nikkei Asia analysis of the Statistics Korea data: the increase in births was driven primarily by an increase in marriages over the preceding two years, reversing a long decline in marriage rates. Analysts cautioned that the upturn may be temporary, citing persistently high housing costs in Seoul and labour market conditions that deter young couples from having children. South Korea's TFR of 0.80 remains the world's lowest among countries reporting to OECD. > "South Korea's fertility rate rises for second year as marriages increase." Source: https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/demography/south-korea-s-fertility-rate-rises-for-second-year-as-marriages-increase ### South Korean economic press - **Seoul Economic Daily** (South Korea, en) — Seoul Economic Daily reports January 2026 monthly fertility data: monthly TFR reached 0.99, the first time it had approached the 1.0 threshold since the pandemic period. Year-on-year births rose 11.7% in January 2026. Natural population decline nonetheless continued for the 75th consecutive month. Analysts note the monthly figure is seasonally volatile and the annual TFR is the relevant policy indicator. > "Korea's monthly fertility rate hits 0.99, nearing 1.0 threshold." Source: https://en.sedaily.com/news/2026/03/25/koreas-monthly-fertility-rate-hits-099-nearing-10-threshold ## Across the graph - Entities: Country:south Korea Demography --- Canonical: https://rbtfl.xyz/zh/n/south-korea-birth-rate-2026