# South Korea's total fertility rate rises for two consecutive years in 2024 and 2025, from a record-low 0.72 to 0.80, on a surge in marriages > South Korea's total fertility rate rose from 0.72 in 2023, the lowest ever recorded by any country, to 0.75 in 2024 and then to 0.80 in 2025, the first back-to-back annual gains since 2007-2008; births reached 254,500 in 2025, up 6.8% on the year, driven by pandemic-delayed marriages catching up and an echo-boomer cohort entering peak childbearing age; South Korea has spent approximately 380 trillion won ($270 billion) on pro-natal policies since 2006 without previously reversing the trend **Meta:** type: event · date: 2026-02-25 · heads: 长远之局, 谁的钱 · 7 takes · 5 lenses · 5 regions ## Summary South Korea's Statistics Korea confirmed in February 2026 that 254,500 babies were born in 2025, up 6.8% from 238,300 in 2024 and the highest annual total since 2010. The total fertility rate rose to 0.80, up from 0.75 in 2024 and 0.72 in 2023, the last figure still the lowest TFR ever officially recorded by any country. The two consecutive years of increase are the first back-to-back birth gains since 2007-2008. Deaths of approximately 363,400 continue to exceed births, producing ongoing natural population decline. Statistics Korea attributed the rebound to two structural factors: a wave of pandemic-delayed marriages catching up (222,422 marriages in 2024, a 14.9% increase and a record in data going back to 1970), and a relatively larger echo-boomer cohort born in the 1990s entering peak childbearing years. ## The split South Korean government officials and the ruling party framed the two-year rebound as evidence that pro-natal investment was yielding results after two decades of failure, and President Yoon's government accelerated plans for a dedicated Ministry of Population Strategy and Planning with cabinet-level standing. South Korean demographers were more cautious: the two identified drivers (marriage catch-up and cohort bulge) are both transient effects that will expire within a few years, and the underlying structural factors depressing fertility (housing costs, education spending pressure, long working hours, and gender inequality in household labour) remain unchanged. The total amount South Korea has spent on pro-natal policy since 2006, approximately 380 trillion won ($270 billion), is the largest per-capita demographic investment by any government in recorded history, without a sustained reversal until the 2024-2025 uptick. ## By the numbers - 0.72: South Korea's TFR in 2023 (lowest ever officially recorded by any country) - 0.75: TFR in 2024 (first increase in 9 years) - 0.80: TFR in 2025 (first time above 0.8 since 2021; first back-to-back gains since 2007-2008) - 254,500: births in 2025 (up 6.8% YoY; highest since 2010) - 222,422: marriages in 2024 (up 14.9%; highest rate of increase since records began in 1970) - ~363,400: deaths in 2025 (natural population decline ~108,900) - 380 trillion won ($270 billion): total pro-natal spending by South Korea since 2006 - 0.58: Seoul TFR in 2024 (lowest for any major city) ## Why it matters South Korea's [South Korea Demography](/zh/entity/country/south-korea-demography) rebound is the most closely watched demographic data point in the world because South Korea's 0.72 TFR had become the benchmark for the maximum compression of fertility in an advanced economy. If the rebound sustains, it would challenge the demographic pessimism that has shaped policy responses in East Asia, Europe, and elsewhere. If it reverts, it confirms that structural fertility decline in post-industrial societies cannot be meaningfully reversed by financial incentives alone, even at the scale of $270 billion over two decades. The answer will become clearer by 2027-2028, when the pandemic catch-up cohort of marriages has worked through the system. ## What to watch - 2026 birth and TFR data (to be released February 2027), and whether the rebound is sustained for a third consecutive year - Whether the Ministry of Population Strategy and Planning is formally established and funded with structurally significant budgets - Whether South Korea's marriage rate remains elevated or falls back as the backlog of pandemic-delayed unions clears - How the TFR trajectory affects South Korean pension system reform and immigration policy debates ## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens) ### South Korea's official national statistics agency; 2025 vital statistics release covering births, deaths, marriages, and the TFR - **Statistics Korea** (South Korea, en) — Statistics Korea's February 2026 vital statistics release confirmed 254,500 births in 2025, up 6.8% from 238,300 in 2024 and the highest annual total since 2010. The total fertility rate rose to 0.80, up from 0.75 in 2024, the first time the TFR has been above 0.8 since 2021. Deaths of approximately 363,400 continued to exceed births, producing a natural population decline of approximately 108,900, the fifth consecutive year of natural decline. The TFR of 0.72 recorded in 2023 remains the lowest ever officially recorded by any country. Statistics Korea attributed the rebound partly to a surge in marriages from 2022 onward, as pandemic-delayed couples formalised unions, and partly to the arrival of a relatively larger echo-boomer cohort (born in the 1990s) in their peak childbearing years. > "Statistics Korea: 254,500 births in 2025, TFR 0.80; two consecutive annual gains after 2023's record-low TFR of 0.72, the first back-to-back increase since 2007-2008." Source: https://www.kostat.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20101000000&bid=11773&tag=&act=view&list_no=439008&ref_bid= ### US financial wire; covered the 2025 data release and assessed whether the rebound represented a durable trend or a demographic echo - **Bloomberg** (United States, en) — Bloomberg reported that South Korea's 2025 birth data extended the rebound into a second consecutive year, with births at 254,500 and the TFR at 0.80. The article quoted demographers cautioning that both the marriage surge and the echo-boomer cohort effect were temporary; once pandemic-delayed marriages were absorbed and the cohort aged out of prime childbearing, births could resume declining. South Korea's pro-natal spending, totalling approximately 380 trillion won ($270 billion) since 2006, was described as the world's largest per-capita demographic investment without a sustained reversal. > "Bloomberg: South Korea births rise for second year; TFR 0.80; demographers warn marriage catch-up and echo-boomer effects are temporary." Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-25/south-korea-s-baby-bump-extends-into-second-year-offering-hope ### Japanese financial daily with strong East Asia demographic coverage; comparative analysis of South Korea, Japan, and China's demographic trajectories - **Nikkei Asia** (Japan, en) — Nikkei Asia contextualised South Korea's two-year rebound against the continuing declines in Japan (TFR 1.19 in 2024) and China (TFR ~1.0 in 2025), noting that South Korea's marriage surge in 2024, with marriages up 14.9% to 222,422, was unprecedented in the records going back to 1970 and provided the raw input of couples that would drive births in 2025 and 2026. However, Nikkei noted that Korea's natural population decline continued, with deaths outpacing births by more than 100,000. > "Nikkei Asia: Korean marriages rose 14.9% to 222,422 in 2024, unprecedented in records since 1970; natural population decline continues." Source: https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/demography/south-korea-s-fertility-rate-rises-for-second-year-as-marriages-increase ### Qatar-based international broadcaster; feature reporting on the policy mix behind South Korea's 2024 uptick, including local government initiatives - **Al Jazeera** (Qatar, en) — Al Jazeera's feature on South Korea's birth rate increase profiled the range of government interventions, including local government 'love bingo' programmes to encourage dating, cash birth grants of 2 million won per child, monthly infant support payments of 1 million won for households with children under one, and the new '6+6 parental leave scheme' offering near-full wage replacement for both parents if each takes at least six months of leave. The piece quoted researchers who said marriage incentives, not direct birth incentives, were the most effective intervention. > "Al Jazeera: South Korea's pro-natal mix includes cash grants, monthly infant payments, and '6+6' near-full-wage parental leave for both parents." Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2025/3/3/how-south-korea-raised-its-birthrate-love-bingo-parental-support-and-more ### unlabelled - **The Conversation (Korea birth rate analysis)** (International, en) — Source: https://theconversation.com/south-koreas-birth-rate-is-rising-but-the-population-is-still-shrinking-276924 - **CNN (Korea population ministry announcement)** (United States, en) — Source: https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/09/asia/south-korea-government-population-birth-rate-intl-hnk - **VOA (researchers caution on rebound durability)** (United States, en) — Source: https://learningenglish.voanews.com/a/researchers-south-korea-s-birth-rate-increase-last-year-unclear-/7997203.html ## Across the graph - Entities: Country:south Korea Demography --- Canonical: https://rbtfl.xyz/zh/n/south-korea-birth-rebound-2025