# WMO raises El Niño intensity forecast to record-breaking level with 80-90% probability through November 2026 > Multi-model ensembles show sea-surface anomalies exceeding 2°C in the central and eastern Pacific, a trajectory not seen in 155 years of records; June 2026 global ocean temperatures already broke all prior June marks **Meta:** type: event · date: 2026-07-03 · heads: 长远之局, 生活如何改变 · 9 takes · 4 lenses · 7 regions ## Summary The World Meteorological Organization updated its El Nino outlook in early July 2026, raising the probability of El Nino conditions persisting through at least November to 80-90% and describing multi-model ensemble sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeding 2°C in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, a trajectory not recorded in 155 years of modern instrumental data. This would make the 2026 event the strongest El Nino since records began, surpassing the 1997-98 event (which itself caused an estimated US$45 billion in damages and 2,100 deaths globally). June 2026 global ocean temperatures already broke all prior June records: the Copernicus Marine Service confirmed the June 21 global average sea-surface temperature reached 21.0°C, eclipsing the 2024 June record. More than 46 million people in the United States faced extreme heat alerts by early July, with New York City approaching record high temperatures set in 1966. ## The split WMO and Copernicus frame the trajectory with scientific precision, careful to distinguish between what is forecast (80-90% El Nino persistence probability) and what has been observed (record June ocean temperatures). Smaller island developing states, coastal West African and Southeast Asian fishing communities, and Central American agriculture-dependent governments are already mobilising emergency planning based on the forecast, having lived through the 2015-16 and 2023-24 El Nino impacts on rainfall, fishery stocks, and crop yields. Oil and commodity markets, where El Nino's impact on LNG demand, palm oil, and grains is a direct pricing variable, are incorporating the WMO update into Q4 2026 contract pricing; vegetable oil futures already reflected El Nino risk in the FAO's June price data, which showed a 3.8% rise in the oils sub-index. ## By the numbers - 80-90%, WMO probability of El Nino persisting through November 2026 - 2°C+, multi-model ensemble sea-surface temperature anomaly in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific - 21.0°C, global average sea-surface temperature on June 21, 2026 (new all-time June record) - 155, years of modern instrumental records being compared against the current trajectory - 1997-98, the previous strongest El Nino event in the modern record, which caused an estimated US$45 billion in global damages - 46 million+, people under extreme heat alerts in the United States as of early July ## Why it matters A record-intensity El Nino affects nearly every food, water, and energy system on the planet through changed precipitation, temperature, and ocean circulation patterns. For agriculture, the direct risks include reduced monsoon rainfall in South Asia and West Africa, drought in Southern Africa, and reduced palm oil and rice output in Southeast Asia. For energy, warmer ocean temperatures reduce hydropower output in tropical regions and alter LNG demand patterns. For fisheries, the collapse of cold-water upwelling off Peru and Chile eliminates anchovy stocks, with cascading effects on global fishmeal and animal-feed markets. The 2026 event has a materially higher baseline temperature to build on than 1997-98 did, meaning the combined El Nino-plus-underlying-warming impact could exceed all prior precedents. ## What to watch - NOAA's Nino-3.4 index readings over August-September, which will confirm whether the event peaks at 1997-98 scale or exceeds it. - South Asian monsoon performance through August: a below-normal monsoon in India and Bangladesh would signal one of the most consequential El Nino impacts materialising. - WFP emergency pre-positioning: whether the humanitarian system front-loads food reserves in Southern Africa and Central America ahead of the Oct-Dec peak El Nino impact season. - Pacific Island emergency declarations and cyclone season projections for November 2026 to March 2027. ## Regional takes (batched by bias / lens) ### UN institutional coverage - **UN News** (United States, en) — UN News reporting on the WMO July 2026 update, which raises the probability of El Nino conditions persisting through at least November 2026 to 80-90% and describes multi-model ensemble sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeding 2°C in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific as trending toward intensity not observed in the modern 155-year instrumental record. > "UN warns 2026 El Niño trending toward record-breaking intensity; 80-90% probability through November." Source: https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/07/1167870 ### US broadcast news / climate desk - **CNN** (United States, en) — CNN reported Copernicus Marine Service confirmation that June 21, 2026 global average sea-surface temperature reached 21.0°C, eclipsing the 2024 June record by 0.18°F; Copernicus Climate Change Service director Carlo Buontempo warned that 'with ocean temperatures at these levels and El Nino on the horizon, we are likely to see more temperature records fall.' > "Global oceans break June temperature record , 'uncharted territory,' scientist says." Source: https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/01/climate/global-oceans-break-june-temperature-record ### European meteorological specialist press - **Severe Weather Europe** (Slovenia, en) — Severe Weather Europe contextualised the WMO forecast for European audiences, noting that a very strong El Nino typically intensifies the North Atlantic Oscillation's winter signal, increases the probability of a warm and dry European winter, and reduces summer rainfall over the Iberian Peninsula, adding a local climate dimension to the global agricultural and fishery risks. > "WMO flags El Niño 2026 trending toward record intensity , Europe faces warm dry winter risk." Source: https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/wmo-el-nino-2026-record-intensity-july/ ### unlabelled - **WMO (World Meteorological Organization)** (Switzerland, en) — WMO official press release updating the El Nino probability forecast to 80-90% through November 2026 and reporting multi-model ensemble anomaly data; source for the 2°C+ anomaly threshold and the characterisation of the event trajectory as potentially exceeding all records in the 155-year instrumental dataset. Source: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-update-el-nino-2026-intensity-forecast - **NOAA** (United States, en) — Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ - **Copernicus Climate Change Service** (European Union, en) — Source: https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-june-2026-temperature-record - **The Guardian** (United Kingdom, en) — Source: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/jul/03/el-nino-record-intensity-2026 - **Al Jazeera** (Qatar, en) — Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/3/wmo-el-nino-record-intensity - **Xinhua** (China, zh) — Source: https://www.xinhuanet.com/english/el-nino-2026/ ## Across the graph - Related: [[el-nino-2026-advisory]], [[la-nina-el-nino-transition-2026]], [[fao-food-price-index-jun2026]], [[fao-wfp-hunger-hotspots-june2026]] - Entities: Wmo, El Nino, Food Prices --- Canonical: https://rbtfl.xyz/zh/n/wmo-super-el-nino-forecast-jul2026