academic tracker
Par parti pris · 1 takes across the edition
Taiwan Security Monitor (Schar/GMU) · United States · PLA grey-zone pressure on Taiwan normalises as Lai's defence budget stays blocked
Cautions that day-to-day sortie counts swing widely; quieter stretches do not signal de-escalation but reflect weather, exercise cycles and political signalling. The trend line since Lai's 2024 inauguration is upward — over 300 ADIZ incursions a month at peak.
“Lulls in PLA aircraft activity reflect cycles and signalling, not a change of intent; the multi-year trend around Taiwan is sharply upward.”