Counterspace arms race accelerates as China and Russia stay out of the ASAT moratorium

Summary

The contest over counterspace weapons is sharpening. As of early 2026, 35+ states have pledged to observe a moratorium on destructive ASAT testing, but China and Russia have not joined, Russia dismissing it as an attempt to constrain competitors, China not formally responding. All four confirmed kinetic ASAT tests (US 1985, China 2007, India 2019, Russia 2021) created lasting debris. The US Space Force is accelerating counterspace deployment under the Trump policy, fielding three electronic satellite jammers to match China and Russia. Concern persists over a possible Russian nuclear ASAT, which would indiscriminately threaten LEO. The New START expiry in 2026 and the Golden Dome space layer add urgency: orbit is becoming a contested warfighting domain with norms failing to keep pace.

By the numbers

• 35+, states pledging no destructive ASAT tests; China and Russia outside.
• 4, confirmed destructive kinetic ASAT tests (US, China, India, Russia).
• 3, electronic satellite jammers the US Space Force is fielding.
• 2026, New START expiry, removing the last big arms-control restraint.

Why it matters

A single nuclear or large kinetic ASAT event could render a LEO shell unusable for years, hitting navigation, missile warning and broadband at once. With the moratorium partial and arms control lapsing, deterrence is replacing restraint.

What to watch

• Any new destructive ASAT test or on-orbit weapon demonstration.
• Movement (or not) on Russia's alleged nuclear-ASAT capability.
• Whether US offensive counterspace fielding triggers reciprocal moves.