General License X resumes Iranian crude exports with banking, insurance and shipping cover after the Hormuz reopening
Trade & Rules
Tariffs, subsidies, sanctions and export controls.
state of play
Two structural shifts are live. Washington paused Iran oil sanctions for 60 days, resuming dollar-denominated Iranian crude trade for the first time in four decades. Separately, Trump declined to renew the USMCA, converting a clean extension into a decade of annual reviews over ~$2 trillion in North American trade. Both are reversible, keeping investment on hold. Watch the August waiver deadline and the 1 July USMCA trilateral.
tracking
Tariff fronts
Sanctions & export controls
Blocs & deals
Industrial policy & subsidies
latest
pending-decision EU and India clinch the 'mother of all' trade deals
Two decades of stalled talks ended on geopolitics as much as commerce; the text is signed only on paper, with formal signature due by end-2026
France hosts a summit that hardens the Russia line and claims a 'deep change' in the US approach, at the cost of consensus theatre
pending-decision Modi and Trump fast-track the India-US trade pact at the G7
First leaders' talks in 16 months order a 'commercially meaningful' deal; USTR Greer flies to Delhi as a July 24 tariff cliff looms and Congress cries appeasement
'A deal is a deal' — MEPs approve the Turnberry framework while warning it is unbalanced
Brussels bans Brazilian meat, poultry and honey from September over growth-promoter use, weeks after Mercosur-EU took provisional effect
pending-decision Sheinbaum walks into the USMCA review having already tariffed China to please Washington
Mexico dodged Trump's reciprocal tariffs; now the July 1 joint review turns on whether it can keep China out of North America's supply chain
pending-decision USTR proposes forced-labor tariffs on 60 economies — Trump's post-IEEPA tariff vehicle
After the Supreme Court voided IEEPA tariffs, Section 301 becomes the new, uncapped lever against China, India, the EU and dozens more
Manufacturing utilisation near a decade low, retail growth at a three-year trough — and Beijing answers with 'anti-involution', not a consumer bailout
At a 35th-anniversary summit in Kazan, ASEAN and Russia adopt four cooperation documents; the Philippines' Marcos co-chairs even as he leans on Washington
A 30-day deadline lapses, Washington moves on a 25% levy, and Lula readies a retaliation law months before facing Flávio Bolsonaro
A 1 June proclamation cuts farm-equipment duties and rewards high US material content, building a new tariff wall
Every EU member now runs a deficit with Beijing; leaders weigh a 'menu' of trade measures
21-gun salute for Min Aung Hlaing, a 'shared future' joint statement, RMB–kyat settlement and Kyaukpyu — Beijing legitimises a ballot that barred the opposition
Washington forgoes the joint extension, leaving ~$2 trillion in North American trade under prolonged uncertainty