NOAA declares El Niño; cocoa and tropical crops price in a possible 'super' event
An official June advisory, with a 63% chance of a very strong event, pushes traders to front-run dry-season risk in West Africa and Southeast Asia
Summary
On 11 June 2026 NOAA issued an El Niño Advisory, putting odds of conditions at ~82% for May-July and a 63% chance of a very strong event during November-January, which would rank among the largest since 1950. Markets reacted first in cocoa: New York futures touched a 3.5-month high near $4,709/tonne in May. El Niño typically warms and dries West Africa (cocoa) and Southeast Asia (robusta coffee, palm), while threatening maize in southern Africa. Analysts caution that effects depend on intensity, and that ample prior-season stocks and Brazil's record coffee crop could blunt some impacts.
Why it matters
A strong El Niño would cut maize, cocoa, robusta-coffee and sugar output across the tropics, lifting global Food Prices for billions through 2027 — months before any crop actually fails.