Israeli gas drop forces Egypt into a $1.1bn emergency LNG scramble

Summary

Egypt's Israeli gas imports fell about 250 million cubic feet a day in early June, attributed to "routine maintenance" at the Tamar and Leviathan fields — on top of the war-driven cutoff at the end of February. EGAS fast-tracked roughly 3 million m³ of LNG for June, accelerating 60% of contracted volumes into a single week at a cost near $1.1bn, borne by the petroleum ministry. The deficit is structural: domestic output near 4 bcf/d against consumption above 6.4 bcf/d, widening with summer air-conditioning load and covered by regasification from four FSRU vessels. The monthly energy import bill reportedly jumped from $560m to $1.65bn, straining FX reserves. Egypt's power sector is roughly 82% gas-dependent. The scramble is the hard edge of the diplomacy El-Sisi trades on, and it feeds the inflation the central bank is fighting.

By the numbers

• ~250 mcf/d — drop in Israeli gas imports in early June (field maintenance).
• ~$1.1bn — cost of the fast-tracked June LNG; 60% of contracts pulled into a week.
• ~2.4 bcf/d — structural gap (output ~4 vs consumption >6.4 bcf/d).
• $560m → $1.65bn — reported jump in the monthly energy import bill.
• ~82% — share of Egypt's power generation that is gas-dependent.

Why it matters

Egypt's grid runs on gas it increasingly can't produce or reliably import, and the dash to buy LNG drains the foreign currency the IMF program is trying to rebuild. Dependence on Israeli flows turns a maintenance schedule into a national-security exposure, and every summer demand peak forces the same costly choice.

What to watch

• Whether Israeli flows recover after maintenance or stay constrained.
• The energy import bill's drag on FX reserves and the pound.
• Demand-side measures (earlier closing hours, reduced lighting) if cuts deepen.