Brent peaked near $118 before a US-Iran framework began unwinding the premium
Disputes & Conflicts
Active wars, standoffs and disputes — tracked by where each is heading.
state of play
The dominant thread is the Iran war, now de-escalating: a 14-point US-Iran memorandum signed 17 June halted fighting and reopened the Strait of Hormuz, but the truce runs 60 days and a Lebanon dispute could unravel it. A parallel Russia front continues, with Britain shifting from listing to seizing shadow-fleet tankers, while Ukraine moves to monetise its arsenal in the Gulf. Watch the Lebanon truce and the 60-day clock.
tracking
Active wars
Ukraine–Russia1 activePutin says the fuel crisis won't change the war — Ukraine's strikes say otherwise Iran / Gulf16 disruptedThe largest oil supply disruption on record Gaza / Israel — quiet Sudan — quiet Sahel — quiet DR Congo / M23 — quiet Myanmar — quiet Somalia — quiet Yemen — quiet Syria — quiet Haiti — quiet Ethiopia — quiet Nigeria — quiet Mozambique — quiet Colombia — quiet Pakistan insurgency — quiet Central African Rep. — quiet Cameroon — quiet Mexico (cartels) — quiet
Standoffs & frozen
Taiwan Strait — quiet South China Sea1 contested-resultMarcos balances ASEAN chair against China's Scarborough 'nature reserve' India–Pakistan — quiet Korea1 worseningKim unveils a new enrichment plant and orders 'exponential' nuclear growth Armenia–Azerbaijan — quiet Israel–Hezbollah — quiet India–China border — quiet Serbia–Kosovo — quiet Essequibo — quiet Western Sahara — quiet Cyprus1 worseningErdogan calls the new East-Med energy bloc an 'illusion' aimed at encircling Turkey Thailand–Cambodia — quiet Egypt–Ethiopia — quiet Morocco–Algeria — quiet Greece–Turkey — quiet Venezuela (internal) — quiet
Coups & state collapse
Ceasefires & peace processes
Proxy & arming dynamics
latest
General License X resumes Iranian crude exports with banking, insurance and shipping cover after the Hormuz reopening
Mexico's security chief reports the Jalisco cartel splintering 'like Sinaloa did', with a stepson among the contenders facing extradition
ELN talks frozen since the Catatumbo massacre; violence less deadly but more pervasive, monitors find, as the transition looms
Doval and Wang Yi note 'gradual normalisation' and an 'early harvest' sectoral track even as the MEA calls CPEC infrastructure in the China-held Shaksgam Valley 'illegal and invalid'
A state dinner on the G7 margins becomes the unexpected venue for an initial war-ending agreement
Manila condemns Beijing's 3,500-hectare reserve as a sovereignty grab, mandates Philippine names for sea features — while chairing ASEAN and courting a code of conduct
An October election looming, Ben-Gvir and Smotrich demand Hezbollah's destruction while opposition brands the US-Iran deal Netanyahu's failure
contested-result Pezeshkian sells the ceasefire at home while hardliners and parliament fight the terms
Iran's president defends US talks and warns of economic ruin, but a new supreme leader and an IRGC-shaped parliament constrain what he can concede
A decade after Modi vowed to quarantine Pakistan, Islamabad signs minerals and crypto deals with Trump's circle and an 'all-weather' upgrade with Xi — and India is left protesting from the sidelines
Qassem calls the disarmament drive a 'roadmap to annihilate' as Israel vows an open-ended stay in south Lebanon and keeps striking past the ceasefire deadline
Beijing pulls Kim back into orbit after Russia's courtship — 'good neighbour, good friend, good comrade', and silence on the bomb
The Gulf's most hawkish leader flies to Cairo to welcome the US-Iran deal and the strait's reopening — after demanding hard terms on Iran's missiles and nuclear program
Drone strikes on refineries trigger the worst fuel shortage on the Black Sea peninsula since 2014; the Kremlin and independent press describe it in opposite terms
Russia's spring-summer push around Pokrovsk grinds; Putin admits the drone war is hurting the economy and vows to bolster air defences
Moscow leans wholly on the Trump–Anchorage framework, demands Ukraine stop its advance, and tells Kyiv to sign before any meeting
Daily killings at a 12-year low under Harfuch's strategy, but the rising missing-persons count undercuts the headline
The WSJ says Mirage 2000 jets hit a Gulf island refinery, making the UAE the only third country to attack Iran — after Tehran fired hundreds of missiles and drones at Emirati targets
With Hormuz restricted and the Red Sea still avoided, carriers reroute via the Cape, lifting spot rates 29-129% on key lanes
Ankara condemns the strikes as illegal, mourns Khamenei, and offers Trump support to implement a ceasefire — with two-thirds of Turks wanting Turkey to stay out
The 16th NSAs' meeting in Delhi exposes the bloc's fault lines — China draws lessons from the Iran war while Tehran demands a stand on 'state terrorism' — ahead of a September Modi summit
Pakistan recasts itself from war-adjacent bystander to lead mediator; Pezeshkian's thank-you visit and Nobel chatter follow a 14-point deal reopening Hormuz and extending the truce
The chief of staff raises '10 red flags' over reservist strain while Israel tallies $1.1bn+ in missile damage and 45,000 home-front claims
President's Rule was lifted in February for a BJP chief minister; by June a Kuki-Naga rupture, mass hostage-taking and fresh shootings show the conflict is mutating, not ending
Gunmen seized pupils aged 2 to 16 and seven teachers in May; one teacher murdered, the rest still captive in June, amid a wider wave of mass abductions and Middle-Belt killings
June airstrikes on Khost, Kunar and Paktika break a brief calm; Islamabad claims 26 militants dead, Kabul and the UN count 13 civilians including 11 children
de-escalating US and Iran sign 14-point memorandum to end the war
Ceasefire extended 60 days for talks on nuclear program, sanctions and reconstruction; a Lebanon dispute threatens to unravel it
Royal Marines seize the 'Smyrtos' in the Channel days before a sanctions package hitting ships, insurers and procurement networks
Kyiv signs 10-year air-defence and drone partnerships with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar and plans 10 European export offices