SIPRI: global arms flows up ~10% as European imports surge and Russia collapses
US holds 42% of exports; Germany overtakes China; Ukraine is the world's top arms importer
Summary
SIPRI's March 2026 Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2025 found global flows up nearly 10%, driven by European demand. The United States supplied 42% of 2021–25 transfers (up from 36%); France was second at 9.8%; Russia's exports fell 64%; and Germany became the world's fourth-largest exporter, displacing China. Ukraine was the single biggest recipient at 9.7% of global imports (from 0.1% in 2016–20), with Poland and the UK the next European importers; European imports more than trebled. India remained the second-largest importer but is diversifying away from Russia. The data anchors the procurement story behind Rheinmetall says Germany has overtaken the US in conventional ammunition output, RTX's Raytheon books $3.7bn Patriot interceptor deal for Ukraine, scales European output and NORINCO arms revenue drops 31% as China's weapons exports stall.
By the numbers
- ~10% — rise in global arms flows.
- 42% — US share of 2021–25 exports (was 36%).
- 9.8% — France's export share (2nd).
- -64% — fall in Russian exports.
- 9.7% — Ukraine's share of global imports (top recipient).
- 4th — Germany's new exporter rank, displacing China.
Why it matters
The trade has re-polarised: America's dominance deepens, Europe becomes the buyer of last resort, Russia and China retreat. It is the macro frame for every procurement headline — who sells, who is dependent, and who is locked out.
What to watch
- Whether European import surge sustains or plateaus as domestic lines scale.
- India's supplier mix shifting toward France/US/Israel.
- Next SIPRI Top-100 producer revenues (late 2026).