A Gen Z uprising and a mutinous army unit topple Rajoelina in Madagascar
CAPSAT — the unit that made Rajoelina in 2009 — switches sides; Col. Randrianirina takes power, AU suspends the island, elections promised for 2027
Summary
On 12 October 2025 the CAPSAT military unit deposed President Andry Rajoelina in Madagascar after weeks of Gen Z protests over water and power cuts. CAPSAT — the same unit that brought Rajoelina to power in 2009 — switched sides; Rajoelina fled and the High Constitutional Court declared the office vacant, transferring power to Col. Michael Randrianirina. The African Union ruled it an unconstitutional change of government and suspended the island. A 24-month transition promises presidential elections in September 2027, but Randrianirina's early moves — an unpopular PM and the abrupt firing of his own cabinet — have raised doubts about his commitment to hand back power. The episode adds Madagascar to a belt of African military takeovers.
By the numbers
- 12 Oct 2025 — CAPSAT mutiny that ousted Rajoelina.
- 2009 — when the same unit first installed Rajoelina, then 34.
- 24 — months in the planned transition timetable.
- Sept 2027 — scheduled presidential election.
Why it matters
A youth uprising fused with an army mutiny to break Madagascar's political cycle — but handed power to an officer already showing autocratic reflexes. The transition's credibility tests whether a Gen Z revolt yields civilian rule or another entrenched junta in the Indian Ocean.
What to watch
- Whether the 2027 election timetable holds or slips.
- Randrianirina's treatment of the protest movement that enabled him.
- AU/regional pressure and any path back from suspension.